{"id":30683,"date":"2026-03-19T04:04:36","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T04:04:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/mufg-analisti-iran-catismasi-ve-hurmuz-bogazinin-kapanmasinin-2026da-usd-vndyi-27-000in-uzerine-tasiyabilecegi-uyarisinda-bulundu\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T04:04:36","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T04:04:36","slug":"mufg-analisti-iran-catismasi-ve-hurmuz-bogazinin-kapanmasinin-2026da-usd-vndyi-27-000in-uzerine-tasiyabilecegi-uyarisinda-bulundu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/mufg-analisti-iran-catismasi-ve-hurmuz-bogazinin-kapanmasinin-2026da-usd-vndyi-27-000in-uzerine-tasiyabilecegi-uyarisinda-bulundu\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG analisti, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019da USD\/VND\u2019yi 27.000\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu"},"content":{"rendered":"MUFG, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzamas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019da USD\/VND kurunu 27.000\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bankan\u0131n ana senaryo tahminleri, Mart 2026 i\u00e7in 26.300 ve Aral\u0131k 2026 i\u00e7in 26.600 seviyesinde.\n\nUSD\/VND\u2019nin 27.000\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryo, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 dolar oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. Ana senaryo ise Mart 2026\u2019dan sonra tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n zamanla \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelere gerilemesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nA\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (olumsuz) senaryoda MUFG, petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolarda kalmas\u0131 ve enerji arz\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde USD\/VND\u2019nin 27.700 veya daha y\u00fcksek olabilece\u011fini belirtti. Raporda kur hareketi; enerji \u015foku (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani ve sert y\u00fckseli\u015f) ve stagflasyon riski (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyretmesi) ile ili\u015fkilendirildi.\n\nMUFG, Vietnam\u2019\u0131 Japonya hari\u00e7 Asya\u2019da Hindistan ve Filipinler\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha az k\u0131r\u0131lgan olarak niteledi. Ancak enerji arz sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n, imalat faaliyetinin (sanayi \u00fcretimi) zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 \u00fczerinden Vietnam\u2019\u0131 yine de etkileyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.\n\nBrent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrini korurken, USD\/VND i\u00e7in ana senaryo zaten bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Spot kur (anl\u0131k piyasa kuru) bu hafta 26.500 seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131 ve ay sonu i\u00e7in beklenen 26.300\u2019\u00fcn belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bunun, piyasan\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n uzayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve tansiyonun h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesi ihtimalini zay\u0131f g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/VND kurundaki y\u00fckseli\u015ften ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (kurda sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n) artmas\u0131ndan faydalanabilecek stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Buna, ikinci \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in 27.000 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli bir fiyattan dolar alma hakk\u0131) veya VND sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli bir fiyattan dong satma hakk\u0131) bakmak da dahil. Teslimats\u0131z vadeli i\u015flemler (NDF; fiziki d\u00f6viz teslimi olmadan, vade sonunda aradaki fark\u0131n nakit \u00f6denmesiyle uzla\u015fan vadeli kur s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) de, dongun daha da zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle bug\u00fcnden g\u00f6rece avantajl\u0131 bir kuru sabitleme imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor.\n\nBu tablo, 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen bask\u0131lara benziyor. Vietnam\u2019\u0131n \u015fubat ithalat verileri enerji faturas\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %15 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; man\u015fet enflasyon (genel t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) %4,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Vietnam benzer \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 olsa da, bu stagflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 para birimi \u00fczerinde y\u00fck olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi uzarsa USD\/VND\u2019de 27.000 alarm\u0131! MUFG, Brent 100$ varsay\u0131m\u0131yla 2026\u2019da 27.000+; ana senaryo 26.300\/26.600. Petrol 120$ kal\u0131rsa 27.700+, stagflasyon riski artar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30683","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30683"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30683\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30683"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30683"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30683"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}