{"id":30654,"date":"2026-03-18T23:03:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T23:03:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/yu-latin-amerika-devlet-tahvilleri-kuresel-capta-en-fazla-elde-tutulan-varlik-olmaya-devam-ediyor-yillik-ortalamalarin-%14-uzerinde-dusuk-agirlikta-tutulan-para-birimi-yok\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T23:03:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T23:03:08","slug":"yu-latin-amerika-devlet-tahvilleri-kuresel-capta-en-fazla-elde-tutulan-varlik-olmaya-devam-ediyor-yillik-ortalamalarin-%14-uzerinde-dusuk-agirlikta-tutulan-para-birimi-yok","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/yu-latin-amerika-devlet-tahvilleri-kuresel-capta-en-fazla-elde-tutulan-varlik-olmaya-devam-ediyor-yillik-ortalamalarin-%14-uzerinde-dusuk-agirlikta-tutulan-para-birimi-yok\/","title":{"rendered":"Yu: Latin Amerika devlet tahvilleri k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta en fazla elde tutulan varl\u0131k olmaya devam ediyor; y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamalar\u0131n %14 \u00fczerinde, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kta tutulan para birimi yok"},"content":{"rendered":"Latin Amerika \u00fclke tahvillerinde (devletin \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma senetleri) k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131 en y\u00fcksek seviyede; son 12 ayl\u0131k kayan ortalaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %14 \u00fczerinde ve y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana da hafif artt\u0131. B\u00f6lgede \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kta ta\u015f\u0131nan\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n az tuttu\u011fu) para birimi bulunmuyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n sabit getirili menkul k\u0131ymet (tahvil gibi d\u00fczenli faiz \u00f6deyen varl\u0131klar) pozisyonlar\u0131 2 puandan daha az geriledi.\n\nB\u00f6lge borcunda k\u0131sa pozisyon kullan\u0131m\u0131 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan i\u015flemler) azal\u0131rken, pozisyonlarda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir azalt\u0131m g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. D\u00f6viz ve faiz oran\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunman\u0131n (hedge: olumsuz harekete kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi mali koruma) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131, ABD politikas\u0131 veya genel finansal ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015firse Latin Amerika tahvillerini ani bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan h\u00e2le getiriyor.\n\n

Brezilya Selic Karar\u0131 Odakta<\/h3>\nBrezilya\u2019n\u0131n Selic (Brezilya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasa beklentisi, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 seviyesi %15 olan faiz i\u00e7in 50 baz puanl\u0131k indirimden (baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 50 baz puan = 0,50 puan) 25 baz puana kayd\u0131. B\u00f6lgenin mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylense de beklentiler bu y\u00f6nde g\u00fcncellendi.\n\nMetne g\u00f6re s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 korunma i\u015flemleri, ABD dolar\u0131 veya ABD faizleri \u00fczerinden do\u011frudan bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklenmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak ters senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 koruma olmamas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle sabit getirili varl\u0131klarda, Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) senaryolar\u0131 veya genel finansal ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015firse daha sert fiyat hareketleri yaratabilir.\n\nLatin Amerika tahvilleri h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201ckalabal\u0131k i\u015flem\u201d (\u00e7ok say\u0131da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 pozisyonda oldu\u011fu durum) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde; mevcut pozisyonlar bir y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %14 \u00fczerinde. Bu kadar yo\u011fun ilgi, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riski hafife ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir. Pozisyonlardaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, b\u00f6lgeden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015ftan \u00e7ok k\u00fcresel enflasyon fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ayarlanmas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.\n\nBa\u015fl\u0131ca k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k, ABD faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesine veya dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunman\u0131n \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131na (opsiyon: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Meksika Pesosu ve Brezilya Reali i\u00e7in ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklentili dalgalanma) yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131l\u0131n diplerinde. Bu da koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) bug\u00fcn ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015fekilde ucuz k\u0131l\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n ABD finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan kaynakl\u0131 belirgin bir riski fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\n

D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Korunma, Kalabal\u0131k Pozisyonu A\u00e7\u0131kta B\u0131rak\u0131yor<\/h3>\nBu rahatl\u0131k, Fed\u2019in 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201dde kalaca\u011f\u0131 inanc\u0131na ba\u011flan\u0131yor. Nitekim Fed fon vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (Fed funds futures: politika faizi beklentisini yans\u0131tan vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) piyasada y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in %3,25 civar\u0131nda sabit bir politika faizi fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ise %10\u2019un alt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortak beklenti, Fed\u2019den beklenmedik \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir kaymay\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyici h\u00e2line getiriyor.\n\nBu dengesiz risk-getiri yap\u0131s\u0131 (olumsuz s\u00fcrprizin etkisinin daha b\u00fcy\u00fck olmas\u0131) nedeniyle daha temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m, b\u00f6lgenin ana para birimlerinde veya EMB gibi Latin Amerika tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) vadesi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzakta (out-of-the-money: \u015fu anki fiyata g\u00f6re hemen k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7meyen) ucuz sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 almak olabilir. Bu, finansal ko\u015fullar beklenmedik \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131rsa sert geri \u00e7ekilmeye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle maruz kalma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu bor\u00e7ta k\u0131sa pozisyon kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi de olumsuz senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok az ki\u015finin konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n\n2013\u2019teki \u201cTaper Tantrum\u201d (Fed\u2019in parasal geni\u015flemeyi azaltma sinyali sonras\u0131 piyasada sert dalgalanma ve geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) \u00f6ncesinde benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Fed y\u00f6nlendirmesindeki s\u00fcrpriz de\u011fi\u015fim, korunmas\u0131z geli\u015fen \u00fclke varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flara yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ge\u00e7en haftaki veriler Latin Amerika borcuna giri\u015flerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stererek piyasan\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 tek tarafa y\u00fckl\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. Bu pozisyonlanma, tarih tekerr\u00fcr ederse t\u00fcm segmenti k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dikkat: Latin Amerika tahvilleri \u201ckalabal\u0131k i\u015flem\u201de d\u00f6nd\u00fc. K\u00fcresel pozisyonlar y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n %14 \u00fcst\u00fcnde, hedge zay\u0131f; dolar\/faiz \u015foku sert sat\u0131\u015f getirebilir. Selic \u00f6ncesi risk art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30654"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30654\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}