{"id":30905,"date":"2026-03-23T06:03:26","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T06:03:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-yenin-zayiflamasiyla-ikinci-gun-de-yukselisini-surdurerek-15950-civarina-cikti-ancak-mudahale-endiseleri-kazanclari-sinirlayabilir\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T06:03:26","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T06:03:26","slug":"usd-jpy-yenin-zayiflamasiyla-ikinci-gun-de-yukselisini-surdurerek-15950-civarina-cikti-ancak-mudahale-endiseleri-kazanclari-sinirlayabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-yenin-zayiflamasiyla-ikinci-gun-de-yukselisini-surdurerek-15950-civarina-cikti-ancak-mudahale-endiseleri-kazanclari-sinirlayabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, Yen\u2019in zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla ikinci g\u00fcn de y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 159,50 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ancak m\u00fcdahale endi\u015feleri kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY ikinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseldi ve pazartesi Asya seans\u0131nda 159,00 seviyelerinin ortas\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Kur, ge\u00e7en haftaki Temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek seviyelere yak\u0131n kald\u0131. D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda resmi m\u00fcdahale (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in devletin piyasaya al\u0131m-sat\u0131mla girmesi) ihtimalinin, ek y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.  \n\nJaponya Maliye Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 (Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkiler) Atsushi Mimura, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin d\u00f6viz kurundaki oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcm cephelerde ad\u0131m atmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Japon yeni \u00fczerindeki yeni sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fu da s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.  \n\n<h3>Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 Politika Sinyalleri<\/h3>  \n\nBoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda, ekonomi ve fiyatlar bankan\u0131n tahminleriyle uyumlu giderse politika faizini art\u0131rmaya devam edeceklerini s\u00f6yledi. \u00c7ekirdek\/enflasyon e\u011filiminin (ge\u00e7ici etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon) tahmin d\u00f6neminin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda hedefle uyumlu olmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini, reel faizlerin (faiz oran\u0131ndan enflasyonun \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131yla bulunan, enflasyona g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f faiz) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.  \n\nABD\u2019de Fed, bu y\u0131l bir faiz indirimi ve 2027\u2019de bir faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin Japonya ekonomisini zorlayabilece\u011fi endi\u015feleri, yenin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirildi.  \n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim, dolar\u0131n rezerv para (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ve k\u00fcresel ticaretin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla tuttu\u011fu\/ kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 para birimi) rol\u00fcn\u00fc destekledi. Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 i\u00e7in 48 saat s\u00fcre verdi\u011fini ve uyulmamas\u0131 halinde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hedef al\u0131nabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.  \n\nUSD\/JPY paritesi (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki kur), Mart 2026 sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131rken 159,60 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyor. Ana etken, Fed ile BoJ aras\u0131ndaki belirgin faiz fark\u0131; bu fark \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k 450 baz puan (1 baz puan = y\u00fczde 0,01). Bu makas, Japon yeni tutmaya k\u0131yasla ABD dolar\u0131 tutmay\u0131 daha kazan\u00e7l\u0131 hale getiriyor.  \n\n<h3>\u0130\u015flem ve Korunma (Hedging) De\u011ferlendirmeleri<\/h3>  \n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik riskler, \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilim, dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) \u00f6zelli\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (gelecekte belirli fiyatla al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu durum enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Japonya ekonomisi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor ve yeni zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bu tablo, paritede temkinli de olsa yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc destekliyor.  \n\nBununla birlikte parite 160,00 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken Japon yetkililerden m\u00fcdahale riski art\u0131yor. Ekim 2025\u2019te Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ad\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131, parite k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine ayn\u0131 e\u015fi\u011fe dokundu\u011funda \u00e7ok sert ve birka\u00e7 yenlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu haftaki resmi uyar\u0131lar, sabr\u0131n yeniden azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.  \n\nBoJ\u2019nin daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu da (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131m) tabloyu karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; Ueda daha fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u015eubat 2026 ulusal \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019si (g\u0131da\/enerji gibi oynak kalemlerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) %2,7 geldi. Bu, BoJ\u2019nin %2 hedefinin \u00fczerindeki 23. ay oldu ve bankaya ad\u0131m atmak i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e veriyor. Ancak BoJ\u2019nin kademeli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, faizleri \u00e7ok yava\u015f indiren Fed kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirmeye yetmedi.  \n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu sat\u0131n almay\u0131 (opsiyon: belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme; \u201cprim\u201d: bu hak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) daha uygun bir strateji olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, 160,00 seviyesine ve \u00fczerine olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Opsiyon primiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 risk, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesinde spot pozisyonun (anl\u0131k piyasada do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) ya\u015fayabilece\u011fi sert kay\u0131plara kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.  \n\nHalihaz\u0131rda USD\/JPY uzun pozisyonu olanlar i\u00e7in, \u201czarar durdurucu\u201d olarak paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131na g\u00f6re daha uzakta olan) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan gelebilecek ani bir m\u00fcdahaleye kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir; k\u00e2r\u0131 korurken, ana uzun pozisyonun kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dolar\/yen 159,60\u2019a t\u0131rman\u0131rken 160 e\u015fi\u011fi g\u00fcndemde: Fed-BoJ faiz makas\u0131 450 bp y\u00fckseli\u015fi besliyor; Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Ancak Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30905","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30905","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30905"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30905\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30905"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30905"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30905"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}