{"id":30653,"date":"2026-03-18T23:02:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T23:02:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-ufesinin-beklentileri-asmasinin-ardindan-piyasalar-fedin-sahin-durusunu-yeniden-fiyatladi-gbp-usd-021-dususle-13320-civarina-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T23:02:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T23:02:10","slug":"abd-ufesinin-beklentileri-asmasinin-ardindan-piyasalar-fedin-sahin-durusunu-yeniden-fiyatladi-gbp-usd-021-dususle-13320-civarina-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-ufesinin-beklentileri-asmasinin-ardindan-piyasalar-fedin-sahin-durusunu-yeniden-fiyatladi-gbp-usd-021-dususle-13320-civarina-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD \u00dcFE\u2019sinin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalar Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu yeniden fiyatlad\u0131; GBP\/USD %0,21 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,3320 civar\u0131na geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"GBP\/USD, ABD\u2019de \u00fcretici enflasyonu verisinin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,21 d\u00fc\u015ferek 1,3320 civar\u0131na geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) %0,20 art\u0131\u015fla 99,76\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\n\nABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (PPI: \u00fcreticilerin satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) \u015fubatta y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 artt\u0131; bu oran tahminlerin ve ocaktaki %2,9\u2019un \u00fczerinde. \u00c7ekirdek PPI (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 tutulmu\u015f PPI) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5\u2019ten %3,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi.\n\n<h3>Piyasa S\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcleri Ve Risk G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nPiyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda Orta Do\u011fu da vard\u0131. \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n gaz tesislerini vurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Tahran, Al-Jazeera\u2019ya g\u00f6re \u201cd\u00fc\u015fman\u0131n altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131\u201d hedef alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.\n\nPiyasalar ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed: ABD\u2019nin faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 veren merkez bankas\u0131) karar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Faizin sabit kalmas\u0131 ve g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f tahminlerin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Dot plot\u2019a (Fed yetkililerinin gelecek d\u00f6nem faiz beklentilerini nokta grafi\u011fiyle g\u00f6steren tablo) ve ard\u0131ndan Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na odaklan\u0131lacak.\n\nOdak per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) karar\u0131na kayacak. Piyasalar Banka Faizi\u2019nin %3,75\u2019te kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ilk g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyalin ise Mart 2027\u2019ye yak\u0131n bir d\u00f6nemde gelebilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\nGrafikte diren\u00e7 1,3355\u20131,3360 band\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 1,3450 ve 1,3530 seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Destek seviyeleri 1,3300, 1,3220 ve 1,3100.\n\n<h3>\u0130\u015flem Plan\u0131 Ve Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\nABD\u2019de \u00fcretici enflasyonunun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi, Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz ve s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fa i\u015faret eden) bir mesaj verebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. PPI\u2019daki beklenmedik %3,4\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f, yak\u0131n zamanda a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u015fubat T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) raporunu da destekliyor; raporda \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,3\u2019te kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 seyri, yak\u0131n vadede Fed\u2019in faiz indirimini zorla\u015ft\u0131rarak dolar\u0131 destekliyor.\n\nCME FedWatch Tool\u2019a (vadeli i\u015flemlerden t\u00fcretilen olas\u0131l\u0131klarla Fed ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dair piyasa beklentisini g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) g\u00f6re haziranda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Bu, sadece ge\u00e7en ay fiyatlanan yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u2019lik olas\u0131l\u0131ktan h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. Beklentilerdeki bu kayma, sterlin gibi para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden faydalanan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda DXY\u2019nin 100,00 seviyesini test etmesi g\u00fcndemde.\n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilim de \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d dolar\u0131na (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 para birimi) para giri\u015fini art\u0131rarak GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Piyasadaki korkuyu \u00f6l\u00e7en \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge olan CBOE Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (VIX: S&#038;P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan, belirsizli\u011fi\/oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) bu hafta 14,5\u2019ten 17,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n belirsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ckoruma\u201d (hedge\/riski azaltma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyon) ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. B\u00f6yle bir ortam, korunma amac\u0131yla dolar uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyon) destekliyor.\n\nBenzer bir tablo 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: s\u00fcrpriz enflasyon verileri, merkez bankas\u0131 beklentilerinin h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na (piyasan\u0131n yeni bilgiyle fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla g\u00fcncellemesi) ve kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fi ve faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 (higher-for-longer: faizlerin beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek seyretmesi) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne g\u00f6re pozisyon alanlar avantaj sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm benzerlik ta\u015f\u0131yor; bu da temkinli ve savunmac\u0131 bir duru\u015fu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.\n\nFed\u2019in olas\u0131 patikas\u0131 ile BoE\u2019nin daha dura\u011fan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma, ana i\u015flem temalar\u0131ndan biri haline geliyor. BoE\u2019nin faizi %3,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131 beklenirken faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (iki \u00fclke faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark) a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 sterlini bask\u0131lamaya devam edebilir. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede GBP\/USD vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde sat\u0131\u015f (futures: gelecekte teslim\/uzla\u015fma i\u00e7in i\u015flem g\u00f6ren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) veya do\u011frudan sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\nMerkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) artmas\u0131 beklenebilir. 1,3300 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun hak fiyat\u0131) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya (break: kritik deste\u011fin alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f) oynama imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir alternatif olarak \u201cput spread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede bir put al\u0131p daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put satma stratejisi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir: 1,3250 put al\u0131p 1,3150 put satmak gibi.\n\nTeknik tarafta 1,3510 civar\u0131ndaki hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (moving average: fiyat\u0131n belirli d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131) alt\u0131na sarkma, temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de destekliyor. 1,3300 seviyesinin korunamamas\u0131 1,3220 destek b\u00f6lgesinin test edilmesini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. 1,3360 diren\u00e7 alan\u0131na do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015fler, k\u0131sa pozisyon ba\u015flatmak veya art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak izlenebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S\u00fcrpriz gelen ABD PPI dolar\u0131n ate\u015fini yakt\u0131: GBP\/USD 1,3320\u2019ye indi, DXY 99,76. Fed\u2019den \u015fahin mesaj, BoE\u2019nin dura\u011fanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu riski bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Teknikte 1,3300 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30653","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30653"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30653\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30653"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30653"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30653"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}