{"id":30745,"date":"2026-03-19T18:04:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T18:04:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ocak-ayinda-abdde-aylik-yeni-konut-satislari-587-bin-ile-720-binlik-beklentinin-altinda-kaldi-veriler-gosterdi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T18:04:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T18:04:23","slug":"ocak-ayinda-abdde-aylik-yeni-konut-satislari-587-bin-ile-720-binlik-beklentinin-altinda-kaldi-veriler-gosterdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ocak-ayinda-abdde-aylik-yeni-konut-satislari-587-bin-ile-720-binlik-beklentinin-altinda-kaldi-veriler-gosterdi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ocak ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de ayl\u0131k yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 587 bin ile 720 binlik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131, veriler g\u00f6sterdi"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Ocak ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda 587 bin seviyesine geriledi. Bu rakam, 720 binlik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.\n\nA\u00e7\u0131klanan veri, beklentinin 133 bin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Beklentiye g\u00f6re fark %18,5 oldu.\n\nOcak 2025 yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 verisini 587 bin ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir uyar\u0131 sinyali olarak de\u011ferlendirdik; piyasa beklentisi olan 720 binin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu sapma, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) 2024 boyunca uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutarak talebi yava\u015flatma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) ekonomiyi net bi\u00e7imde so\u011futmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu veri, o y\u0131l ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde beliren ilk \u00f6nemli zay\u0131flama i\u015faretlerinden biriydi.\n\nZay\u0131f konut verisi, gelecekteki faiz beklentilerini h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un (vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131ndan faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) izledi\u011fi \u015fekilde, Haziran 2025\u2019e kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 verinin ard\u0131ndan birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %40\u2019tan %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, tahvil faizlerinin (getiri oranlar\u0131n\u0131n) d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi beklentisiyle pozisyon alma sinyaliydi; \u00f6rne\u011fin uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvillerini izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda (ETF: borsada hisse gibi al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan fon) TLT gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde \u201ccall opsiyonu\u201d (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131narak de\u011ferlendirilebilirdi.\n\nFaizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ihtimali, hisse senetleri i\u00e7in genel olarak destekleyicidir; \u00f6zellikle faize duyarl\u0131 teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde. Bu, Nasdaq 100 \u00fczerinde call opsiyonu alarak (endekste y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen alma hakk\u0131) daha ucuz finansman\u0131n bir ralliye zemin haz\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle kurgulanabilecek bir senaryoydu. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2023 sonlar\u0131nda piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn bitti\u011fi inanc\u0131yla h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesine benzerdi.\n\nEkonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131nda gerileme riskini art\u0131rd\u0131. Uygun bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, dolar\u0131 di\u011fer para birimlerinden olu\u015fan bir sepete kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cshort\u201dlamak (dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayarak sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak) olabilirdi. Bu, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 izleyen fonlarda UUP gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131narak uygulanabilirdi.\n\nGenel piyasa a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olas\u0131 faiz indirimleri destekleyici olsa da, veri konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in do\u011frudan olumsuzdu. Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadeli taktik bir f\u0131rsat olarak XHB gibi konut \u00fcreticisi \u015firketleri izleyen ETF\u2019lerde put opsiyonu almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilirdi. B\u00f6ylece, daha sonra y\u0131l i\u00e7inde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck konut kredisi faizlerinin (mortgage) sekt\u00f6re destek verme ihtimali do\u011fmadan \u00f6nce, ilk olumsuz alg\u0131dan yararlanmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilirdi.\n<p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kritik sinyal: ABD\u2019de yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ocakta 587 bine inerek 720 bin beklentiyi %18,5 a\u015ft\u0131. Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 so\u011futuyor; faiz indirimi ihtimali artt\u0131, tahvil\/teknoloji destek, dolar ve konut hisseleri bask\u0131da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30745"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30745\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}