{"id":30868,"date":"2026-03-21T01:01:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-21T01:01:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/s-secim-yili-kaliplari-mart-dip-ve-mart-tepesine-isaret-ediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-21T01:01:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-21T01:01:54","slug":"s-secim-yili-kaliplari-mart-dip-ve-mart-tepesine-isaret-ediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/s-secim-yili-kaliplari-mart-dip-ve-mart-tepesine-isaret-ediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500\u2019\u00fcn yak\u0131nda trendin tersine toparlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor; se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131 kal\u0131plar\u0131 mart dip ve mart tepesine i\u015faret ediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Ge\u00e7en haftaki g\u00fcncelleme, ara se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131na \u00f6zg\u00fc mevsimsel (y\u0131l\u0131n belirli d\u00f6nemlerinde s\u0131k tekrarlanan) hareketlere dayanarak S&#038;P 500\u2019\u00fcn y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana (YTD: y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne) dip seviyesini yakla\u015f\u0131k 13 Mart, zirvesini ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 Mart olarak i\u015faret etmi\u015fti; tarihler \u00b13 i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc esnekli\u011fiyle de\u011ferlendirildi. Endeks 13 Mart\u2019ta 6632 ile dip yapt\u0131, 17 Mart\u2019ta 6754 ile zirve g\u00f6rd\u00fc.\n\n20 Mart\u2019ta endeks 6500 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve yeni dipler yap\u0131yordu. 17 Mart zirvesi \u00b13 g\u00fcnl\u00fck aral\u0131\u011fa girse de, 20 Mart\u2019taki seviye 13 Mart dip seviyesinin de alt\u0131ndayd\u0131.\n\n<h3>Mevsimsellik ile Fiyat\u0131n \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131<\/h3>\nMevsimsellik modeli, bildirilen dip ve zirveleri 13 denemenin 9\u2019unda yakalad\u0131; alternatif say\u0131mda 13\u2019te 10. G\u00fcncelleme ayr\u0131ca 31 Mart civar\u0131nda bir dip beklentisini not ediyor; zirvenin 17 Mart\u2019ta gelmi\u015f olmas\u0131, bu dibin daha erken olu\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nAt\u0131f yap\u0131lan teknik seviyeler aras\u0131nda 0,236 geri \u00e7ekilme (Fibonacci geri \u00e7ekilmesi: \u00f6nceki y\u00fckseli\u015fin belirli oranlarda geri verilmesi) seviyesi olan 6492 ve 1,618x uzatma (Fibonacci uzatma: hareketin birden fazla katsay\u0131yla \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen hedefi) seviyesi olan 6493 yer al\u0131yor. Bu seviyeler, 25 \u015eubat zirvesinden gelen \u201cending diagonal\u201d (sonlanma kama\/son dalga yap\u0131s\u0131: trendin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kaybedip sona yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima eden formasyon) i\u00e7in hedef olarak kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen rota \u015f\u00f6yle: 6490 \u00b1 10 civar\u0131nda tamamlanma, ard\u0131ndan \u201ccountertrend B-wave\u201d (ana trendin tersine tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi) ile 18 Nisan\u2019da 6900 \u00b1 100, sonras\u0131nda \u201cW-c\u201d (dalgasal say\u0131mda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn bir aya\u011f\u0131) ile en az 0,382 geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesine kadar yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f.\n\n2025\u2019te bu d\u00f6neme ait analizimize bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, ara se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131 mevsimselli\u011fi neredeyse kusursuz i\u015flemi\u015fti. Piyasa 13 Mart civar\u0131nda dip yapm\u0131\u015f, 17 Mart civar\u0131nda zirveye ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu da o d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in i\u015fe yarayan bir yol haritas\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\n\nBug\u00fcn ise 2026\u2019n\u0131n ayn\u0131 mevsimsel kal\u0131b\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmek gerekiyor; bu nedenle bire bir k\u0131yas sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011fil. Buna ra\u011fmen, piyasan\u0131n \u015eubat sonundaki yakla\u015f\u0131k 7250 zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle benzer bir fiyat yap\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. VIX\u2019in (oynakl\u0131k endeksi: piyasadaki korku\/oynakl\u0131k beklentisini g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) 13\u2019ten 18\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l kullan\u0131lan ayn\u0131 teknik ara\u00e7larla, bu ilk a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir dip izleniyor. Ekim 2025 dibinden ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015fin 0,236 Fibonacci geri \u00e7ekilmesi 7020 civar\u0131nda; bu b\u00f6lge ilk destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) olabilir. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar, bu seviyede put opsiyonu (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma\/yararlanma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) i\u015flem hacminde art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir taban i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6rebilir.\n\n<h3>K\u0131sa Vadeli Destek ve Tepki<\/h3>\nPiyasa 7020 civar\u0131nda destek bulursa, 2025\u2019te konu\u015fulan B-dalgas\u0131na benzer bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi beklenebilir. Bu tepki, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in korunma (hedge: riski azaltma) ya da k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon denemesi f\u0131rsat\u0131 olabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin 7150 b\u00f6lgesinin yeniden testini hedefleyen call opsiyonlar\u0131 (y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) kullan\u0131labilir. Ancak bu hareketin kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil, bir sonraki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ad\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ncesi ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\n\u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) ge\u00e7en ay yeniden artarak %3,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, bu geri \u00e7ekilmenin daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fczeltmenin (daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\/soluklanma) par\u00e7as\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. B-dalgas\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015finin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131, daha belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterebilir; bu senaryoda ilk hedeflerden biri ilkbahar\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde 6800 civar\u0131ndaki 0,382 geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesi olabilir. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalardaki y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerine temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini ve daha ileri vadeli (daha ge\u00e7 son kullan\u0131ml\u0131) koruyucu putlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mevsimsellik 13 Mart dip-20 Mart zirve beklerken S&#038;P 500 17 Mart\u2019ta tepe yap\u0131p 6500 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. 7020 kritik destek; tepkiyle 7150 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn, ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zsa 6800 hedef. VIX y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30868"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30868\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}