{"id":30953,"date":"2026-03-23T18:02:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T18:02:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-altindaki-yukselis-trendinin-temel-gostergelerden-ziyade-carry-trade-benzeri-davranis-sergileyen-ardisik-yatirimcilari-yansittigini-soyluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T18:02:50","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T18:02:50","slug":"td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-altindaki-yukselis-trendinin-temel-gostergelerden-ziyade-carry-trade-benzeri-davranis-sergileyen-ardisik-yatirimcilari-yansittigini-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-altindaki-yukselis-trendinin-temel-gostergelerden-ziyade-carry-trade-benzeri-davranis-sergileyen-ardisik-yatirimcilari-yansittigini-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities\u2019ten Daniel Ghali, alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin temel g\u00f6stergelerden ziyade carry trade benzeri davran\u0131\u015f sergileyen ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f piyasas\u0131, \u00f6nce merkez bankalar\u0131yla ba\u015flayan ve daha sonra kurumsal (b\u00fcy\u00fck fonlar) ve bireysel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131yla geni\u015fleyen ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k talep kaynaklar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, \u201ccarry trade\u201de (faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p faizi\/ getirisi daha y\u00fcksek varl\u0131\u011fa ge\u00e7me stratejisi) mekanik olarak benzer g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; ABD dolar\u0131 fazlalar\u0131 (\u00fclkeye giren dolar\u0131n, \u00e7\u0131kan dolardan fazla olmas\u0131yla olu\u015fan birikim) alt\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirilerek yeniden kullan\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nOrtado\u011fu\u2019nun ABD dolar\u0131 fazlalar\u0131 ise art\u0131k artan enerji maliyetleri ve \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Enerji ithal eden \u00fclkeler, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6demek i\u00e7in daha fazla nakit kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, dolarlar\u0131n\u0131 alt\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte zorlanabilir.\n\n<h3>Alt\u0131n \u0130\u00e7in Orta Vadeli G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\nAlt\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, orta vade ise \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Alt\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemdeki geri \u00e7ekilme (drawdown: zirveden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) \u00e7ok sert olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor; k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u0131r\u0131lgan.\n\nLisa Cook davas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ABD Y\u00fcksek Mahkemesi karar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli bir risk unsuru olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Emtia Ticaret Dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (CTA: trend izleyen, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman vadeli i\u015flemler ve sistematik kurallarla i\u015flem yapan fonlar) kalan alt\u0131n uzun (long: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fi beklentisiyle al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f) pozisyonlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu durumda CTAlar iki y\u0131ldan uzun s\u00fcredir ilk kez n\u00f6tr (flat: net pozisyonu s\u0131f\u0131r) hale gelebilir.\n\n2025 boyunca \u00f6zellikle Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki enerji \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkelerden gelen dolar fazlalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n rallisini destekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ancak \u0130ran\u2019la s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131 125 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutuyor; bu seviye 2022 enerji krizinden bu yana en y\u00fcksek fiyat. Bu durum s\u00f6z konusu \u00fclkelerin b\u00fct\u00e7elerini s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve dolarlar\u0131 alt\u0131n biriktirmek yerine i\u00e7 ihtiya\u00e7lara ay\u0131rmalar\u0131na neden oluyor.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 enstr\u00fcmanlar) i\u00e7in temel risk, CTAlar\u0131n toplu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131. Modeller, bu trend izleyen fonlar\u0131n 2024 ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7t\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6nemli b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ons ba\u015f\u0131na kritik 2.650 dolar destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, otomatik sat\u0131\u015f programlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek uzun s\u00fcredir s\u00fcren bu deste\u011fi zay\u0131flatabilir.\n\n<h3>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 Y\u00f6nl\u00fc Korunma Stratejisi<\/h3>\nBu tabloya g\u00f6re, k\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunma i\u00e7in put opsiyon (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almak temkinli bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) %18 ile son alt\u0131 ay\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckseldi. Bu art\u0131\u015f, Lisa Cook davas\u0131na ili\u015fkin Y\u00fcksek Mahkeme karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; piyasa belirgin bir fiyat hareketini fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\nAlt\u0131n i\u015flemi pratikte bir \u201ccarry trade\u201d gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131; merkez bankalar\u0131ndan ba\u015flay\u0131p ilk y\u00fckseli\u015fi takip eden bireysel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara kadar sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olu\u015ftu. \u0130lk para kayna\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a yap\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale geliyor. K\u00f6rfez \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Konseyi\u2019nin (GCC: K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri blo\u011fu) d\u00f6viz rezervlerinde \u00e7eyreklik bazda %15 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirilmesine dayal\u0131 bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor.\n\nAlt\u0131nda uzun vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yap\u0131sal talep nedeniyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalsa da orta vadede tablo zorla\u015f\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadede odak, b\u00fcy\u00fck CTA sermayesinin piyasadan \u00e7\u0131kma riski olmal\u0131. CTAlar\u0131n tamamen n\u00f6tr kalmas\u0131, iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir fiyat\u0131 destekleyen \u00f6nemli bir dayana\u011f\u0131n ortadan kalkmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alt\u0131nda ralli carry trade benzeri dolar fazlalar\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; ancak Ortado\u011fu b\u00fct\u00e7eleri ve \u0130ran gerilimi kayna\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. 2.650$ alt\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa CTA sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131zlanabilir; put opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30953","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30953","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30953"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30953\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30953"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30953"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30953"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}