{"id":30864,"date":"2026-03-21T00:05:18","date_gmt":"2026-03-21T00:05:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/iki-gun-suren-sert-dususlerin-ardindan-altin-gerilemesini-surdurdu-4-500-dolara-yaklasirken-ust-uste-ucuncu-haftalik-kayba-ilerliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-21T00:05:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-21T00:05:18","slug":"iki-gun-suren-sert-dususlerin-ardindan-altin-gerilemesini-surdurdu-4-500-dolara-yaklasirken-ust-uste-ucuncu-haftalik-kayba-ilerliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/iki-gun-suren-sert-dususlerin-ardindan-altin-gerilemesini-surdurdu-4-500-dolara-yaklasirken-ust-uste-ucuncu-haftalik-kayba-ilerliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ki g\u00fcn s\u00fcren sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n gerilemesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; 4.500 dolara yakla\u015f\u0131rken \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k kayba ilerliyor."},"content":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc de gerileyerek \u015eubat ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 4.500 dolar civar\u0131na indi. XAU\/USD (alt\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki fiyat\u0131) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.735 dolar seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra 4.580 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k kayba y\u00f6neldi. \n\nBu hareket, merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cfaizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131\u201d beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131), BoJ (Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131), SNB (\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131), BoE (\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131), BoC (Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131) ve ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) faizleri sabit tuttu. RBA (Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131) ise Orta Do\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n petrol ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rma riski nedeniyle enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirerek faiz art\u0131rd\u0131. \n\n

Faizlerin Uzun S\u00fcre Y\u00fcksek Kalmas\u0131 Bask\u0131 Yarat\u0131yor<\/h3> \nAlt\u0131n, ABD-\u0130srail ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana %10\u2019dan fazla geriledi. Bunun yan\u0131nda piyasalar faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 (gelecekte faizlerin nas\u0131l seyredece\u011fine ili\u015fkin beklentileri) yeniden fiyatlad\u0131. Piyasa \u015fu anda Fed\u2019in 2026 boyunca faizi indirmeden koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. ECB i\u00e7in temmuzda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir art\u0131\u015f daha beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. BoE i\u00e7in ise bu y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi bulunuyor. \n\nG\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri (devlet tahvillerinin faiz oran\u0131) de alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyon \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 etki yaratabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Enflasyonun %2\u2019ye yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fini, ancak tarifelerin (ithalat vergileri) bask\u0131y\u0131 yukar\u0131da tuttu\u011funu belirtti. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 zay\u0131f kal\u0131rsa bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimlerini destekleyebilece\u011fini ifade etti. \n\nTeknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde (fiyat grafi\u011fine dayal\u0131 analiz) alt\u0131n, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.979 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131na indikten sonra 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.605 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: 0-100 aras\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen momentum g\u00f6stergesi; 30\u2019a yak\u0131n de\u011ferler \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret eder) 33 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. ADX (Ortalama Y\u00f6n Endeksi: trendin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er; 20\u2019ye yakla\u015fmas\u0131 trendin g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterir) 20\u2019ye do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Destek seviyeleri 4.502 dolar, 4.402 dolar ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (uzun vadeli e\u011filimi g\u00f6steren ortalama) olan 4.091 dolar olarak izlenirken; diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.979 dolar, 5.000 dolar ve 5.200 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \n\n2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda alt\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve fiyatlar\u0131n 4.500 dolar band\u0131na itilmesi haf\u0131zalarda. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ortakla\u015fa \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmay\u0131 savunan) tutum almas\u0131ndan kaynaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u201cFaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d ortam\u0131 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine de ta\u015f\u0131narak alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutmaya devam etti. \n\n

Piyasada De\u011fi\u015fen Sinyaller<\/h3> \nBug\u00fcn, 20 Mart 2026 itibar\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zorlu olsa da izlenmesi gereken baz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Fed faizi sabit tutarken, \u015fubat verilerinde \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,4 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek; ancak yava\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a (Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin vadeli piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131n\u0131 izleyen ara\u00e7) g\u00f6re vadeli piyasalarda y\u0131l sonuna kadar tek bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %25\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu, birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6nceki \u201cindirim yok\u201d beklentisine g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim. \n\nT\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu, alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) dar kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Uzun vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131n maliyeti g\u00f6rece makul olabilir. Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli, 4.800 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015fleyece\u011fi fiyat) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131, Fed\u2019in y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yapmas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck riskli bir pozisyonlanma yolu olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \n\nG\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l oldu\u011fu gibi alt\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan ana unsur olmaya devam ediyor. Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 105 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrederken, ABD tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 sermayeyi ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na \u00e7ekiyor. Bu tablo, fiziki alt\u0131n pozisyonu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli \u201ccovered call\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (eldeki varl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak prim geliri elde etme) gibi stratejilerin net bir trend olu\u015fana kadar gelir yaratabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131n, resmi al\u0131m taraf\u0131n\u0131n (merkez bankalar\u0131 ve kamu kurumlar\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc deste\u011fi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verilerine g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2025\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde 290 ton alt\u0131n ald\u0131. Bu, \u201cdolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131la\u015fma\u201d (rezervlerde dolar\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131 azaltma) ve rezerv \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 talebin, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taban\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ve daha sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engelledi\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. \n\nBu nedenle, 2025\u2019te \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan kilit teknik seviyeler bug\u00fcn de \u00f6nemini koruyor. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama, \u015fimdi 4.150 dolar civar\u0131nda ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek b\u00f6lgesi olarak izleniyor. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda nakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (cash-secured put: olas\u0131 al\u0131m i\u00e7in nakit ay\u0131rarak sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak) veya put spread (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonuyla riskin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemlerle prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelir) toplamak, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: XAU\/USD 4.500 dolara inerek \u015eubat\u2019tan beri dipte. Merkez bankalar\u0131 \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d mesaj\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\/tahvil getirileri bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Kritik destek 4.402-4.091.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30864","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30864","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30864"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30864\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30864"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30864"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30864"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}