{"id":30855,"date":"2026-03-20T22:01:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T22:01:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/scotiabank-stratejistleri-g10un-abd-iran-gerilimindeki-onceki-hamleleri-yansitmasiyla-dolar-genis-capta-gucleniyor-kirilgan-risk-istahi-suruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T22:01:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T22:01:31","slug":"scotiabank-stratejistleri-g10un-abd-iran-gerilimindeki-onceki-hamleleri-yansitmasiyla-dolar-genis-capta-gucleniyor-kirilgan-risk-istahi-suruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/scotiabank-stratejistleri-g10un-abd-iran-gerilimindeki-onceki-hamleleri-yansitmasiyla-dolar-genis-capta-gucleniyor-kirilgan-risk-istahi-suruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Scotiabank stratejistleri: G10\u2019un ABD-\u0130ran gerilimindeki \u00f6nceki hamleleri yans\u0131tmas\u0131yla Dolar geni\u015f \u00e7apta g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; k\u0131r\u0131lgan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Scotiabank\u2019\u0131n k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz (FX) strateji ekibi, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda (USD) geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme oldu\u011funu bildiriyor. G10 para birimlerindeki (dolar, euro, sterlin gibi geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke para birimleri) hareketlerin, ABD\/\u0130ran geriliminin ilk d\u00f6nemlerindeki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor. Piyasalar, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzama ihtimalini, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n izleyece\u011fi faiz patikas\u0131ndaki (faizlerin zaman i\u00e7inde izleyece\u011fi y\u00f6n) de\u011fi\u015fimi ve tahvil getirilerindeki (faiz oran\u0131 getirisi) sert yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma iste\u011fi) k\u0131r\u0131lgan.\n\nRapora g\u00f6re \u0130ran\u2019daki b\u00fcy\u00fck do\u011falgaz sahalar\u0131na ve Katar\u2019daki kilit LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz) ihracat tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzayaca\u011f\u0131 ve onar\u0131m s\u00fcrecinin uzun s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini art\u0131rd\u0131. Son g\u00fcnlerde tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseldi; \u00f6zellikle \u0130ngiltere\u2019de hareketler belirgin. Bu tablo; Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) temkinli mesajlar\u0131, ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) \u015fahin (faiz indirimi yerine s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fa yak\u0131n) duru\u015fu ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n agresif U d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (politika y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc sert de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi) sonras\u0131nda olu\u015ftu.\n\n<h3>Dolar G\u00fcc\u00fc ve Politika De\u011fi\u015fimi<\/h3>\nFederal Reserve taraf\u0131nda faiz indirim beklentileri zay\u0131flad\u0131. Fed funds vadeli i\u015flemleri (piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki politika faizini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), Eyl\u00fcl 2027\u2019ye kadar faizlerde her iki y\u00f6ne de \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim ihtimali fiyatl\u0131yor. Emtia taraf\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131: WTI (ABD ham petrol\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar ortalar\u0131nda dengelenirken, Brent (k\u00fcresel g\u00f6sterge petrol) artan gerilimle 100 dolara do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi.\n\nABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hem \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 hem de merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131ndaki net y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi nedeniyle genel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Dolar Endeksi (DXY \u2013 dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) 107,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviyenin kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi en son 2025 sonundaki piyasa belirsizli\u011fi d\u00f6nemindeydi. Bu ortam, dolar\u0131n di\u011fer G10 para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015finin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine oynayan dolar al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call \u2013 belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131 (futures \u2013 ileri tarihte al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc) gibi stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.\n\nRisk i\u015ftah\u0131 bu kadar k\u0131r\u0131lganken, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite \u2013 fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) kendisi bir f\u0131rsat alan\u0131 olabilir. VIX endeksi (piyasa korkusu g\u00f6stergesi; beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) bu hafta 22\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011findeki 15 ortalamas\u0131na g\u00f6re keskin bir art\u0131\u015f. Fed funds vadeli i\u015flemleri faiz de\u011fi\u015fimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde straddle (ayn\u0131 anda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma; fiyat hangi y\u00f6ne sert giderse gitsin kazan\u00e7 hedefler) gibi opsiyon stratejileriyle iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert hareketlerden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyebilir.\n\nPetrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in \u201cspread\u201d i\u015flemi (iki \u00fcr\u00fcn aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131na oynama) f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Brent\u2019in WTI\u2019a g\u00f6re primi varil ba\u015f\u0131na 5 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, son sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n k\u00fcresel arz \u00fczerindeki do\u011frudan jeopolitik riski yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Gerilim y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa bu fark\u0131n daha da a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fi beklentisiyle, Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun (al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyon al\u0131p WTI kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa (sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyonla bu farktan yararlanma stratejisi de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\n<h3>Hisse Senedi Riski ve Korunma<\/h3>\nG\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fckselen tahvil getirileri ortam\u0131, tarihsel olarak hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in zorlay\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r; 2025\u2019teki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen geri \u00e7ekilmeyi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle S&#038;P 500 gibi ana endekslerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put \u2013 belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, portf\u00f6y\u00fc korumak i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir y\u00f6ntem sunar. Bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlar, piyasan\u0131n \u00fcst \u00fcste gelen riskleri fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yak\u0131n vadede olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jeopolitik gerilim ve merkez bankas\u0131 rotas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015firken dolar r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 sert esiyor: DXY 107,50 \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseliyor, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Opsiyon\/straddle ve Brent-WTI spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30855","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30855","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30855"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30855\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30855"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30855"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30855"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}