{"id":30907,"date":"2026-03-23T06:04:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T06:04:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/orta-dogudaki-arz-endiseleri-erken-saatlerdeki-zirvelerden-gerilemeye-ragmen-wtiyi-varil-basina-9810-dolar-civarinda-yuksek-tutuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T06:04:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T06:04:37","slug":"orta-dogudaki-arz-endiseleri-erken-saatlerdeki-zirvelerden-gerilemeye-ragmen-wtiyi-varil-basina-9810-dolar-civarinda-yuksek-tutuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/orta-dogudaki-arz-endiseleri-erken-saatlerdeki-zirvelerden-gerilemeye-ragmen-wtiyi-varil-basina-9810-dolar-civarinda-yuksek-tutuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki arz endi\u015feleri, erken saatlerdeki zirvelerden gerilemeye ra\u011fmen WTI\u2019yi varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98,10 dolar civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek tutuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol) fiyat\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7i zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekildi ancak Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98,10 dolar civar\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bunun nedeni, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki arz (piyasaya petrol tedariki) risklerinin s\u00fcrmesi. Haberlere g\u00f6re ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019a H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131na petrol \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 i\u00e7in 48 saat s\u00fcre verdi; aksi halde enerji tesislerine y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.\n\nDi\u011fer haberlere g\u00f6re Washington, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol ihracat merkezi olan Hark Adas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Kharg Island) kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in kara harek\u00e2t\u0131n\u0131 (karadan askeri operasyon) de\u011ferlendiriyor. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu, ABD\u2019nin ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde bo\u011faz\u0131 kapataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; Tahran ise b\u00f6lgede ABD ve \u0130srail varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 (askeri unsurlar ve tesisler) hedef alabilece\u011fini belirtti.\n\nReuters, Suudi Aramco\u2019nun Nisan\u2019da Asya\u2019daki al\u0131c\u0131lara ham petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 ikinci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Aksamalar\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7en ak\u0131\u015flarla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Arz, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki Yanbu liman\u0131ndan gelen Arab Light (Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n \u201chafif\u201d kalite ham petrol\u00fc) ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Bu durum, Asya\u2019daki rafinerilerin girdi ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc (feedstock: rafinerinin i\u015fledi\u011fi ham madde) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131 ve \u00fcretimi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.\n\nUluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Birol, olas\u0131 acil durum stok sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (devletlerin piyasaya acil petrol s\u00fcrmesi) i\u00e7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Birol, gerilimi azaltman\u0131n ana yolunun H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131 ve aksamalar\u0131n 1970\u2019lerdeki petrol \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131ndan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck olabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.\n\nWTI 98 dolar civar\u0131nda ve ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a verdi\u011fi 48 saatlik s\u00fcre devam ederken, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131kta (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, May\u0131s ve Haziran vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda 100 dolar\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan opsiyon) 105 veya 110 dolar gibi seviyelerden de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu yap\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kapan\u0131rsa fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na maruz kalmay\u0131 sa\u011flar; Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda fiyatlar\u0131n 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na benzer bir hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n\nBelirsizlik \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm h\u00e2linde fiyatlar sert d\u00fc\u015febilir. Her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket beklenir, y\u00f6n belirsizdir) uygulanabilir. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX: ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6re beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 izleyen g\u00f6sterge) muhtemelen y\u00fckseldi. 2022\u2019deki arz \u015fokunda 40\u2019l\u0131 seviyelerden 90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu da oynakl\u0131k \u00fczerinden pozisyon alman\u0131n potansiyelini g\u00f6sterir.\n\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksamalar, uluslararas\u0131 Brent referans\u0131n\u0131 WTI\u2019ya g\u00f6re daha do\u011frudan etkiler. Bu nedenle Brent-WTI fark\u0131n\u0131n (spread: iki fiyat aras\u0131ndaki fark) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi beklenebilir. \u00c7ift i\u015flem (pair trade: iki ilgili enstr\u00fcmanda z\u0131t y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) olarak Brent vadeli kontrat\u0131nda uzun, WTI vadeli kontrat\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almak ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanabilir. Asya rafinerilerinin \u015fimdiden arz kesintisi g\u00f6rmesi, k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00fcr\u00fcn \u00fcretimini bask\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor.\n\nSuudi Aramco Asya\u2019ya sevkiyat\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in benzin ve motorin gibi rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (ham petrolden \u00fcretilen \u00fcr\u00fcnler) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ham petrolden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 olabilir. RBOB benzini (ABD benzin vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan standart kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m) gibi rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131p WTI ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak, \u201cuzun crack spread\u201d (rafineri marj\u0131 i\u015flemi: \u00fcr\u00fcnler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, ham petrol zay\u0131f varsay\u0131m\u0131) olarak bilinen pozisyondur. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki deniz tatbikatlar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda Asya crack spread\u2019lerinin birka\u00e7 haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, bu alandaki potansiyeli g\u00f6steriyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrolde tansiyon zirvede: WTI 98 dolarda tutunuyor. Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a 48 saatlik \u00fcltimatomu, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kapanma riski ve Aramco\u2019nun Asya sevkiyat kesintileri arz \u015fokunu, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Brent-WTI fark\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30907","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30907","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30907"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30907\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30907"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30907"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30907"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}