{"id":30659,"date":"2026-03-18T23:06:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T23:06:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fed-karari-oncesinde-dxy-beklentileri-asan-ufenin-endeksi-yaklasik-03-yukseltmesinin-ardindan-100-seviyesine-yakin-seyretti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T23:06:32","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T23:06:32","slug":"fed-karari-oncesinde-dxy-beklentileri-asan-ufenin-endeksi-yaklasik-03-yukseltmesinin-ardindan-100-seviyesine-yakin-seyretti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-karari-oncesinde-dxy-beklentileri-asan-ufenin-endeksi-yaklasik-03-yukseltmesinin-ardindan-100-seviyesine-yakin-seyretti\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde DXY, beklentileri a\u015fan \u00dcFE\u2019nin endeksi yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3 y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan 100 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti"},"content":{"rendered":"Dolar Endeksi (DXY), \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3 y\u00fckselerek 99,85 seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Endeks, mart ba\u015f\u0131nda 97,00 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen dipten toparland\u0131. Ge\u00e7en hafta yeniden 100,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra bu seviyenin hemen alt\u0131nda dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.\n\nABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE\/PPI: fabrikadan-\u00fcreticiden \u00e7\u0131kan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin toptan fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verileri, \u015fubat ay\u0131nda toptan fiyatlar\u0131n ayl\u0131k bazda (m\/m: bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re) %0,7 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; beklenti %0,3\u2019t\u00fc. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (y\/y: ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re) art\u0131\u015f %3,4 ile %2,9 beklentinin \u00fczerinde geldi. \u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,9 ile %3,7 beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131.\n\nVeriler, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndaki son t\u0131rman\u0131\u015ftan \u00f6nce geldi. West Texas Intermediate (WTI: ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) ise varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faizi %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyordu.\n\nPiyasalar 2026 i\u00e7in sadece bir faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor; ilk ad\u0131m\u0131n en erken eyl\u00fclde gelmesi bekleniyor. Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti (SEP: Fed\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/enflasyon\/i\u015fsizlik ve faiz patikas\u0131na dair tahminleri), \u201cdot plot\u201d (Fed yetkililerinin faiz beklentilerini nokta grafikle g\u00f6steren tablo) ve Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 izlenecek ba\u015fl\u0131klar aras\u0131nda.\n\nG\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte DXY 99,83 seviyesinde; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama: son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) 98,50 civar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 99,05 civar\u0131na yak\u0131n. Destek (fiyat\u0131n tutunabilece\u011fi seviye) 99,00; ard\u0131ndan 98,50 ve 98,00. Diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fin zorlanabilece\u011fi seviye) 100,00 ve 100,50 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\nBeklentileri a\u015fan \u00fcretici fiyat verisi, enflasyonun kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; \u00f6zellikle petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolara yakla\u015fan son y\u00fckseli\u015fini hen\u00fcz tam yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini ve faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor.\n\n2025 sonundaki beklentilerden belirgin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f var. O d\u00f6nemde bu y\u0131l birka\u00e7 faiz indirimi bekleniyordu. \u015eimdi vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131 (futures: ileri tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131 bug\u00fcnden fiyatlayan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) 2026 i\u00e7in neredeyse tek bir indirimi bile zor fiyatl\u0131yor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli faiz fiyatlar\u0131na g\u00f6re Fed karar olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) eyl\u00fcle kadar ad\u0131m ihtimalini %52 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Faiz indirimi beklentilerinin geri \u00e7ekilmesi, dolar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek unsuru.\n\nDolar endeksinin 50 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n DXY\u2019de al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesine neden olabilir. Al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ya da uzun vadeli i\u015flem (long futures: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ara\u00e7lar. \u0130lk hedef psikolojik 100,00 seviyesi. 100,50 \u00fczerindeki kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma, daha sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.\n\nPowell\u2019\u0131n bug\u00fcn yapaca\u011f\u0131 bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert dalgalanmas\u0131) artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, EUR\/USD gibi maj\u00f6r paritelerde \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma; y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanma stratejisi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n sonucuna bahis oynamadan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiyat hareketinden getiri hedefler.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>DXY, s\u00fcrpriz \u00dcFE ile 99,85\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131: enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 ve 98 dolarl\u0131k petrol Fed\u2019i daha uzun s\u00fcre \u015fahin tutabilir. Piyasalar 2026\u2019da tek indirim fiyatl\u0131yor; 100-100,50 kritik diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30659"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30659\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}