{"id":30751,"date":"2026-03-19T20:01:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T20:01:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ecb-baskani-christine-lagarde-faizleri-sabit-tutmanin-bankayi-olasi-buyuk-soklara-karsi-hazir-biraktigini-soyledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T20:01:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T20:01:54","slug":"ecb-baskani-christine-lagarde-faizleri-sabit-tutmanin-bankayi-olasi-buyuk-soklara-karsi-hazir-biraktigini-soyledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ecb-baskani-christine-lagarde-faizleri-sabit-tutmanin-bankayi-olasi-buyuk-soklara-karsi-hazir-biraktigini-soyledi\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde, faizleri sabit tutman\u0131n bankay\u0131 olas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131r b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi"},"content":{"rendered":"Christine Lagarde, ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda temel politika faizlerini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasay\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmek i\u00e7in kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ana faiz oranlar\u0131) de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini ve bas\u0131n\u0131n sorular\u0131n\u0131 yan\u0131tlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Karar\u0131n oybirli\u011fiyle al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.\n\nLagarde, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 (krediye eri\u015fim, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131 gibi genel para-finansman ortam\u0131) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. K\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin (\u00f6zellikle birka\u00e7 ay vadeli piyasa faizleri) belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi\u011fini de ekledi.\n\n

Y\u00f6netim Konseyi Bilgilendirmesi ve Hava<\/h3>\nLagarde, Y\u00f6netim Konseyi\u2019nin uzmanlar taraf\u0131ndan bilgilendirildi\u011fini, bunlar aras\u0131nda asker\u00ee konularda bir profes\u00f6r\u00fcn de bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Konseyin havas\u0131n\u0131n sakin ve kararl\u0131 oldu\u011funu, bilgiye odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.\n\nECB\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcyen b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015fokla (piyasalar\u0131 ve ekonomiyi h\u0131zla sarsan ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc geli\u015fme) ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in iyi konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Zaman \u00e7izelgesi (ne zaman ne yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na dair takvim) veremeyece\u011fini belirtti.\n\nFaizlerin sabit tutulmas\u0131 karar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, merkez bankas\u0131 duru\u015fu ile piyasadaki endi\u015feler aras\u0131nda belirgin bir gerilim g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Sava\u015f, Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fc (k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlamas\u0131nda referans t\u00fcr) 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; 2025 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz daha istikrarl\u0131 fiyatlara g\u00f6re bu ciddi bir s\u0131\u00e7rama. Bu durum tek ba\u015f\u0131na finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Piyasa risk primi (belirsizlik i\u00e7in talep edilen ek getiri) fiyatl\u0131yor; bug\u00fcnk\u00fc mesaj ise temkinli bekleyi\u015f.\n\nBir zaman \u00e7izelgesi verilmemesi bizim i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli sinyal; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc belirsizli\u011fin s\u00fcrece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. VSTOXX endeksi (Euro Stoxx 50 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 25\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 seyrederken, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131ktan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bunun i\u00e7in Euro Stoxx 50 \u00fczerinde straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 fiyattan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketine oynayan strateji) almak uygun olur; jeopolitik gerilimler (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 siyasi-asker\u00ee riskler) sakin bir d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\n

Faiz ve Risk \u0130\u00e7in Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\nAlmanya 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirilerinin son bir ayda 40 baz puan (0,40 y\u00fczde puan) y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck; ancak faizleri sabit tutma karar\u0131 bu hareketin abart\u0131l\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Euribor vadeli i\u015flemleriyle (Euro b\u00f6lgesinde bankalar aras\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7in piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir faiz patikas\u0131na (faizlerin izleyece\u011fi beklenti yolu) g\u00f6re pozisyon almal\u0131y\u0131z. Bu enerji \u015fokunun (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani sert art\u0131\u015f) b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flatma riski art\u0131k enflasyon riski kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc.\n\n2022\u2019deki enerji \u015fokuna bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, enflasyonun merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 ad\u0131m atmaya zorlayabildi\u011fini biliyoruz; ancak bu tablo farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Euro, \u015fahin bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015fu (faiz indirimi yapmama ve s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu koruma) ile g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu da EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (Euro\/dolar kurunda belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) riskimizi net tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in put (sat\u0131m opsiyonu: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.\n\nAsker\u00ee uzmandan brifing al\u0131nmas\u0131 s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve bunun \u201cnormal\u201d bir ekonomik \u015fok gibi g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da kuyruk risk (nadir ama \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131p yaratabilen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 senaryolar) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu nedenle daha geni\u015f hisse portf\u00f6ylerimizi buna g\u00f6re korumal\u0131y\u0131z. B\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put (mevcut fiyattan \u00e7ok a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 seviyelerde al\u0131nan, ucuz ama kriz an\u0131nda h\u0131zla de\u011ferlenebilen koruma) almak art\u0131k ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir maliyet haline geliyor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ECB faizi sabit tuttu, Lagarde \u201ctakvim yok\u201d dedi: Orta Do\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p petrol\u00fc 115$ \u00fcst\u00fcne itti. VSTOXX 25+ ortam\u0131nda straddle, EUR\/USD put ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck strike endeks putlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30751","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30751"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30751\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}