{"id":30645,"date":"2026-03-18T20:05:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T20:05:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-boc-faizi-225te-sabit-tuttu-seviyenin-hala-uygun-olduguna-dair-sinyal-verdi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T20:05:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T20:05:46","slug":"td-securities-boc-faizi-225te-sabit-tuttu-seviyenin-hala-uygun-olduguna-dair-sinyal-verdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-boc-faizi-225te-sabit-tuttu-seviyenin-hala-uygun-olduguna-dair-sinyal-verdi\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities: BoC faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit tuttu; seviyenin h\u00e2l\u00e2 uygun oldu\u011funa dair sinyal verdi"},"content":{"rendered":"Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC), politika faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tuttu ve mevcut gecelik faizin uygun oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyen y\u00f6nlendirmeyi (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gelecekteki faiz patikas\u0131na dair mesaj\u0131) metinden \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Banka a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, ocaktan bu yana gelen verilerin daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret edildi.\n\nBanka, b\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc, enflasyon risklerinin ise yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca k\u0131sa vadede enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelmeyi\u201d (ge\u00e7ici etkileri kararlar\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yans\u0131tmay\u0131) planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak bu art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyona d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesine izin vermeyece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.\n\n

Politika Riskleri Gev\u015femeye Daha Yak\u0131n<\/h3>\nTD Securities, k\u0131sa vadede para politikas\u0131 risklerinin gev\u015feme y\u00f6n\u00fcne (faiz indirimi ihtimaline) daha yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Kurum, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da uzun s\u00fcrecek bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n Banka\u2019n\u0131n duru\u015funu yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesine yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini ekledi.\n\nRaporda, stagflasyon (b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131f seyrederken enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) riskine de\u011finildi ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Ayr\u0131ca Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n, \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d d\u00f6nemlerinde (piyasalar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neldi\u011fi sat\u0131\u015f dalgalar\u0131) ABD dolar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki benzer para birimlerine k\u0131yasla daha az oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi; bunun da petrol ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131n (ihra\u00e7 fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithal fiyatlar\u0131na g\u00f6re durumu) deste\u011fiyle ili\u015fkili oldu\u011fu ifade edildi.\n\nTD Securities, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrerse USD\/CAD\u2019nin (ABD dolar\u0131\/Kanada dolar\u0131 kuru) yukar\u0131 gitmesini bekliyor. Gerek\u00e7e olarak ABD lehine faiz ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme farklar\u0131n\u0131 ve s\u00fcren riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ortam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.\n\n

Faizler ve D\u00f6viz Pozisyonlamas\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\nBoC\u2019nin i\u015faret etti\u011fi stagflasyon riskleri bug\u00fcn ana g\u00fcndem. \u015eubat 2026 enflasyon verisinin %2,9 ile \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen) gelmesi ve Banka\u2019n\u0131n hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede yeni faiz indirimlerini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Buna, en son i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc anketinde istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n durmas\u0131 ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin %6,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi de ekleniyor.\n\nFaiz piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu tablo, getiri e\u011frisinin (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki tahvil faizlerinin grafi\u011fi) daha dikle\u015fmesine i\u015faret ediyor. Kanada Bankalar Birli\u011fi vadeli faiz kontratlar\u0131 olan BAX vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine opsiyonlarla (gelecekte belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7lar) BoC\u2019nin %1,75\u2019lik mevcut politika faizini piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha uzun s\u00fcre korumak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 senaryosuna pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. E\u011frinin k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sm\u0131 (k\u0131sa vadeli faizler) daha \u201c\u00e7apal\u0131\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken, uzun vadeli k\u0131s\u0131m kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyona daha hassas kal\u0131yor.\n\n2025\u2019te USD\/CAD\u2019nin y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi, bug\u00fcn de ABD lehine olan faiz ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme farklar\u0131 sayesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Fed fonlama faizi %3,00 iken BoC %1,75\u2019te; bu da ABD dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 k\u00e2rl\u0131 k\u0131lan \u201ccarry\u201dyi (faiz fark\u0131ndan elde edilen getiri) y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Kanada dolar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 ek zay\u0131flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma (hedge) yap\u0131labilir veya \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda 1,4000\u2019e y\u00f6nelim senaryosu de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l an\u0131lan Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi beklenildi\u011fi kadar t\u0131rmanmasa da petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek bir taban olu\u015fmas\u0131na katk\u0131 verdi; WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) art\u0131k varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 seyrediyor. Bu durum, \u201cloonie\u201d (Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n piyasa lakab\u0131) i\u00e7in ABD dolar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor; bu da Euro veya Yen gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 CAD k\u0131sa (sat\u0131\u015f) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ortam, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flasa bile \u00e7apraz kurlarda (USD i\u00e7ermeyen pariteler) CAD\u2019in g\u00f6rece daha iyi performans\u0131na y\u00f6nelik t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn stratejilerini destekliyor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BoC faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit tuttu, y\u00f6nlendirmeyi kald\u0131rd\u0131: veri zay\u0131f, b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski a\u015fa\u011f\u0131, enflasyon yukar\u0131. TD, gev\u015feme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve stagflasyon uyar\u0131yor; \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrerse USD\/CAD y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30645","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30645"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30645\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30645"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30645"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30645"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}