{"id":30941,"date":"2026-03-23T15:06:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T15:06:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/mufgden-lee-hardman-yen-g10-para-birimlerini-geride-birakti-bojnin-faiz-artirimi-riskleriyle-usd-jpy-160in-altinda-kaliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T15:06:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T15:06:30","slug":"mufgden-lee-hardman-yen-g10-para-birimlerini-geride-birakti-bojnin-faiz-artirimi-riskleriyle-usd-jpy-160in-altinda-kaliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/mufgden-lee-hardman-yen-g10-para-birimlerini-geride-birakti-bojnin-faiz-artirimi-riskleriyle-usd-jpy-160in-altinda-kaliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG\u2019den Lee Hardman: Yen, G10 para birimlerini geride b\u0131rakt\u0131; BoJ\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 riskleriyle USD\/JPY 160\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY 160,00 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yen, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda di\u011fer G10 para birimlerinin \u00e7o\u011funa k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. Yetkililerin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, paritenin 160,00\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi (kur \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan i\u015flem yaparak y\u00f6n verme) riskini g\u00fcndemde tutuyor.\n\nJaponya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130\u015flerden Sorumlu Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Atsushi Mimura, spek\u00fclatif hareketlere (k\u0131sa vadeli al-sat ama\u00e7l\u0131 hareketler) kar\u015f\u0131 gerekti\u011finde t\u00fcm ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki (gelecekte teslimli petrol s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) spek\u00fclasyonun d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi\u011fine dair iddialara de\u011findi; kur hareketlerinin ekonomi ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015fam \u00fczerindeki etkisine dikkat \u00e7ekti.\n\n<h3>BoJ Politika Beklentileri<\/h3>\nPiyasalar, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) politika faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temel faiz oran\u0131) en erken gelecek ayki toplant\u0131da art\u0131rma ihtimaline odakland\u0131. Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar toplam 16 baz puanl\u0131k (bps; y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, 0,01) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi fiyatland\u0131.\n\n\u00dccret verileri daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve daha az destekleyici ad\u0131mlar) beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Rengo, ortalama \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 %5,26 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk okumas\u0131 %5,46 idi.\n\nTemel maa\u015f (ikramiye ve ek \u00f6demeler hari\u00e7) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %3,85 oldu ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde geldi\u011fi \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u0131l oldu.\n\nMetinde, makalenin bir yapay zeka arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi\u011fi belirtiliyor.\n\n<h3>Opsiyon Piyasas\u0131 Sinyalleri<\/h3>\nUSD\/JPY paritesinin 160,00 seviyesini a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in net bir tavan olu\u015fturuyor. Bu tavan, yetkililerden gelebilecek do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (merkez bankas\u0131\/hazine taraf\u0131ndan piyasadan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) tehdidi ve BoJ\u2019un faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle daha da belirginle\u015fiyor. Bu unsurlar, piyasay\u0131 olas\u0131 sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli tutuyor.\n\nMimura\u2019n\u0131n \u201ct\u00fcm m\u00fcmk\u00fcn \u00f6nlemler\u201d uyar\u0131lar\u0131, ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnekler nedeniyle ciddiye al\u0131n\u0131yor. 2022\u2019nin sonlar\u0131nda yap\u0131lan geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli m\u00fcdahalelerde Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, para birimini desteklemek i\u00e7in 9 trilyon yenin \u00fczerinde harcama yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, 160,00-162,00 band\u0131n\u0131 USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun pozisyon (paritenin y\u00fckselece\u011fi beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131mak i\u00e7in riskli bir b\u00f6lge haline getiriyor.\n\nOpsiyon piyasas\u0131 bu riski fiyatl\u0131yor: USD\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k risk reversal (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m opsiyonu ile sat\u0131m opsiyonu fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) verileri, sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma\/pozisyon) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call; fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine y\u00f6nelik) g\u00f6re belirgin prim verildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynamaktan \u00e7ok paritede olas\u0131 ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. 161,00 \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (\u015fu anki fiyata g\u00f6re k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in daha fazla hareket gerektiren) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak, bu tavanl\u0131 ortamda prim geliri (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) elde etmeye y\u00f6nelik bir strateji olabilir.\n\nG\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 veriler, Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131 gibi yak\u0131n bir tarihte yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini destekliyor. Rengo anla\u015fmalar\u0131yla \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u0131l %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 ithalat kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Piyasa yakla\u015f\u0131k 16 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ek bir olas\u0131l\u0131k haline getiriyor.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, paritenin bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131ndan (dar aral\u0131kta dalgalanma) ya da USD\/JPY\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler daha temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Vadeli i\u015flemlerle (futures; ileri tarihli standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) k\u0131sa pozisyon (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) almak veya sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften do\u011frudan yararlanma yolu sunar. Alternatif olarak, call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki al\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte satarak\/getiriyi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle hedefleyerek yap\u0131lan strateji) temmuz 2024 zirvesi yak\u0131n\u0131 gibi \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle gelir \u00fcretmeyi ama\u00e7layabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/JPY 160\u2019a dayand\u0131: Yen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, m\u00fcdahale riski masada. Mimura \u201ct\u00fcm ad\u0131mlar\u201d dedi. BoJ\u2019da erken faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (16 bp) beklentisi ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tavan\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Opsiyonlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f korunmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30941","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30941","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30941"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30941\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30941"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30941"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30941"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}