{"id":30867,"date":"2026-03-21T01:01:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-21T01:01:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/arjantinin-dorduncu-ceyrek-yillik-gsyh-buyumesi-21e-ulasti-22lik-beklentinin-hafif-altinda-kaldi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-21T01:01:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-21T01:01:15","slug":"arjantinin-dorduncu-ceyrek-yillik-gsyh-buyumesi-21e-ulasti-22lik-beklentinin-hafif-altinda-kaldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/arjantinin-dorduncu-ceyrek-yillik-gsyh-buyumesi-21e-ulasti-22lik-beklentinin-hafif-altinda-kaldi\/","title":{"rendered":"Arjantin\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek y\u0131ll\u0131k GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %2,1\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131, %2,2\u2019lik beklentinin hafif alt\u0131nda kald\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"Arjantin\u2019in y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte %2,1 oldu. Bu oran, %2,2\u2019lik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.\n\nSonu\u00e7, beklentiyi 0,1 puan ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. Bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.\n\n<h3>B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u0130vmesi ve Makro Engeller<\/h3>\nGeriye d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Arjantin\u2019in 2025 d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisindeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sapma, b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair erken bir i\u015faret oldu. Buna ek olarak, son enflasyon verilerinin y\u00fcksek seyretmesi, ekonomik toparlanman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde ciddi engeller oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha temkinli, risk azalt\u0131c\u0131 bir duru\u015fun \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.\n\nBu ortamda, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 gerileyen iShares MSCI Argentina ETF (AGt) \u00fczerinde opsiyon (belirli bir tarihe kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullan\u0131m\u0131nda f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fi beklentisiyle ta\u015f\u0131nan pozisyon) korumak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 veya ikinci \u00e7eyrek boyunca ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayabilmeyi de\u011ferlendirebilir. Piyasada putlara, al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek talep olmas\u0131, olumsuz beklentinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBu belirsizlik ayn\u0131 zamanda piyasada dalgal\u0131 seyre yol a\u00e7\u0131yor; bu durum t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u00e7in kritik bir unsur. AGt\u2019de 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da ileride daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketleri beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmayan ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket bekleyenler i\u00e7in uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla ayn\u0131 anda call ve put al\u0131m\u0131) gibi stratejiler uygun olabilir.\n\n<h3>Kur Riski ve Korunma<\/h3>\nArjantin Pesosu (ARS) \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 da \u00f6nemli bir risk unsuru. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon ge\u00e7mi\u015f zirvelere g\u00f6re gerilese de, son raporlara g\u00f6re h\u00e2l\u00e2 %45 civar\u0131nda. Bu, peso cinsinden varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olanlar i\u00e7in kur riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 gerekli k\u0131l\u0131yor. ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda pesonun daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in NDF (non-deliverable forward: fiziki teslimat\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, vade sonunda fark\u0131n nakit \u00f6dendi\u011fi vadeli kur s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) i\u015flemlerini takip ediyoruz.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arjantin\u2019de 4\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %2,1\u2019le beklentiyi 0,1 puan \u0131skalad\u0131; ivme zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Enflasyon\/peso riski artarken AGt\u2019de oynakl\u0131k %40+; putlar, straddle ve NDF\u2019lerle korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30867","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30867"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30867\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}