{"id":30719,"date":"2026-03-19T13:04:34","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T13:04:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fedin-sahin-durusu-ortaminda-altin-subattan-bu-yana-en-dusuk-seviyeyi-gorurken-4-700-dolar-civarinda-dengelendi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T13:04:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T13:04:34","slug":"fedin-sahin-durusu-ortaminda-altin-subattan-bu-yana-en-dusuk-seviyeyi-gorurken-4-700-dolar-civarinda-dengelendi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fedin-sahin-durusu-ortaminda-altin-subattan-bu-yana-en-dusuk-seviyeyi-gorurken-4-700-dolar-civarinda-dengelendi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed’in \u015fahin duru\u015fu ortam\u0131nda alt\u0131n \u015eubat’tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6r\u00fcrken 4.700 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelendi"},"content":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n, 6 \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye gerileyerek Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 4.700 dolara do\u011fru indi. Bu hareket, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) **\u015fahin** (faizleri uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) bir politika \u00e7izgisi sinyali vermesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131yla geldi.\n\nABD verileri, man\u015fet **\u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (\u00dcFE\/PPI)** (\u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) \u015fubatta, \u00f6nceki aydaki %0,5 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %0,7 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00dcFE %3,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu oran \u015eubat 2025\u2019ten bu yana 12 ayl\u0131k bazda en b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f oldu.\n\n

Fed G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Jeopolitik Riskler<\/h3>\nFed, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan riskleri gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek y\u0131l sonu **PCE enflasyonu** (Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi; t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi) tahminini y\u00fckseltti. Ayr\u0131ca 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve bu y\u0131l bir faiz indirimi, 2027\u2019de de bir faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.\n\nK\u00f6rfez\u2019de, \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olarak tan\u0131mlanan G\u00fcney Pars gaz sahas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131 hedef al\u0131nd\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, enerji varl\u0131klar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olas\u0131 geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 misilleme uyar\u0131s\u0131 yaparken, haberlerde ABD\u2019nin daha geni\u015f bir askeri harek\u00e2t\u0131 ve Bat\u0131 Asya\u2019ya binlerce asker konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi belirtildi.\n\nPiyasalar ayr\u0131ca SNB, BoE ve ECB\u2019den gelecek politika mesajlar\u0131n\u0131; ABD haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131 ve **Philly Fed \u0130malat Endeksi\u2019ni** (Philadelphia Fed\u2019in b\u00f6lgesel imalat anketi; sekt\u00f6r nabz\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) izledi. Rapor, 19 Mart 09:02\u2019de d\u00fczeltilerek \u00f6nceki ay\u0131n \u00dcFE\u2019sinin %0,3 de\u011fil %0,5 oldu\u011fu belirtildi.\n\nTeknik a\u00e7\u0131dan fiyat, 5.040\u20135.035 dolar b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131na indi. Bu b\u00f6lge 4 saatlik grafikte **200 periyotluk EMA** (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama; trendi yumu\u015fatarak izleyen g\u00f6sterge) ile **%38,2 d\u00fczeltme (retracement) seviyesi**nin (\u00f6nceki hareketin geri alma oran\u0131) birle\u015fimiydi. **RSI** (g\u00f6receli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; 0-100 aras\u0131 momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 27,86 seviyesindeydi. Diren\u00e7ler 4.919,61 ve ard\u0131ndan 5.037,25 dolar; destekler 4.843, 4.801,97 ve 4.634,48 dolar olarak izleniyor.\n\nAlt\u0131n\u0131n 4.700 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rmesiyle, k\u0131sa vadede bask\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde. Bu bask\u0131n\u0131n ana nedeni Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu. CME\u2019nin **FedWatch arac\u0131** (vadeli i\u015flemlerden piyasan\u0131n faiz beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7er), haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faizlerin sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu da dolar\u0131, **getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klara** (faiz\/kupon \u00f6demesi olmayan alt\u0131n gibi) kar\u015f\u0131 destekliyor. Bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n olas\u0131 ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in **sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put)** (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 ya da **ay\u0131 put spread\u2019i** (daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put sat\u0131lan, maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f stratejisi) kurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n

Volatilite \u0130\u00e7in Strateji De\u011ferlendirmeleri<\/h3>\nBizce alt\u0131n \u00fczerindeki ana bask\u0131, Fed\u2019in enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede kararl\u0131 olmas\u0131. Son y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 \u00dcFE verisi de enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 2022 ve 2023\u2019te benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: alt\u0131n, Fed\u2019in sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nce zorlanm\u0131\u015f, ard\u0131ndan jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerle y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015fti. 4.800 dolar\u0131n (psikolojik ve teknik) alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 yak\u0131n vadede daha derin bir d\u00fczeltmeye te\u015fvik edebilir.\n\nAncak Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor ve do\u011frudan **k\u0131sa pozisyonu** (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) daha riskli hale getiriyor. **Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri** (ilerideki tarihte teslim i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan standart petrol s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) bu hafta varil ba\u015f\u0131na 130 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 2025 sonundaki arz \u015foklar\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskini ciddiye al\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, olas\u0131 ani \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli **zarar yazma ihtimali y\u00fcksek (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call)** (mevcut fiyattan daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, primleri daha ucuz; korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131labilir) bir **hedge** (korunma) olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.\n\nPara politikas\u0131 ile jeopoliti\u011fin z\u0131t etkileri **oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (volatiliteyi)** art\u0131r\u0131yor. **Cboe Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ)** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 30\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye 2025 ilkbahar\u0131ndaki bankac\u0131l\u0131k \u00e7alkant\u0131s\u0131ndan beri kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. B\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketi bekleyen ancak y\u00f6n konusunda karars\u0131z olanlar, **uzun straddle** (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve vadede call+put al\u0131m\u0131) veya **strangle** (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda call+put al\u0131m\u0131) stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir.\n\n\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 kritik olacak; bu kurumlardan gelebilecek **g\u00fcvercin** (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verisi de ekonominin sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00fcncel bir sinyal verecek. Bu \u00e7oklu etkiler nedeniyle alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda **z\u0131mni volatilitenin** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, bu kritik ba\u015fl\u0131klara kadar uzun vadeli pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 hale getirebilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: Fed\u2019in \u015fahin sinyali ve %3,4 \u00dcFE dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirince fiyat 4.700\u2019e indi. Teknik k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; K\u00f6rfez gerilimi, petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen volatilite y\u00f6n riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30719"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30719\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}