{"id":30681,"date":"2026-03-19T04:03:39","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T04:03:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/uob-ekonomistleri-endonezya-merkez-bankasinin-faizleri-475te-sabit-tuttugunu-ve-2026ya-kadar-sahin-durus-benimsedigini-belirtti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T04:03:39","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T04:03:39","slug":"uob-ekonomistleri-endonezya-merkez-bankasinin-faizleri-475te-sabit-tuttugunu-ve-2026ya-kadar-sahin-durus-benimsedigini-belirtti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/uob-ekonomistleri-endonezya-merkez-bankasinin-faizleri-475te-sabit-tuttugunu-ve-2026ya-kadar-sahin-durus-benimsedigini-belirtti\/","title":{"rendered":"UOB ekonomistleri, Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizleri %4,75\u2019te sabit tuttu\u011funu ve 2026\u2019ya kadar \u015fahin duru\u015f benimsedi\u011fini belirtti"},"content":{"rendered":"Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Bank Indonesia), mart ay\u0131nda politika faizini %4,75\u2019te sabit tuttu ve daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu savunan) bir tutuma ge\u00e7ti. UOB, art\u0131k BI faizinin 2026 sonuna kadar %4,75\u2019te kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve 2026\u2019da herhangi bir faiz indirimi beklemiyor.\n\nG\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmdeki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n mart toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Toplant\u0131da Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, d\u00fcnya genelinde faiz indirim beklentilerini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Bank Indonesia ayr\u0131ca, olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerine dair \u00f6nceki ifadeleri metinden \u00e7\u0131kararak faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.\n\n<h3>Politika G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Piyasa Etkileri<\/h3>\nBank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n, verilerle \u015fekillenen (enflasyon ve kur gibi g\u00f6stergelere g\u00f6re ayarlanan) bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 korurken para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, rupiah\u0131n (Endonezya para birimi) zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Bank Indonesia, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n seyrine dair \u00fc\u00e7 senaryo payla\u015ft\u0131: temel, orta ve a\u011f\u0131r.\n\nEnflasyona y\u00f6nelik ek riskler aras\u0131nda, daha s\u0131cak hava ko\u015fullar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olas\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn kay\u0131plar\u0131 (tar\u0131msal arz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc) yer al\u0131yor.\n\nBank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n beklenmedik \u015fekilde \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir \u015fekilde faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 nedeniyle, bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi beklentisiyle al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131 h\u0131zla kapatmak gerekiyor. Piyasa en az bir indirim fiyatl\u0131yordu; bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini de masaya getirerek yeni bir i\u015flem ortam\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bu da rupiah aleyhine (k\u0131sa rupiah) pozisyonlar\u0131n yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131 art\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde kur istikrar\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor.\n\nBu politikan\u0131n temel amac\u0131, bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalan rupiah\u0131 savunmak. Rupiah, yak\u0131n zamanda ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 16.100 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda enflasyonun %3,1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi ve Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 bu duru\u015fu destekliyor. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadede rupiah\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ya da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut kurun \u00fczerinde olan) USD\/IDR al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; dolar\u0131 belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) sat\u0131labilir.\n\nBu tablo, 2022\u2019deki duruma benziyor: bir\u00e7ok i\u015flemci, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hafife alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. H\u0131zl\u0131 politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bekleyenler piyasada ters tarafta kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. BI\u2019n\u0131n yeni ifadeleri benzer bir kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla rupiah aleyhine bahisler art\u0131k do\u011frudan merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politikas\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.\n\n<h3>\u0130\u015flem ve Korunma (Hedging) De\u011ferlendirmeleri<\/h3>\nPetrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n seyri konusundaki belirsizlik, USD\/IDR opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu, y\u00f6n konusunda emin olunmasa da sert hareket bekleniyorsa \u201cstraddle\u201d gibi yap\u0131larla (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak) oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temel, orta ve a\u011f\u0131r senaryolar\u0131, piyasada b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nEndonezya tahvillerine maruziyeti olanlar i\u00e7in bu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015f olumsuz bir etken; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle olu\u015fabilecek \u201csermaye kazanc\u0131\u201d (tahvil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesinden do\u011fan getiri) ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. Faiz swap piyasas\u0131nda (de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demesini sabit faizle de\u011fi\u015ftiren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), bu durum sabit faiz \u00f6demeyi tercih etmeyi (pay fixed; sabit \u00f6de\/de\u011fi\u015fken al) daha anlaml\u0131 k\u0131labilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fken faiz referans\u0131n\u0131n (piyasadaki \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct faiz) beklenildi\u011fi kadar d\u00fc\u015fmeyebilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. S\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma art\u0131k stratejinin daha kritik bir par\u00e7as\u0131.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u015eahin s\u00fcrpriz! Bank Indonesia faizi %4,75\u2019te tuttu; UOB 2026 sonuna kadar indirim beklemiyor. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi, enflasyon ve zay\u0131f rupiah\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riski fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30681"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30681\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}