{"id":30928,"date":"2026-03-23T12:03:20","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T12:03:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobanktan-benjamin-picton-iran-catismasi-ve-hurmuz-bogazi-tehditleri-petrol-arzina-yonelik-endiseleri-yuksek-tutuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T12:03:20","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T12:03:20","slug":"rabobanktan-benjamin-picton-iran-catismasi-ve-hurmuz-bogazi-tehditleri-petrol-arzina-yonelik-endiseleri-yuksek-tutuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobanktan-benjamin-picton-iran-catismasi-ve-hurmuz-bogazi-tehditleri-petrol-arzina-yonelik-endiseleri-yuksek-tutuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019tan Benjamin Picton: \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 tehditleri petrol arz\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feleri y\u00fcksek tutuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank K\u0131demli Piyasa Stratejisti (piyasa y\u00f6n\u00fc ve riskleri analiz eden uzman) Benjamin Picton, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 (petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kritik dar ge\u00e7it\/bo\u011faz) etraf\u0131ndaki tehdidin petrol piyasalar\u0131nda riski y\u00fcksek tuttu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Picton\u2019a g\u00f6re \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n misillemesi, K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 (petrol\/gaz \u00fcretim ve ta\u015f\u0131ma tesisleri) hedef alabilir ve arz\u0131 (piyasaya sunulan miktar) etkileyebilir.\n\nPicton, ABD\u2019nin geri ad\u0131m atmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmeyece\u011fini belirtti. Bu durumun \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7en ak\u0131\u015f \u00fczerinde kontrol kurmas\u0131na, \u201cge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti\u201d talep etmesine ve y\u00fcklerin \u00c7in yuan\u0131 (CNY) \u00fczerinden fiyatlanmas\u0131 gibi \u015fartlar dayatmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini ifade etti.\n\n<h3>En K\u00f6t\u00fc Durum Arz Kesintisi Riskleri<\/h3>\nPicton, petrol ve gaz altyap\u0131s\u0131na gelebilecek hasar\u0131n piyasay\u0131 \u201cen k\u00f6t\u00fc durum\u201d senaryolar\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Buna g\u00f6re enerji ve di\u011fer emtia (petrol, do\u011falgaz, metal gibi ham maddeler) arz\u0131 belirsiz bir s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalabilir. Picton, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ve genel riskli varl\u0131klarda (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011feri d\u00fc\u015febilen varl\u0131klar; \u00f6r. hisseler) h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olas\u0131 g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini belirtti.\n\nPicton, hafta sonuna do\u011fru al\u0131nan ve Hint LPG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f petrol gaz\u0131; propan\/b\u00fctan gibi) kargolar\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7i\u015fine izin veren ad\u0131mlara i\u015faret etti. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, benzer bir d\u00fczenlemenin yak\u0131nda Japonya ile de sa\u011flanabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Bunun k\u0131sa vadede bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltabilece\u011fini; ancak ge\u00e7i\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz tamamen a\u00e7\u0131lana kadar Asya\u2019da talep taraf\u0131nda k\u0131sman\u0131n (daha az t\u00fcketim\/\u00fcretim) s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini ifade etti.\n\n\u0130ran\u2019la s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, petrol piyasalar\u0131nda belirgin bir risk primi (fiyata ek \u201crisk pay\u0131\u201d) olu\u015fturuyor. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekte teslimat i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, 2025\u2019teki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesi fiyatlara h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Piyasa, ge\u00e7ici bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcreli bir aksama fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\nG\u00fcncel uydu takibi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en tanker trafi\u011finin 2024\u2019teki g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamaya g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da piyasadan g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 17 milyon varilin eksilmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Arz\u0131n bu \u015fekilde uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131, K\u00f6rfez enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131nda olu\u015fabilecek herhangi bir hasar\u0131 \u00e7ok daha y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 hale getiriyor. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX; petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct) 65 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, en k\u00f6t\u00fc durum riskinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n<h3>Jeopolitik Kontrol ve Piyasa Fiyatlamas\u0131<\/h3>\nABD\u2019nin geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kritik enerji dar ge\u00e7idinin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc fiilen \u0130ran\u2019a b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu, ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir \u201cS\u00fcvey\u015f an\u0131\u201d (k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 ve n\u00fcfuz kayb\u0131n\u0131 simgeleyen tarihsel benzetme) say\u0131labilir ve k\u00fcresel lider (hegemon; uluslararas\u0131 sistemde belirleyici g\u00fc\u00e7) rol\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flatabilir. T\u00fcrev ara\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki jeopolitik nedenin devam etti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.\n\nEkonomik sonu\u00e7lar da g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr durumda: IMF (Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu) ge\u00e7en hafta, kal\u0131c\u0131 enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek 2026 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini 1 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol \u00f6demelerinde \u00c7in yuan\u0131 (CNY) talep etti\u011fi bir senaryo, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131na do\u011frudan meydan okur. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dikkate almas\u0131 gereken ek uzun vadeli risk ve kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (d\u00f6vizde dalgalanma) yarat\u0131r.\n\n\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n baz\u0131 Hint ve Japon LPG kargolar\u0131na izin vermesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yumu\u015fama olsa da, stratejik tabloyu de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor. Bu hacimler, durmu\u015f toplam arza k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kal\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca Asya\u2019da \u015eubat 2026 sanayi \u00fcretimi verileri (fabrikalar\u0131n \u00fcretim d\u00fczeyi), enerji k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan sonucu olarak daralmaya i\u015faret etmi\u015fti; bu etkinin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi petrol\u00fc rehin ald\u0131: Rabobank\u2019tan Picton, \u0130ran misillemesinin K\u00f6rfez altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 vurup kal\u0131c\u0131 arz kesintisi yaratabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Tanker trafi\u011fi %80 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Brent 115$, OVX 65.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30928","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30928"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30928\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30928"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30928"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30928"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}