{"id":30925,"date":"2026-03-23T11:07:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T11:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/societe-generalein-makro-ekibi-mart-ayi-oncu-pmi-verilerinin-petrol-sokunun-euro-bolgesinde-ekonomik-faaliyet-ve-fiyatlar-uzerindeki-etkisini-olcecegini-belirtti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T11:07:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T11:07:13","slug":"societe-generalein-makro-ekibi-mart-ayi-oncu-pmi-verilerinin-petrol-sokunun-euro-bolgesinde-ekonomik-faaliyet-ve-fiyatlar-uzerindeki-etkisini-olcecegini-belirtti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/societe-generalein-makro-ekibi-mart-ayi-oncu-pmi-verilerinin-petrol-sokunun-euro-bolgesinde-ekonomik-faaliyet-ve-fiyatlar-uzerindeki-etkisini-olcecegini-belirtti\/","title":{"rendered":"Societe Generale\u2019in makro ekibi, Mart ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verilerinin petrol \u015fokunun Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ekonomik faaliyet ve fiyatlar \u00fczerindeki etkisini \u00f6l\u00e7ece\u011fini belirtti"},"content":{"rendered":"Mart ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksleri), son petrol \u015fokunun Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ekonomik faaliyet ve fiyatlar\u0131 nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lacak. Odak, fiyatlar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flamadan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131. Bu durum, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 daha erken g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir.\n\nBrent petrol ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 110 dolarda kapatt\u0131. Bu seviye, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgalinin ard\u0131ndan Mart 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen 128 dolarl\u0131k zirvenin alt\u0131nda. Rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (ham petrolden \u00fcretilen yak\u0131tlar) spot fiyatlar farkl\u0131 seyrediyor; jet yak\u0131t\u0131 ve dizel \u015fu anda 2022 zirvelerinin \u00fczerinde, jet yak\u0131t\u0131nda fark belirgin.\n\n<h3>2022 Enflasyon \u015eoku ile Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma<\/h3>\nMart 2022\u2019de faaliyet endeksi (PMI i\u00e7inde \u00fcretim\/sipari\u015f gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi g\u00f6steren k\u0131s\u0131m) neredeyse yerinde saym\u0131\u015f, fiyat endeksi ise zaten \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Mevcut tablo, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki dengeyi g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in o d\u00f6nemle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nBu kez faaliyet endeksinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir gerileme bekleniyor. Fiyat \u015fokunun, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye etkisine k\u0131yasla ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu anlamak i\u00e7in PMI\u2019lar\u0131n fiyat bile\u015fenleri (PMI i\u00e7indeki girdi maliyetleri ve sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131 gibi alt kalemler) yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.\n\n<h3>\u0130\u015flem Etkileri ve Pozisyon Alma<\/h3>\nBu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ECB\u2019nin daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 e\u011filimli) bir duru\u015funa g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu, EURIBOR ya da \u20acSTR vadeli i\u015flemleriyle (k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerini fiyatlayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler) k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckselece\u011fine oynamay\u0131 i\u00e7erebilir. Piyasa, temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. A\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesi belirsizlik, opsiyon stratejilerini de cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nVSTOXX oynakl\u0131k endeksi (Euro Stoxx 50 i\u00e7in piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentisi) 23\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak PMI verisi \u00f6ncesi tedirginli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Euro Stoxx 50\u2019de straddle veya strangle (y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketine oynayan opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131) almak, y\u00f6n\u00fc ne olursa olsun sert bir harekette kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flaman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir. Fiyat endeksi beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirse Euro\u2019nun g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi olas\u0131.\n\nBu nedenle EUR\/USD paritesinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; kur y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) da izlenebilir. Bu, ECB\u2019den \u201c\u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz\u201d gelmesi halinde ortak para birimindeki y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015fmas\u0131) ihtimali Avrupa hisseleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.\n\nBu ortam, hisse senetlerinde temkinli duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor; b\u00fcy\u00fck Avrupa endekslerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) almak olas\u0131 olumsuz piyasa tepkisine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) sa\u011flayabilir. \u00d6zellikle ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ve havayolu hisseleri, rekor d\u00fczeye \u00e7\u0131kan yak\u0131t maliyetlerine do\u011frudan a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrol \u015foku Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde PMI\u2019larla teste giriyor: Fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 a\u015farsa ECB daha erken \u015fahinle\u015febilir. Piyasada \u20acSTR\/EURIBOR, VSTOXX y\u00fckseli\u015fi, opsiyonlu EUR\/USD ve endeks hedgeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30925","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30925"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30925\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30925"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30925"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30925"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}