{"id":30761,"date":"2026-03-19T23:03:36","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T23:03:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fedin-sahin-duraklamasina-ragmen-yatirimcilar-merkez-bankalarinin-hamlelerini-tartti-usd-jpy-15840a-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T23:03:36","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T23:03:36","slug":"fedin-sahin-duraklamasina-ragmen-yatirimcilar-merkez-bankalarinin-hamlelerini-tartti-usd-jpy-15840a-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fedin-sahin-duraklamasina-ragmen-yatirimcilar-merkez-bankalarinin-hamlelerini-tartti-usd-jpy-15840a-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duraklamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n hamlelerini tartt\u0131; USD\/JPY 158,40\u2019a geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyince per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 158,40\u2019a geriledi. Fed faizi sabit tuttu. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyonu (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) yukar\u0131 itebilece\u011fini ve enflasyonda net bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fclmeden faiz indiriminin gelmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.\n\nJaponya Merkez Bankas\u0131 politika faizini %0,75\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131 ve temkinli bir duru\u015f mesaj\u0131 verdi. Oylama, faizin de\u011fi\u015fmemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde 8, art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde 1 oy \u015feklinde sonu\u00e7land\u0131. BoJ ayr\u0131ca, ekonomi ve fiyatlar kendi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleriyle uyumlu ilerler ve %2 enflasyon hedefine ula\u015f\u0131labilir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrse faiz art\u0131rmaya devam edece\u011fini yineledi.\n\n<h3>Strait Of Hormuz Geopolitical Risks<\/h3>\nJaponya ve di\u011fer \u00fclkeler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ile ilgili ortak bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 (petrol ve gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015ftu\u011fu k\u00fcresel piyasa) istikrara kavu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in ad\u0131m atacaklar\u0131n\u0131, buna baz\u0131 \u00fcretici \u00fclkelerle \u00fcretimi art\u0131rma konusunda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n da dahil oldu\u011funu belirttiler. Bo\u011fazdan g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalar\u0131 desteklemeye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 da ifade ettiler.\n\nA\u00e7\u0131klamada \u0130ran\u2019dan tehditlere son vermesi, may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015femeyi durdurmas\u0131, \u0130HA (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) ile f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ve bo\u011faz\u0131 kapatmaya y\u00f6nelik di\u011fer giri\u015fimleri b\u0131rakmas\u0131 istendi. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n K\u00f6rfez\u2019de silahs\u0131z ticari gemilere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 k\u0131nand\u0131.\n\nTeknik analizde (fiyat grafikleri \u00fczerinden destek\/diren\u00e7 gibi seviyelerle de\u011ferlendirme), USD\/JPY 4 saatlik grafikte 158,38 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Parite, 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (basit hareketli ortalama: son 20 d\u00f6nemin ortalama fiyat\u0131) bulundu\u011fu 159,18\u2019in alt\u0131na indi; y\u00fckselen 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n 157,94 civar\u0131ndaki seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ve RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131\/ivmesini g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) 37\u2019ye do\u011fru geriledi.\n\nDiren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 hareketlerde zorlan\u0131lan seviye) 159,05 ve 159,29\u2019da izlenirken, destek (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketlerde tutunma seviyesi) 158,39 ve 158,06 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. 158,06 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa) 100 periyotluk SMA bir sonraki olas\u0131 seviye olabilir.\n\n<h3>Market Positioning And Option Strategies<\/h3>\nFed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) ra\u011fmen USD\/JPY\u2019nin 158,40\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fmesi, jeopolitik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n \u015fimdilik para politikas\u0131ndan daha bask\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim t\u0131rman\u0131rken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yeni g\u00fcvenli liman olarak yen al\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fcnya petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n (k\u00fcresel toplam petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte biri bu bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor; olas\u0131 bir aksama sert bir enerji \u015fokuna (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7rama) yol a\u00e7abilir.\n\nK\u0131sa vadede gerilimin daha da artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in, 158,06 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131ndaki bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (opsiyonda anla\u015fmada belirlenen al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m fiyat\u0131) sahip \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d (satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almak bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesiyle devam edebilecek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedeflerken, olas\u0131 azami zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Mevcut teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de bu negatif (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) beklentiyi destekliyor; parite k\u0131sa vadeli \u00f6nemli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi.\n\nYen i\u00e7in bu t\u00fcr g\u00fcvenli liman talebi daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; \u00f6zellikle 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizinde riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f sermayeyi Japonya\u2019ya y\u00f6nlendirmi\u015f, yen beklentilerin tersine belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015fti. Mevcut piyasa davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 da benzer bir tabloya i\u015faret ediyor: korku, d\u00f6viz ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n (para giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n) ana belirleyicisi oluyor.\n\nAncak ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131) g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemesi gereken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir unsur. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n 2024 ve 2025 boyunca USD\/JPY\u2019yi yukar\u0131 iten temel etkenlerden biri oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Jeopolitik tansiyon d\u00fc\u015ferse, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 BoJ\u2019un \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d duru\u015funa (faiz art\u0131rmakta isteksiz, gev\u015fek politika e\u011filimi) kar\u015f\u0131 Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funa yeniden d\u00f6nebilir ve parite i\u00e7in yeniden destekleyici bir zemin olu\u015fabilir.\n\nOlas\u0131 bir toparlanmaya pozisyon almak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, vadesi birka\u00e7 hafta ya da birka\u00e7 ay sonras\u0131 olan \u201ccall opsiyonu\u201d (alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de gerilim azal\u0131rsa temel y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler; ilk hedef 159,29 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, panik azald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temel hik\u00e2yenin (faiz fark\u0131 gibi ana nedenlerin) yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine dayan\u0131r.\n\nJeopolitik ve merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller nedeniyle ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmayan ancak sert bir fiyat hareketi bekleyenler i\u00e7in hem put hem de call opsiyonu almak (long straddle: ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma) etkili olabilir. Bu strateji, 158,00 alt\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ya da 159,50 \u00fczerine h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kritik geli\u015fme: Fed ve BoJ faizleri sabit tutarken USD\/JPY 158,40\u2019a indi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi yen talebini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Teknikte 158,06 destek, 159,29 diren\u00e7. Opsiyonda put\/call\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30761","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30761"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30761\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30761"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30761"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30761"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}