{"id":30923,"date":"2026-03-23T11:05:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T11:05:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbanktan-thu-lan-nguyen-tarihi-bir-enerji-guvenligi-tehdidine-ragmen-ima-edilen-eur-usd-volatilitesinin-neden-dusuk-kaldigini-sorguluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T11:05:50","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T11:05:50","slug":"commerzbanktan-thu-lan-nguyen-tarihi-bir-enerji-guvenligi-tehdidine-ragmen-ima-edilen-eur-usd-volatilitesinin-neden-dusuk-kaldigini-sorguluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbanktan-thu-lan-nguyen-tarihi-bir-enerji-guvenligi-tehdidine-ragmen-ima-edilen-eur-usd-volatilitesinin-neden-dusuk-kaldigini-sorguluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019tan Thu Lan Nguyen, tarihi bir enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi tehdidine ra\u011fmen ima edilen EUR\/USD volatilitesinin neden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorguluyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019tan Thu Lan Nguyen, tarih boyunca enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdit oldu\u011funa dair iddialara ra\u011fmen, EUR\/USD (Euro\/dolar) i\u00e7in \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu bildiriyor. \u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, 2020 ve 2022 krizlerinin ba\u015f\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki Kurtulu\u015f G\u00fcn\u00fc\u2019nden k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonras\u0131na g\u00f6re de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fini belirtiyor.\n\nMakalede beklenen d\u00f6viz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131, para politikas\u0131 beklentilerine (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz kararlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler) ba\u011flan\u0131yor. Piyasalar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131 bekledi\u011finde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n genellikle artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu durum \u201ccarry fark\u0131n\u0131\u201d (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki faiz getirisi fark\u0131) de\u011fi\u015ftirir.\n\n<h3>\u0130ma Edilen Oynakl\u0131k Neden D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Kald\u0131<\/h3>\nYaz\u0131da, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda ABD ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde faiz beklentilerinin de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi aktar\u0131l\u0131yor. \u201cYeniden fiyatlama\u201dn\u0131n (piyasalar\u0131n faiz beklentilerini h\u0131zl\u0131ca g\u00fcncellemesi) her iki b\u00f6lgede de benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekte oldu\u011fu, 50 baz puan\u0131n (0,50 y\u00fczde puan) biraz \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bu nedenle, faiz fark\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fim \u015fu a\u015famada fiyatlanm\u0131yor.\n\nAyr\u0131ca ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) ge\u00e7mi\u015f enflasyon d\u00f6nemlerine k\u0131yasla daha erken ad\u0131m atabilece\u011fi; ancak piyasan\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in gereken e\u015fi\u011fi (art\u0131r\u0131m \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131) fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck varsay\u0131yor olabilece\u011fi s\u00f6yleniyor. Bu da EUR\/USD\u2019de d\u00fczeltme (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zla yeniden dengelenmesi) ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketler i\u00e7in alan yaratabilir.\n\n2025\u2019teki de\u011ferlendirmeye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde EUR\/USD oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 derecede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Piyasa, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) ve ECB\u2019nin faizleri benzer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ayarlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fi i\u00e7in paritenin (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki kur) sakin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na girilirken bu ortak beklentinin \u00f6nemli bir hata oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\n\n<h3>Bug\u00fcn \u0130\u015flem Yapanlar \u0130\u00e7in Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\nECB\u2019nin piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki vermeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun belirgin bir d\u00fczeltmeye yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Fed ad\u0131mlar\u0131na devam ederken ECB geride kal\u0131nca, 2025 sonbahar\u0131 boyunca faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon alanlar\u0131n, kurda daha sert dalgalanmalarla (daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flarla) k\u00e2rl\u0131 f\u0131rsatlar yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nBug\u00fcn, 23 Mart 2026 itibar\u0131yla, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda benzer bir rehavetin olu\u015fabilece\u011fi s\u00f6yleniyor. Son veriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek HICP enflasyonunun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) \u015fubatta 3,5 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek geldi\u011fini ve ECB hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI (imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde faaliyet d\u00fczeyini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 48,9\u2019a gerileyerek daralmaya (50\u2019nin alt\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye i\u015faret eder) i\u015faret ediyor ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesine dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\nBu ayr\u0131\u015fma, ECB\u2019nin daha uzun s\u00fcre \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) kalmak zorunda kalabilece\u011fini; Fed\u2019in ise beklenenden erken \u201cgev\u015femeyi\u201d (faiz indirimini) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek zorunda kalabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da euroyu destekleyecek \u015fekilde faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimalini netle\u015ftiriyor. Ancak piyasan\u0131n bu olas\u0131 politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere gitmesini) tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.\n\n\u201cT\u00fcrev\u201d (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa, \u00f6rne\u011fin d\u00f6viz kuruna ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam\u0131n, mevcut ima edilen oynakl\u0131k seviyelerinin muhtemelen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fi s\u00f6yleniyor. EUR\/USD\u2019de sert bir yeniden fiyatlama riski art\u0131yor; 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen ko\u015fullara benzer bir tablo olu\u015fabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na pozisyon alman\u0131n daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor.\n\nPratik bir strateji olarak, 3 ayl\u0131k \u201cat-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut kura yak\u0131n) EUR\/USD \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m opsiyonu hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma; kur hangi y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc giderse gitsin kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen yap\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6neriliyor. Bu strateji, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 riskinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla, kurun iki y\u00f6nden birinde b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket etmesinden faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar. Bu, piyasan\u0131n mevcut sakinli\u011finin s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan bir beklentidir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasada rehavet mi var? Commerzbank\u2019a g\u00f6re EUR\/USD ima edilen oynakl\u0131k krizlere k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; faiz fark\u0131 hen\u00fcz fiyatlanm\u0131yor. Enflasyon-PMI ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ECB\u2019yi \u015fahin, Fed\u2019i gev\u015femeye itebilir; straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30923"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30923\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}