{"id":30789,"date":"2026-03-20T05:03:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T05:03:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/yendeki-genis-capli-guclenme-usd-jpyyi-125-dusurerek-15800in-altina-yaklasik-15780e-cekti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T05:03:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T05:03:30","slug":"yendeki-genis-capli-guclenme-usd-jpyyi-125-dusurerek-15800in-altina-yaklasik-15780e-cekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/yendeki-genis-capli-guclenme-usd-jpyyi-125-dusurerek-15800in-altina-yaklasik-15780e-cekti\/","title":{"rendered":"Yendeki geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme USD\/JPY\u2019yi %1,25 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek 158,00\u2019in alt\u0131na, yakla\u015f\u0131k 157,80\u2019e \u00e7ekti"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,25 gerileyerek yeniden 158,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi ve hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda 160,00\u2019a yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra g\u00fcn\u00fc 157,80 civar\u0131nda tamamlad\u0131. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u00f6nceki be\u015f seansta g\u00f6r\u00fclen kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 sildi. Kur, ocak sonundan bu yana 152,00\u2013160,00 band\u0131nda hareket ediyor.\n\nJaponya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini %0,75\u2019te sabit tuttu. BoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda, Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 artan ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u015firketlerin maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlara daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yans\u0131tmas\u0131na (maliyet ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi) ve \u00fccretler ile fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015fa dikkat \u00e7ekti.\n\n\u0130lk \u201cshunto\u201d (Japonya\u2019da her y\u0131l baharda yap\u0131lan \u00fccret pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcreci) \u00fccret talebi verileri ortalama %5,9 seviyesinde. En b\u00fcy\u00fck sendika konfederasyonlar\u0131ndan Rengo\u2019nun ilk tur sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 23 Mart\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Japon piyasalar\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Bahar Ekinoksu tatili nedeniyle kapal\u0131; bu durum i\u015flemlerin zay\u0131flamas\u0131na (likiditenin d\u00fc\u015fmesine) yol a\u00e7abilir.\n\nABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu; karar 11\u2019e 1 oyla al\u0131nd\u0131 ve Vali Miran faiz indiriminden yana oy kulland\u0131. Projeksiyonlar bu y\u0131l bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. \u015eubat \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (PPI: \u00fcretici maliyetlerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7er) ayl\u0131k %0,7 ile %0,3 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131.\n\nABD\u2019de haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 205 bine gerileyerek 215 bin beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ise ayl\u0131k %17,6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte spot seviye 157,85. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama (EMA: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) 156,70 civar\u0131nda, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 153,70 \u00e7evresinde. Diren\u00e7 158,00 ve 159,90; destek 156,70, 155,90 ve 153,70 seviyelerinde.\n\nUSD\/JPY\u2019nin 158,00 alt\u0131na sert gerilemesi, k\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filimde (momentum) de\u011fi\u015fim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu hareket ABD verilerindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan \u00e7ok, BoJ\u2019un \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimi) mesajlar\u0131 sonras\u0131 yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden kaynakland\u0131. Piyasada, beklenenden daha kararl\u0131 bir BoJ ile temkinli bir Fed aras\u0131nda geni\u015f ve oynak bir bant olu\u015ftu.\n\nBoJ\u2019un enflasyon kayg\u0131s\u0131 ana tetikleyici. \u00dccret taleplerinin %5,9\u2019a yakla\u015fmas\u0131 belirleyici olabilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte 2024\u2019te \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 30 y\u0131l sonra ilk kez %5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, BoJ\u2019un negatif faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 bitirmesinde \u00f6nemli bir etken olmu\u015ftu. Bu \u00f6rnek, Ueda\u2019n\u0131n uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ciddiye al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; 23 Mart\u2019taki Rengo sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 y\u00fcksek \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frularsa ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir.\n\nABD taraf\u0131nda dolar\u0131n \u015fu a\u015famada net bir y\u00fckseli\u015f nedeni zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. PPI ayl\u0131k %0,7 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelse de, ge\u00e7en ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00c7ekirdek PCE Fiyat Endeksi (Fed\u2019in izledi\u011fi, g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k e\u011filimin %2,8\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi ve olas\u0131 bir Fed faiz indirimi beklentisini tamamen ortadan kald\u0131rmad\u0131. BoJ\u2019un daha \u201csert\u201d, Fed\u2019in ise veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmas\u0131, USD\/JPY\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\n\nBu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. 160,00 seviyesinden sert geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Japon yetkililerin piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi b\u00f6lgeye yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in yukar\u0131da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu da, vade sonunda de\u011fersiz kalma ihtimali y\u00fcksek al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (out-of-the-money call) satmay\u0131 veya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli \u201ccall spread\u201d (bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131ml\u0131 ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satma) kurmay\u0131, prim geliri (opsiyon primi) elde ederken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir yakla\u015f\u0131m haline getiriyor.\n\nPozisyonlama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 (hedge) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. 156,70 ana destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) almak, BoJ\u2019un \u015fahin s\u00f6ylemi g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse daha derin d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler i\u00e7in JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (yenin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131ndan yararlanma arac\u0131) almak, \u00f6zellikle gelecek haftaki \u00fccret verileri \u00f6ncesinde yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi s\u00fcrerse do\u011frudan kazan\u00e7 yolu olabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dolar\/yen 158 alt\u0131na sert indi; BoJ\u2019un \u015fahin mesaj\u0131 yen\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Fed temkinli, bant 152\u2013160\u2019ta oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek. G\u00f6zler 23 Mart Rengo verisinde; 160 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30789","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30789","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30789"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30789\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30789"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30789"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30789"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}