{"id":30741,"date":"2026-03-19T17:04:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T17:04:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-ortadogu-geriliminin-talebi-sinirlamasi-ve-cta-satislari-nedeniyle-altin-baski-altinda\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T17:04:42","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T17:04:42","slug":"td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-ortadogu-geriliminin-talebi-sinirlamasi-ve-cta-satislari-nedeniyle-altin-baski-altinda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-ortadogu-geriliminin-talebi-sinirlamasi-ve-cta-satislari-nedeniyle-altin-baski-altinda\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities\u2019ten Daniel Ghali: Ortado\u011fu geriliminin talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 ve CTA sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle alt\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda"},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities k\u0131demli emtia stratejisti Daniel Ghali\u2019ye g\u00f6re alt\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak \u201cresm\u00ee sekt\u00f6r\u201d (merkez bankalar\u0131 ve devlet kurumlar\u0131) al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131ndan olumsuz etkileniyor; ayr\u0131ca CTA\u2019lar (Commodity Trading Advisors: \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f kurallarla, trend ve fiyat sinyallerine g\u00f6re otomatik al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapan sistematik fonlar) sat\u0131\u015fa devam ediyor. Ghali, uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin (bo\u011fa trendi) teknik olarak h\u00e2l\u00e2 bozulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.\n\nGhali, \u00e7o\u011fu fiyat senaryosunda CTA\u2019lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede sat\u0131\u015fa devam etmesinin beklendi\u011fini, ancak sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Ayr\u0131ca, resm\u00ee kay\u0131tlara girmeyen alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edilen Orta Do\u011fu \u00fclkelerinin, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ekonomik maliyeti nedeniyle k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131ra indirebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.\n\nEnerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n bu riski enerji ithal eden di\u011fer \u00fclkelere de yayabilece\u011fini ekliyor. Resm\u00ee sekt\u00f6r deste\u011fi zay\u0131flarsa, kurumsal kanallar \u00fczerinden piyasaya kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n (\u00f6r. b\u00fcy\u00fck fonlar\u0131n i\u015flemleri) daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan h\u00e2le gelece\u011fini ifade ediyor.\n\nGhali, resm\u00ee talepteki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u201ckalabal\u0131k i\u015flem\u201d (\u00e7ok say\u0131da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 pozisyonda oldu\u011fu, ters hareketlerde sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n h\u0131zlanabildi\u011fi durum) i\u00e7inde kurumsal pozisyonlar i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir destek unsurunu ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; son aylarda fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131yan etkenlerden birinin de bireysel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 (retail) talebi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131 trend \u00e7izgisinin mevcut fiyatlar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 1000 dolar\/ons alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu; bu nedenle uzun vadeli trend bozulmadan da daha fazla geri \u00e7ekilme alan\u0131 bulundu\u011funu belirtiyor.\n\nCTA gibi sistematik fonlar\u0131n, g\u00fcnl\u00fck sat\u0131\u015f miktarlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olsa bile alt\u0131n satmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 2025\u2019teki tabloya d\u00f6n\u00fcp bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, Orta Do\u011fu merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik bask\u0131 nedeniyle alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 durdurma riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tespit etmi\u015ftik. Bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k art\u0131k ger\u00e7e\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\n\nSorun, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir bask\u0131yla geni\u015fliyor: WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD referans petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, enerji ithal eden \u00fclkelerin b\u00fct\u00e7eleri k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte zorlan\u0131yor. 2025 sonu verileri, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n al\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zaten g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu resm\u00ee sekt\u00f6r deste\u011fi olmadan alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131 daha hassas h\u00e2le geliyor.\n\nBu durum, \u201c\u00e7ok kalabal\u0131k\u201d h\u00e2le gelen pozisyona kat\u0131lan kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in riskli bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. 2025\u2019te fiyatlar\u0131 u\u00e7 seviyelere iten benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bireysel al\u0131mlar, art\u0131k resm\u00ee talebin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dayanak olmadan kal\u0131yor. Bu da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacak b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.\n\nAlt\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015fi teknik olarak s\u00fcrse de ana destek trend \u00e7izgisi mevcut seviyelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k 1000 dolar alt\u0131nda. Bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda genel bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131 bozulmadan daha derin bir fiyat d\u00fczeltmesi (geri \u00e7ekilme) i\u00e7in ciddi alan oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131k ihtimaline g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) almak ya da bear put spread (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan put al\u0131p-satma kombinasyonu; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) kurmak gibi.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alt\u0131nda alarm: Merkez bankas\u0131 talebi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, CTA sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 k\u00fcl\u00e7e al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131rlayabilir; enerji \u015foku bask\u0131y\u0131 yay\u0131yor. Bo\u011fa trendi s\u00fcrse de 1000$\/ons d\u00fczeltme alan\u0131 var.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30741","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30741"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30741\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30741"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}