{"id":30649,"date":"2026-03-18T21:01:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T21:01:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-fed-kararini-beklerken-abd-islemlerinde-15950ye-dogru-yukseldi-faizlerin-degismeden-kalmasi-bekleniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T21:01:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T21:01:54","slug":"usd-jpy-fed-kararini-beklerken-abd-islemlerinde-15950ye-dogru-yukseldi-faizlerin-degismeden-kalmasi-bekleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-fed-kararini-beklerken-abd-islemlerinde-15950ye-dogru-yukseldi-faizlerin-degismeden-kalmasi-bekleniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, Fed karar\u0131n\u0131 beklerken ABD i\u015flemlerinde 159,50\u2019ye do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi; faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY ABD seans\u0131nda 159,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fckseldi. Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131, Ekonomik Tahminler \u00d6zeti\u2019ni (Summary of Economic Projections: Fed \u00fcyelerinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon ve faiz beklentileri) yay\u0131mlamas\u0131 ve Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenlemesi bekleniyor.\n\nPiyasalar, ABD ile \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fini izliyor. Per\u015fembe sabah\u0131 erken saatlerde Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) karar\u0131 da g\u00fcndemde.\n\n<h3>Bank Of Japan Rate Outlook<\/h3>\nJaponya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, politika faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasaya y\u00f6n veren ana faiz oran\u0131) %0,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle BoJ\u2019un temkinli kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek \u015eubat \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE\/PPI: \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en veri; \u201c\u00e7ekirdek\u201d enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemleri hari\u00e7 tutar) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,9\u2019a y\u00fckselerek %3,7 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. Veri, Orta Do\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enerji fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermedi.\n\n4 saatlik grafikte USD\/JPY 159,43\u2019te i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 20 d\u00f6nem ile 100 d\u00f6nem Basit Hareketli Ortalamalar\u0131n (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki fiyatlar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu g\u00f6steren momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 50 civar\u0131ndan 60\u2019a do\u011fru toparland\u0131.\n\nDestek seviyeleri 158,96 ve 158,57 olarak izlenirken, 100 d\u00f6nem SMA 157,70 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 159,59\u2019da; bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 yeni zirvelere i\u015faret edebilir.\n\n<h3>Rate Differentials And Intervention Risk<\/h3>\nMart 2025\u2019te USD\/JPY\u2019nin, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 y\u00fcksek jeopolitik gerilim ortam\u0131nda 159,50\u2019ye y\u00f6neldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Fed, \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyonun h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken faizlerde s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu koruyordu. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve temkinli BoJ birle\u015fince paritenin y\u00fckseli\u015fi i\u00e7in uygun zemin olu\u015fmu\u015ftu.\n\nMart 2026\u2019daki piyasada da bu i\u015flemi s\u00fcr\u00fckleyen ana unsur faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) olmaya devam ediyor. Fed politika faizi (Fed Funds Rate: ABD\u2019de bankalararas\u0131 gecelik faiz i\u00e7in hedef aral\u0131k) \u015fu anda %4,75. BoJ ise faizini yaln\u0131zca %1,00\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karabildi; dolar lehine b\u00fcy\u00fck fark s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u015eubat 2026 ABD enflasyon verilerinde T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimi) %3,5 ile y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ederek Fed\u2019in sert faiz indirimleri i\u00e7in alan\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.\n\nUSD\/JPY\u2019nin 162,00\u2019ye yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bu ortamda, sert bir geri \u00e7ekilme veya resm\u00ee m\u00fcdahale riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullanmak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flarken azami zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon \u00fccreti) s\u0131n\u0131rlar. 2022-2024 d\u00f6neminde 160,00 \u00fczerindeki seviyelerde Japon yetkililerden s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131n daha s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu da do\u011frudan uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 daha riskli hale getiriyor.\n\nStratejiyi geli\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u201cbull call spread\u201d (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread: bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu yap\u0131, i\u015flem maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sat\u0131lan opsiyon al\u0131nan opsiyonun bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 finanse eder. Mevcut ortamda bu yakla\u015f\u0131m \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; zira 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda yen i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) ortalama %11,5 ile g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek seyrediyor ve opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dolar\/yen 159,50\u2019de Fed \u00f6ncesi t\u0131rman\u0131yor: faiz sabit, Powell ve projeksiyonlar kritik. Piyasalar \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131\u2013enerji etkisini ve BoJ\u2019un temkinli duru\u015funu fiyatl\u0131yor; m\u00fcdahale riski masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30649","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30649"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30649\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}