{"id":30943,"date":"2026-03-23T15:07:33","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T15:07:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bnyden-bob-savage-iran-baglantili-enerji-soklarinin-ardindan-ecbnin-sahin-durusu-kisa-vadeli-faizleri-yukseltirken-enflasyon-beklentileri-capalanmis-kaldi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T15:07:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T15:07:33","slug":"bnyden-bob-savage-iran-baglantili-enerji-soklarinin-ardindan-ecbnin-sahin-durusu-kisa-vadeli-faizleri-yukseltirken-enflasyon-beklentileri-capalanmis-kaldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bnyden-bob-savage-iran-baglantili-enerji-soklarinin-ardindan-ecbnin-sahin-durusu-kisa-vadeli-faizleri-yukseltirken-enflasyon-beklentileri-capalanmis-kaldi\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY\u2019den Bob Savage: \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015fu k\u0131sa vadeli faizleri y\u00fckseltirken enflasyon beklentileri \u00e7apalanm\u0131\u015f kald\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"\u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji \u015foku, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131), \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve FOMC (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz karar organ\u0131) beklenenden daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli) bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde k\u0131sa vadeli faizler y\u00fckselirken, enflasyon beklentilerinin \u201ckontrol alt\u0131nda\u201d oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.\n\nBa\u015fa ba\u015f enflasyon (tahvillere yans\u0131yan piyasa enflasyon beklentisi) h\u0131zla y\u00fckseldi ve getiri e\u011frileri yatayla\u015ft\u0131 (k\u0131sa ve uzun vadeli faiz fark\u0131 azald\u0131). Piyasalar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 revize etti; ECB ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelmiyor\u201d (ge\u00e7ici say\u0131p politika tepkisini ertelemiyor).\n\nYeni faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7in, beklentilerdeki de\u011fi\u015fimin ve gelecek verilerin net destek vermesi gerekecek. S\u0131radaki odak, Mart ay\u0131na ait \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI anketleri (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; ekonomik faaliyetin erken g\u00f6stergesi) ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ifo endeksi (i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcveni g\u00f6stergesi). Bu veriler; b\u00fcy\u00fcme, sanayi ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar \u00fczerindeki etkileri, \u00f6zellikle de girdi maliyeti bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 (enerji\/ham madde gibi \u00fcretim maliyetleri) g\u00f6sterebilir.\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l \u0130ran\u2019la gerilimlerin tetikledi\u011fi enerji \u015foku, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 \u015fahin bir tepkiye zorlad\u0131; bug\u00fcn bunun tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. K\u0131sa vadeli faizler, ECB\u2019nin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 ge\u00e7ici g\u00f6rmeyip s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gitmesiyle bir dizi faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131. Bu durum, temel ekonomik gidi\u015fatla belirgin bir uyumsuzluk yaratt\u0131. Piyasa erken bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken getiri e\u011frisi yatayla\u015ft\u0131.\n\nVeriler, 2025\u2019te \u015f\u00fcphe duyuldu\u011fu gibi bu faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n gerek\u00e7esinin tam olarak kar\u015f\u0131lanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde HICP (AB uyumlu t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) geriledi; son veriler enflasyonun %2,3\u2019e indi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, \u015fok sonras\u0131 zirvelerin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda ve ECB\u2019nin hedefin\u0259 yak\u0131n. Bu tablo, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde arz kaynakl\u0131 (maliyet ve tedarik etkisi) ve ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu; uzun vadeli beklentilerin \u201c\u00e7apadan kopmas\u0131\u201d (kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek enflasyona yerle\u015fmesi) anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nBu nedenle t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flem, opsiyon gibi ara\u00e7larla i\u015flem yapanlar) ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki \u015fahin duru\u015fun tersine d\u00f6nmesine odaklanmal\u0131. Ekonomik yava\u015flama ana risk haline gelirken, faiz swap\u2019lar\u0131 (sabit faiz\u2013de\u011fi\u015fken faiz takas\u0131; faiz riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r) k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden fayda sa\u011flayacak \u015fekilde kurgulanabilir. ECB\u2019nin y\u0131l bitmeden faiz indirimi sinyali vermesi gerekece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2025\u2019teki sert \u201cfaiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131\u201d geri sar\u0131l\u0131rken, EURIBOR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (Euro B\u00f6lgesi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisine dayal\u0131 kontratlar) daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) patikaya oynayanlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olu\u015fuyor.\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l Almanya\u2019da ifo ve PMI verileri erken uyar\u0131 vermi\u015f, girdi maliyetleri h\u0131zla artarken sanayi g\u00fcveni zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn Euro B\u00f6lgesi imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 48,5 gelmesi, daralma b\u00f6lgesinde oldu\u011fumuzu teyit ediyor (50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralma). Bu, politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ve s\u00fcren belirsizli\u011fin do\u011frudan sonucu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) de\u011ferlendirebilir; b\u00f6yle bir senaryo ECB\u2019nin gev\u015femesi (faiz indirimi\/yumu\u015fama) y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131r.\n\n\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck g\u00fcven g\u00f6stergeleri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Daha fazla zay\u0131flama, ECB\u2019ye 2025\u2019teki \u015fahin \u00e7izgiden b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi daha fazla destekleyen bir duru\u015fa d\u00f6nmek i\u00e7in gerekli zemini sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Bu da k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil piyasalar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat\/faiz dalgalanmas\u0131) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ilk faiz indiriminin zamanlamas\u0131 her yeni veriyle yeniden fiyatlan\u0131yor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foku, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden \u015fahinle\u015ftirirken Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde k\u0131sa faizler s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, e\u011fri yatayla\u015ft\u0131. Ancak enflasyon %2,3\u2019e indi; PMI\/ifo zay\u0131f. Piyasada 2025 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n geri sar\u0131m\u0131, faiz indirimi fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30943","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30943"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30943\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}