{"id":30715,"date":"2026-03-19T11:04:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T11:04:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fedin-kazanclarinin-ardindan-abd-dolari-dengelenirken-gozler-yaklasan-ecb-ve-boe-kararlarina-cevrildi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T11:04:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T11:04:28","slug":"fedin-kazanclarinin-ardindan-abd-dolari-dengelenirken-gozler-yaklasan-ecb-ve-boe-kararlarina-cevrildi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fedin-kazanclarinin-ardindan-abd-dolari-dengelenirken-gozler-yaklasan-ecb-ve-boe-kararlarina-cevrildi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019in kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD dolar\u0131 dengelenirken, g\u00f6zler yakla\u015fan ECB ve BoE kararlar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD Dolar\u0131, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD seans\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan yatay (konsolidasyon: fiyat\u0131n dar bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) kald\u0131. Piyasalar, SNB (\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131), BoE (\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131) ve ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 beklerken, ABD takviminde haftal\u0131k \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk kez ba\u015fvuranlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131) ve Ocak Yeni Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yer ald\u0131.\n\nFed politika faizini %3,5\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u0131rakt\u0131. SEP (Ekonomik Projeksiyon \u00d6zeti: Fed yetkililerinin faiz\/enflasyon\/tahminlerini i\u00e7eren rapor) 2026 ve 2027\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bps: 0,01 puan) indirimleri i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; yedi yetkili bu y\u0131l indirim beklemezken bir yetkili gelecek y\u0131l faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.\n\n<h3>Fed\u2019in Mesaj\u0131: Faizler Daha Uzun S\u00fcre Y\u00fcksek Kalabilir<\/h3>\n2026 sonu PCE enflasyonu (PCE: Fed\u2019in izledi\u011fi ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) Aral\u0131k\u2019taki %2,4\u2019ten %2,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseltildi; \u00e7ekirdek PCE (enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7) de %2,7 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Jerome Powell, daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini ve enflasyonda ilerleme durursa faiz indirimlerinin devam etmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.\n\nDolar Endeksi (USD Index) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,7 y\u00fckseldi ve Per\u015fembe sabah\u0131 100,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. BoJ (Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131) k\u0131sa vadeli faizini %0,75\u2019te tuttu; bir \u00fcye 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f istedi. USD\/JPY 160,00\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra 159,50 civar\u0131na geriledi.\n\nAvustralya\u2019da \u015eubat istihdam\u0131 20,3 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 48,9 bin artt\u0131; i\u015fsizlik %4,1\u2019den %4,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. AUD\/USD 0,7050\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de i\u015fsizlik %5,2\u2019de kald\u0131; \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %4,1\u2019den %3,8\u2019e geriledi. GBP\/USD 1,3300\u2019un alt\u0131nda seyrederken BoE\u2019nin faizinin %3,75\u2019te kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nEUR\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,8\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 1,1450\u2019nin \u00fczerinde tutundu. Alt\u0131n 5.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na ve 4.800 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol) ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %4\u2019l\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,5 d\u00fc\u015ferek 95,50 dolar civar\u0131na geriledi.\n\n<h3>Faiz, FX ve Emtialar \u0130\u00e7in \u0130\u015flem Fikirleri<\/h3>\nFed, faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma sinyali veriyor; bu durum ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekliyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki veriler enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi: Ocak 2026 T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek seyrederken, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 280 bin yeni istihdam ekledi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n zamanda faiz indirimine gitmesi i\u00e7in bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.\n\nBu tabloyla \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Basit bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, Dolar Endeksi (DXY) vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) alarak 101,00 \u00fczerine y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi ta\u015f\u0131mak olabilir. Alternatif olarak, dolar izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda (ETF: endeksi takip eden fon) nakit teminatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (cash-secured put: al\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n kullanmas\u0131 halinde hisseyi\/\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc almaya yetecek nakdi ay\u0131rarak put satmak) prim (opsiyon geliri) toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flar ve y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle uyumludur.\n\nBoJ taraf\u0131nda da enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fcndemde. 2025 sonu verilerinde Japonya\u2019da \u00fclke genelinde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, tek \u00fcyeden gelen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. BoJ i\u00e7indeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, piyasadan daha erken bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\nUSD\/JPY\u2019nin 2024 ortas\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyelerde olmas\u0131, Japon yetkililerden s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirme (verbal intervention: kur hakk\u0131nda sert mesajlarla piyasay\u0131 etkileme) veya do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale (piyasada al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak kuru etkileme) riskini y\u00fckseltiyor; 2022\u2019de benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullananlar, USD\/JPY\u2019de \u201cpara d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money put: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan uzakta olan put) alarak ani ve sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli koruma (hedge: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) sa\u011flayabilir. Bu, hem BoJ\u2019un beklenmedik y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimine hem de do\u011frudan kur m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131 tampon olur.\n\nG\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, emtialar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; \u00f6zellikle alt\u0131n, \u00f6nemli psikolojik seviyelerin alt\u0131na indi. Y\u00fcksek faiz, faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 (non-yielding assets: kupon\/faiz \u00f6demeyen varl\u0131klar) tutman\u0131n \u201cf\u0131rsat maliyetini\u201d art\u0131r\u0131r; bu da alt\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Petrolde ise son fiyat g\u00fcc\u00fc, Fed\u2019in enflasyon endi\u015felerini besleyerek enerji piyasas\u0131nda hassas bir denge olu\u015fturuyor.\n\nAlt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fundan, alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Petrol taraf\u0131nda fiyatlar, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep sinyalleri ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. WTI vadeli i\u015flemlerinde \u201ciron condor\u201d (ayn\u0131 anda iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131p satarak fiyat\u0131n bantta kalmas\u0131na oynanan strateji) satmak, fiyat\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90-100 dolar gibi bir aral\u0131kta kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine uygun olabilir.\n\nAvrupa\u2019da hem BoE hem de ECB politika faizini sabit tutmaya yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 ABD\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fudu; \u015eubat 2026 verileri her iki b\u00f6lgede man\u015fet enflasyonun (headline inflation: toplam enflasyon) %3,0\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na indi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu da Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 duru\u015fu teyit ediyor.\n\nFed ile Avrupa\u2019daki muadilleri aras\u0131ndaki bu fark\u0131n (policy divergence: politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Her iki paritede de \u201ccall spread\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (al\u0131m opsiyonunu sat\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m opsiyonu almak; kazanc\u0131 ve zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji), zay\u0131fl\u0131k veya yatay seyre oynarken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d mesaj\u0131 Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekledi: DXY 100 \u00fcst\u00fcnde. SNB-BoE-ECB bekleniyor. USD\/JPY 159,5. Alt\u0131n 5.000 alt\u0131, WTI 95,5\u2019e gev\u015fedi. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30715","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30715"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30715\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}