{"id":30932,"date":"2026-03-23T13:03:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T13:03:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/10000-seviyesi-yakininda-abd-dolar-endeksi-son-donemde-guclenen-sahin-fed-gorunumuyle-yukseliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T13:03:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T13:03:09","slug":"10000-seviyesi-yakininda-abd-dolar-endeksi-son-donemde-guclenen-sahin-fed-gorunumuyle-yukseliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/10000-seviyesi-yakininda-abd-dolar-endeksi-son-donemde-guclenen-sahin-fed-gorunumuyle-yukseliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"100,00 Seviyesi Yak\u0131n\u0131nda ABD Dolar Endeksi, Son D\u00f6nemde G\u00fc\u00e7lenen \u015eahin Fed G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle Y\u00fckseliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) ikinci i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi ve pazartesi Avrupa seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 99,80 seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Endeks, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7er.\n\nOrtado\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun y\u00fckselmesiyle \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) talebi artt\u0131 ve ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Haberlere g\u00f6re ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019a H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 i\u00e7in 48 saat s\u00fcre verdi; aksi halde enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fi belirtildi.\n\n<h3>Ortado\u011fu Gerginli\u011fi G\u00fcvenli Liman Talebini Art\u0131r\u0131yor<\/h3>\nDi\u011fer haberlere g\u00f6re Washington, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir petrol ihracat noktas\u0131 olan Kharg Adas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in kara operasyonunu (\u201cground operation\u201d: sahada kara birlikleriyle y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen askeri harek\u00e2t) de\u011ferlendiriyor. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131, ABD\u2019nin ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 halinde bo\u011faz\u0131 kapataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Tahran ise enerji, bili\u015fim (IT: bilgi teknolojileri) ve deniz suyunu i\u00e7me suyuna \u00e7eviren tesisler (\u201cdesalination\u201d: tuzdan ar\u0131nd\u0131rma) dahil ABD ve \u0130srail varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hedef alabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.\n\nABD dolar\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015ften de destek buldu. Y\u00fcksek petrol, enflasyonun (fiyatlar\u0131n genel d\u00fczeyindeki art\u0131\u015f) y\u00fckselmesi riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu da piyasada, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya ya da art\u0131rmaya yatk\u0131n) duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\nMart ay\u0131nda Fed, faizleri %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde 11\u2019e 1 oy kulland\u0131. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131ndan toplant\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) baz al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131 nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmama ihtimalini %85,5 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\n<h3>Dalgalanma ve Politika Riskine G\u00f6re Konumlanma<\/h3>\nArt\u0131k odakta, CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) var. VIX, ABD hisse senetlerinde beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinir ve 18,5 civar\u0131nda. Bu seviye panik de\u011fil ama tam bir sakinlik de de\u011fil; bu da korunma alman\u0131n g\u00f6rece ucuz olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Jeopolitik ya da ekonomik s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck hisse endekslerinde uzun vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\nPetrol taraf\u0131nda da piyasalar ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki \u015foku hat\u0131rl\u0131yor. WTI ham petrol (ABD t\u00fcr\u00fc ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil fiyat\u0131 81 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Yak\u0131n vadeli petrol vadeli i\u015flem opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite (opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) y\u00fcksek; bu, arz tarafl\u0131 haberlerle fiyatlar\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7rayabilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortamda petrol \u00fczerinde al\u0131m spread\u2019i (call spread: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p sat\u0131larak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske, \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek prim \u00f6demeden pozisyon almak i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\nFed\u2019in duru\u015fu, art\u0131k ana tema. Enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle Fed, faizleri %3,75\u2013%4,00 band\u0131na y\u00fckseltti. Son T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Bu, k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimi umudunu zay\u0131flatt\u0131 ve yeni bir art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalini yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.\n\nBu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda en kritik alan, faiz t\u00fcrevleri (faiz oran\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) piyasas\u0131. Bir sonraki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) yakla\u015f\u0131rken, Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine opsiyon almak, sonuca do\u011frudan pozisyonlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Piyasa \u201csabit\u201d fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak beklenenden s\u0131cak gelen enflasyon verisi nedeniyle Fed\u2019den gelebilecek \u201c\u015fahin\u201d mesajlar, fiyatlamalarda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fime neden olabilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ortado\u011fu gerilimi DXY\u2019\u0131 99,80\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131rken g\u00fcvenli liman talebi dolar lehine g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Petrol ve enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 Fed\u2019in \u015fahin beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131yor; VIX 18,5: korunma stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30932","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30932"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30932\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30932"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30932"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30932"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}