{"id":30849,"date":"2026-03-20T20:02:49","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T20:02:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-guclu-dolarin-geri-donmesiyle-15870e-toparlandi-japonya-merkez-bankasinin-sahin-durusu-yukselisi-sinirliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T20:02:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T20:02:49","slug":"usd-jpy-guclu-dolarin-geri-donmesiyle-15870e-toparlandi-japonya-merkez-bankasinin-sahin-durusu-yukselisi-sinirliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-guclu-dolarin-geri-donmesiyle-15870e-toparlandi-japonya-merkez-bankasinin-sahin-durusu-yukselisi-sinirliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Dolar\u0131n geri d\u00f6nmesiyle 158,70\u2019e toparland\u0131; Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015fu y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 158,70 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,61 y\u00fckselen parite, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131. Hareket, son d\u00f6nemdeki oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) sonras\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve ABD politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesini izledi.\n\nABD Dolar\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizlere daha uzun s\u00fcre ara verece\u011fi (faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131) beklentisiyle destek buldu. Fed, faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u0131rakt\u0131. Jeopolitik gerilimlere ba\u011fl\u0131 belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi bekleyen yetkililerin say\u0131s\u0131 azald\u0131.\n\n<h3>Federal Reserve Policy Outlook<\/h3>\nCME FedWatch \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmleri, piyasalar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u0131l sonuna kadar faizin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. CME FedWatch, vadeli i\u015flemlere bakarak piyasan\u0131n Fed faiz beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en bir g\u00f6stergedir. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) de 99,50\u2019ye do\u011fru toparland\u0131. DXY, dolar\u0131n di\u011fer g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 genel de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endekstir.\n\nEnerji piyasas\u0131ndaki stres ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi, nakde y\u00f6nelimi (likidite talebini) art\u0131rarak Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekledi. Likidite, piyasada kolay al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131labilen nakit ve k\u0131sa vadeli varl\u0131klard\u0131r. Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da Dolar\u2019a ek destekle ili\u015fkilendirildi.\n\nJaponya\u2019da Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha a\u00e7\u0131k) duru\u015funu korudu; bu da Yen \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. BoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimine ba\u011fl\u0131 olas\u0131 yava\u015flaman\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olmas\u0131 halinde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.\n\nBoJ ayr\u0131ca artan enerji maliyetleri nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcme konusunda belirsizli\u011fe dikkat \u00e7ekti. ABD, \u0130srail ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 i\u00e7eren jeopolitik gerilimler riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 (daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmeyi) art\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu durum Yen\u2019i destekleyebilir. Ancak k\u0131sa vadede ABD politikas\u0131na dair beklentiler daha belirleyici oldu.\n\n<h3>Rate Differentials And Market Positioning<\/h3>\nABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 paritenin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirliyor ve USD\/JPY\u2019yi 159,00 seviyesine do\u011fru itiyor. Faiz fark\u0131, iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki farkt\u0131r ve sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 etkiler. Fed\u2019in faizi s\u0131k\u0131 tutma kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki ana etken. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, geri \u00e7ekilmelerde sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce dolar al\u0131p yen satma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon a\u00e7man\u0131n) \u015fimdilik uygulanabilir bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nG\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar senaryosu, son bir y\u0131ld\u0131r g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz sa\u011flam ekonomik verilerle destekleniyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u015eubat 2026 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki sekt\u00f6rlerdeki istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisi 250 bin ki\u015filik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) ise %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini koruyor; bu oran Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k Fed\u2019e faiz indirmek i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor ve parite \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor.\n\nDi\u011fer tarafta, BoJ\u2019un olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyalleri izlenmeli. Bu, BoJ\u2019un 2024 ba\u015f\u0131nda negatif faiz d\u00f6nemini bitirmesinden sonra \u00f6nemli bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu da %2,2 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, merkez bankas\u0131na politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak (faiz art\u0131rarak talebi so\u011futmak) i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e veriyor. 160,00 \u00fczerindeki daha sert bir hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcnde, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte m\u00fcdahaleyi tetiklemi\u015f seviyeler nedeniyle \u201cm\u00fcdahale riski\u201d bulunuyor. M\u00fcdahale, genelde kurdaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in yetkililerin piyasaya d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla girmesidir.\n\nBu z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler nedeniyle, opsiyon i\u015flemi yapanlar y\u00fckselen oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. Opsiyon, belirli bir fiyattan alma veya satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmedir. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki belirsizlik ve WTI ham petrol\u00fcn (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zor bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. Straddle veya strangle gibi stratejiler, her iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Straddle, ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almakt\u0131r. Strangle ise ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almakt\u0131r; genelde daha ucuz olur ancak daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket ister.\n\nDaha sab\u0131rl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m i\u00e7in, carry trade (faiz fark\u0131ndan gelir elde etmeyi hedefleyen i\u015flem) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir strateji olmaya devam ediyor. Uzun USD\/JPY pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131mak, Fed ile BoJ aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 sayesinde pozitif swap (g\u00fcnl\u00fck ta\u015f\u0131ma faizi gelirini) toplama imk\u00e2n\u0131 verebilir. Swap, pozisyonu gece ta\u015f\u0131man\u0131n faiz etkisidir. Bu, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini beklerken d\u00fczenli bir getiri sa\u011flayabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dikkat: USD\/JPY 158,70\u2019e toparland\u0131; Fed\u2019in faizi y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi ve jeopolitik stres dolar\u0131 destekliyor. BoJ \u015fahin kalsa da faiz fark\u0131 159-160 band\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. M\u00fcdahale riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30849","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30849"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30849\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}