{"id":30770,"date":"2026-03-20T02:03:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T02:03:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/hisse-senedi-piyasalari-daha-da-geriledi-petrolun-sicramasiyla-dow-46-000in-altina-indi-abdde-stagflasyon-endiseleri-artti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T02:03:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T02:03:59","slug":"hisse-senedi-piyasalari-daha-da-geriledi-petrolun-sicramasiyla-dow-46-000in-altina-indi-abdde-stagflasyon-endiseleri-artti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/hisse-senedi-piyasalari-daha-da-geriledi-petrolun-sicramasiyla-dow-46-000in-altina-indi-abdde-stagflasyon-endiseleri-artti\/","title":{"rendered":"Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 daha da geriledi; petrol\u00fcn s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla Dow 46.000\u2019in alt\u0131na indi, ABD\u2019de stagflasyon endi\u015feleri artt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD hisseleri Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden geriledi. Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi 46.000 puan\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. S&#038;P 500 yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Nasdaq Bile\u015fik Endeksi yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 de\u011fer kaybetti.\n\nSat\u0131\u015flar genele yay\u0131ld\u0131. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u015firketleri izleyen Russell 2000, 52 haftal\u0131k zirvesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 gerileyerek \u201cd\u00fczeltme\u201d (zirveden %10 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Dow, 50.500\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeki rekor seviyesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %9 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da. Ayr\u0131ca 46.700 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) da alt\u0131na indi.\n\n<h3>Enerji \u015eoku Piyasalar\u0131 Vurdu<\/h3>\nBrent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 118 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k 112 dolara gev\u015fedi. ABD ham petrol\u00fc WTI ise 97 dolara do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aksatt\u0131 ve ihracat piyasas\u0131ndan g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varilin \u00e7ekilmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Avrupa\u2019da do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 da %35\u2019e kadar y\u00fckseldi.\n\nABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 11\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 1 oyla sabit tuttu. Fed \u00fcyelerinin faiz beklentilerini g\u00f6steren \u201cdot plot\u201d (nokta grafi\u011fi) 2026\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) tek bir indirime i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ancak yedi yetkili bu y\u0131l hi\u00e7 indirim beklemiyor. \u00c7ekirdek PCE (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu) 2026 tahmini %2,5\u2019ten %2,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi.\n\nFaiz vadeli piyasas\u0131na dayanan CME FedWatch g\u00f6stergesi, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar tek bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na koydu. \u0130\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 8 bin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 205 bine geriledi. S\u00fcregelen ba\u015fvurular (i\u015fsizlik \u00f6demesi almaya devam edenler) 10 bin art\u0131\u015fla 1,857 milyona \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Philadelphia Fed endeksi (b\u00f6lgesel imalat e\u011filimi anketi) 16,3\u2019ten 18,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.\n\nMicron, hisse ba\u015f\u0131na k\u00e2r\u0131n (EPS: hisse ba\u015f\u0131na kazan\u00e7) 12,20 dolar ve gelirin 23,86 milyar dolar gelmesine ra\u011fmen yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; gelir y\u0131ll\u0131k %196 artt\u0131. \u015eirket 2026 sermaye harcamas\u0131 (capex: fabrika\/ekipman yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) hedefini 5 milyar dolar y\u00fckseltti. Boeing %3\u2019ten fazla, Caterpillar %2\u2019den fazla gerilerken Salesforce %1,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi.\n\n<h3>Oynakl\u0131k ve Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\nPiyasa b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji \u015foku ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) duru\u015funa tepki verirken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda belirleyici unsurun oynakl\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&#038;P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d, beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 32\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu seviye 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki bankac\u0131l\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 dalgalanmadan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, opsiyon primlerinin (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) pahal\u0131 kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar; bu da do\u011frudan \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynama) almay\u0131 maliyetli ve riskli hale getirir.\n\nAna endekslerde en kolay y\u00f6n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; \u00f6zellikle S&#038;P 500\u2019\u00fcn 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesiyle. Y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerinde sat\u0131\u015f yapmak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Riskin ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015flemler i\u00e7in vadeli kontratlar (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) veya \u201cay\u0131 call spread\u201d (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan opsiyon stratejisi) kullan\u0131labilir. Dow\u2019un 46.000\u2019in alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; k\u0131r\u0131lan 46.700 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 toparlanmalar \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynama) i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n\nPiyasada belirgin bir savunmac\u0131 rotasyon (riskli hisselerden daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlere kay\u0131\u015f) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu durum \u201cikili i\u015flem\u201d (pair trade: bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 al\u0131p benzerini satma) f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 yaratabilir. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirvelere yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde (XLE) uzun pozisyonlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k sanayi (XLI) ve iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim hisselerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc artan girdi maliyetlerine (ham madde\/enerji gibi maliyetler) ve zay\u0131flayan talebe en duyarl\u0131 alanlar bunlard\u0131r.\n\nMevcut tablo, 1970\u2019lerdeki stagflasyon (y\u00fcksek enflasyon + zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme) d\u00f6nemleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen dezenflasyonun (enflasyon h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi) aksine, Fed\u2019in eli daha ba\u011fl\u0131: B\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flasa bile enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutmak zorunda kalabilir. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde g\u00fcvendi\u011fi \u201cFed put\u201du (Fed\u2019in piyasay\u0131 destekleyece\u011fi beklentisi) zay\u0131flat\u0131r.\n\nPrimlerin y\u00fcksekli\u011fi nedeniyle do\u011frudan \u201cput\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) almak pahal\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Maliyeti azaltmak i\u00e7in SPDR S&#038;P 500 ETF (SPY) gibi endeks \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde \u201cput debit spread\u201d (bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put sat\u0131larak maliyetin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc strateji) tercih edilebilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n koruma talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc: B\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde put\/call oran\u0131 (sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu\/al\u0131m opsiyonu oran\u0131; y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e korunma ve korku artar) y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karak, pozisyonlanmada ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fcn endi\u015fe oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wall Street\u2019te sert sat\u0131\u015f: Dow 46 bin alt\u0131na inerken S&#038;P 500 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Enerji \u015foku, \u015fahin Fed ve VIX 32 \u00fczeri risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 t\u0131rmand\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30770\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}