{"id":30958,"date":"2026-03-23T19:03:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T19:03:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ingden-pesole-riskten-kacis-kosullari-sterlindeki-yukselisi-sinirliyor-eur-gbp-adil-deger-tahmininin-hafif-uzerinde-kaliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T19:03:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T19:03:40","slug":"ingden-pesole-riskten-kacis-kosullari-sterlindeki-yukselisi-sinirliyor-eur-gbp-adil-deger-tahmininin-hafif-uzerinde-kaliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ingden-pesole-riskten-kacis-kosullari-sterlindeki-yukselisi-sinirliyor-eur-gbp-adil-deger-tahmininin-hafif-uzerinde-kaliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ING&#8217;den Pesole: Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131 sterlindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor, EUR\/GBP adil de\u011fer tahmininin hafif \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/GBP, ING\u2019nin k\u0131sa vadeli **adil de\u011fer** (kurun temel verilere g\u00f6re \u201cnormal\u201d kabul edilen seviyesi) tahmininin biraz \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ING, paritenin bu seviyenin yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu belirtiyor.\n\nAvrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) yetkililerinden a\u00e7\u0131klamalar bekleniyor; Piero Cipollone ve Ba\u015fekonomist Philip Lane bunlar aras\u0131nda. Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n da di\u011fer ECB konu\u015fmac\u0131lar\u0131yla birlikte \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc konu\u015fmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor.\n\n\u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) konu\u015fmac\u0131lar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yar\u0131n Ba\u015fekonomist Huw Pill var. Megan Greene, Sarah Breeden ve Alan Taylor da hafta ilerledik\u00e7e konu\u015facak.\n\n\u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u015eubat enflasyonu \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. ING, bunun daha az \u00f6nemli olabilece\u011fini, yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak **PMI\u2019lar\u0131n** (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksleri; \u015firketlerin yeni sipari\u015f, \u00fcretim ve istihdam gibi kalemleri \u00fczerinden ekonomide h\u0131zlanma\/yava\u015flamay\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6nc\u00fc anket g\u00f6stergeleri) daha fazla etki yaratabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\nING, k\u00fcresel **risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki** (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) kaymalar\u0131n EUR\/GBP\u2019de daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu durum, Sterlin\u2019in euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenme alan\u0131n\u0131 da daraltabilir.\n\n\u015eubat 2026\u2019ya ait son veriler, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun** (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) beklenmedik \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek kalarak %3,1\u2019de oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da BoE \u00fczerinde **s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu** (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma ve\/veya gev\u015femede acele etmeme) koruma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde son **HICP \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmini** (uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc, \u201cflash\/\u00f6nc\u00fc\u201d ise ilk h\u0131zl\u0131 tahmin) %2,3\u2019e geriledi. Bu tablo, ECB\u2019nin y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde **para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmesi** (faiz indirimleri ve daha destekleyici duru\u015f) i\u00e7in daha net bir zemin sunuyor.\n\nBu **politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131** (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlerde hareket etmesi) art\u0131k ana belirleyici. **Para piyasalar\u0131** (k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerinin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa), y\u0131l sonuna kadar ECB\u2019den toplam 75 **baz puan** (bp; 1 bp = %0,01) faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor. BoE taraf\u0131nda ise beklentiler d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte tek bir 25 baz puan indirime gerilemi\u015f durumda. B\u00fcy\u00fcyen **faiz fark\u0131** (iki \u00fclkenin faiz beklentileri aras\u0131ndaki makas), EUR\/GBP\u2019nin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere inmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel gerek\u00e7e sunuyor.\n\nAncak ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki risk i\u015ftah\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. K\u00fcresel hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda **oynakl\u0131k** (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) artt\u0131 ve **VIX endeksi** (S&#038;P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren, piyasa korkusu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc) son bir ayda ortalama 17 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, euroya Sterlin\u2019e k\u0131yasla d\u00f6nem d\u00f6nem destek vererek EUR\/GBP\u2019de genel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi i\u00e7inde rahats\u0131z edici y\u00fckseli\u015fler yarat\u0131yor.\n\nBu iki z\u0131t g\u00fcc\u00fcn etkisiyle, **t\u00fcrev** (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, paritede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryolardan fayda sa\u011flayan yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. 0,8600 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 **zarar-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131**n\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmak, **prim geliri** (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Bu strateji, parite yatay kal\u0131rsa veya d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131r\u0131r; politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n euronun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yapmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayan\u0131r.\n\nD\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak isteyen ancak riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde gelen euro deste\u011fini de hesaba katanlar i\u00e7in **ay\u0131 (bear) put spread** daha kontroll\u00fc bir alternatiftir. \u00d6rne\u011fin 0,8450 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir **sat\u0131m opsiyonu** (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131n\u0131r ve ayn\u0131 anda 0,8350 gibi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put sat\u0131larak maliyet d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcr. B\u00f6ylece paritede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedeflenirken, ani bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131nda parite y\u00fckselirse zarar daha y\u00f6netilebilir olur.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dikkat! EUR\/GBP adil de\u011ferin %0,5 \u00fczerinde; ECB-BoE politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcyen faiz fark\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Ancak VIX kaynakl\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131 euroyu kolluyor; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30958","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30958","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30958"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30958\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30958"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30958"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30958"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}