{"id":30951,"date":"2026-03-23T17:04:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T17:04:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobank-analistleri-ras-laffandaki-grev-ve-hurmuzun-kapanmasinin-lng-arz-fazlasini-bitirdigini-ttf-gaz-fiyatlarinin-sert-sekilde-yeniden-fiyatlandigini-soyledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T17:04:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T17:04:37","slug":"rabobank-analistleri-ras-laffandaki-grev-ve-hurmuzun-kapanmasinin-lng-arz-fazlasini-bitirdigini-ttf-gaz-fiyatlarinin-sert-sekilde-yeniden-fiyatlandigini-soyledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobank-analistleri-ras-laffandaki-grev-ve-hurmuzun-kapanmasinin-lng-arz-fazlasini-bitirdigini-ttf-gaz-fiyatlarinin-sert-sekilde-yeniden-fiyatlandigini-soyledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank analistleri, Ras Laffan\u2019daki grev ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n LNG arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131 bitirdi\u011fini, TTF gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sert \u015fekilde yeniden fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank analistleri, Ras Laffan\u2019daki grev ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131n LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Hollanda TTF (Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ana do\u011fal gaz fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. 2026\u2019n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyre\u011fi (Q2) i\u00e7in TTF fiyat\u0131n\u0131 61 \u20ac\/MWh (megavat saat ba\u015f\u0131na avro; gaz fiyatlar\u0131nda yayg\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc birimi) \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcler. 2026 y\u0131l geneli yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 \u20ac\/MWh, 2027 i\u00e7in ise 42 \u20ac\/MWh tahmin ettiler.\n\nDaha \u00f6nce, ticari gemilere ve k\u0131y\u0131 altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n tanker hareketlerini neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131ra indirmesi sonras\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn nisan ba\u015f\u0131na kadar kapal\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayd\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirttiler. Bunun k\u00fcresel LNG ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birini aksatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekleyen analistler, bo\u011faz\u0131n fiilen nisan sonuna kadar kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.\n\n2026\u2019da toplam kullan\u0131labilir LNG arz\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 443 milyon ton, 2025\u2019te ise 442 milyon ton olarak hesaplad\u0131lar. Yeni ABD LNG arz\u0131n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika\u2019daki kesintileri telafi edemeyece\u011fini, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n da 2026 boyunca net ithalat\u00e7\u0131 (yani ihra\u00e7 edenden fazla ithal eden \u00fclke) kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylediler.\n\nAnalistler, nisan sonunda yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma olsa bile enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n temmuz veya a\u011fustostan \u00f6nce normale d\u00f6nemeyece\u011fini belirtti. Katar\u2019\u0131n LNG altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n da sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi ak\u0131\u015f seviyelerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engelledi\u011fini ifade ettiler.\n\nQ3\u2013Q4 2026 (3. ve 4. \u00e7eyrek) TTF tahminlerini s\u0131ras\u0131yla 50 \u20ac\/MWh ve 48 \u20ac\/MWh\u2019a y\u00fckselttiler. Avrupa ve Asya\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 LNG kargolar\u0131 (gemilerle ta\u015f\u0131nan y\u00fck) i\u00e7in rekabet etti\u011fini s\u00f6ylediler.\n\nDo\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki belirgin yeniden fiyatlama, LNG bollu\u011fu d\u00f6neminin bitti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle hareket etmeyi gerektiriyor. Q2 TTF kontratlar\u0131 (belirli bir tarihte teslimat i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) art\u0131k 61 \u20ac\/MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, ana strateji May\u0131s ve Haziran 2026 vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (gelecekteki bir tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnden sabitleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) uzun \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438\uc158 (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) olu\u015fturmakt\u0131r; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa bu yeni durumu hen\u00fcz tam olarak fiyatlam\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Nisan TTF kontrat\u0131 ise son bir haftada %15\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselerek 55 \u20ac\/MWh civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filime i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBu tahmin, belirgin bir \u201cbackwardation\u201d (yak\u0131n vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n ileri vadeli fiyatlardan daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131) yarat\u0131yor; Q2 fiyatlar\u0131, Q3 i\u00e7in beklenen 50 \u20ac\/MWh\u2019\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde. Bu yap\u0131, takvim spread i\u015flemlerini (farkl\u0131 vadelerde ayn\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnde e\u015f zamanl\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) destekliyor: Q2 kontratlar\u0131nda uzun, ayn\u0131 anda 2026 Q4 veya 2027 Q1 kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438\uc158 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) alarak yak\u0131n vadedeki y\u00fcksek primi de\u011ferlendirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131), 2022 enerji krizini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde fiyatlar 300 \u20ac\/MWh\u2019\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu da arz kesintisi derinle\u015firse 61 \u20ac\/MWh\u2019\u0131n temkinli bir hedef olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n\nGas Infrastructure Europe\u2019un (Avrupa gaz altyap\u0131s\u0131 verisi yay\u0131mlayan kurum) son verilerine g\u00f6re, 2025\/2026 k\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan Avrupa gaz depolar\u0131 %58 dolulukla \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ancak enjeksiyon sezonu (yaz aylar\u0131nda depolara yeniden gaz basma d\u00f6nemi) ciddi bi\u00e7imde k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 LNG arz\u0131yla ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131ndan bu tampon s\u0131nanacak. Piyasadaki arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, gelecek k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in depolar\u0131 doldurmay\u0131 \u00e7ok pahal\u0131 ve zor hale getirecek; bu da y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda fiyatlar\u0131 destekleyecek.\n\nAsya ile kalan LNG kargolar\u0131 i\u00e7in rekabet kritik hale geliyor. Asya\u2019daki JKM referans\u0131 (Asya LNG spot fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) ile Avrupa TTF aras\u0131ndaki fark 2 \u20ac\/MWh\u2019a kadar geriledi; bu, Asyal\u0131 elektrik ve gaz \u015firketlerinin (utilities) Avrupa\u2019ya gidebilecek arz\u0131 almak i\u00e7in agresif fiyat verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu fark\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 Avrupa al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in ge\u00e7ici bir rahatlamaya, daralmas\u0131 ise bask\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gazda yeni \u015fok dalgas\u0131: Ras Laffan grevi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn uzayan kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 LNG arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131 bitirdi, TTF\u2019yi u\u00e7urdu. Rabobank Q2\u201926 61 \u20ac\/MWh; y\u0131l 50, 2027 42. Avrupa-Asya rekabeti sertle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30951","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30951"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30951\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30951"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30951"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30951"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}