{"id":30636,"date":"2026-03-18T18:07:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T18:07:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/eur-jpy-18350-civarinda-yatay-seyretti-yatirimcilar-ecb-ve-boj-kararlari-oncesinde-temkinli-kaldi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T18:07:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T18:07:59","slug":"eur-jpy-18350-civarinda-yatay-seyretti-yatirimcilar-ecb-ve-boj-kararlari-oncesinde-temkinli-kaldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/eur-jpy-18350-civarinda-yatay-seyretti-yatirimcilar-ecb-ve-boj-kararlari-oncesinde-temkinli-kaldi\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/JPY 183,50 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ECB ve BoJ kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde temkinli kald\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/JPY \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 183,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve fazla de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) faiz kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde i\u015flemler temkinliydi. \n\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verileri \u015eubat\u2019ta art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP: \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma i\u00e7in standartla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) Ocak\u2019taki %0,6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ayl\u0131k bazda %0,6 artt\u0131 ve ilk tahminlerin biraz alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \n\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi Enflasyonu ve Para Politikas\u0131 Oda\u011f\u0131<\/h3> \nY\u0131ll\u0131k HICP enflasyonu %1,9 oldu; Ocak\u2019taki %1,7\u2019ye g\u00f6re y\u00fckseldi (Ocak, 16 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesiydi). \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) ayl\u0131k %0,8 artarken y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \n\nECB\u2019nin mevduat faizini (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 fazla paraya uygulanan faiz) %2\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan i\u015flemler) Temmuz\u2019a kadar art\u0131\u015f ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar ek bir ad\u0131m ihtimalini fiyatl\u0131yor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n bir\u00e7ok ekonomist daha uzun bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d d\u00f6nemi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \n\nBoJ\u2019nin politika faizini %0,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Japonya\u2019daki enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve \u00fclkenin enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. \n\nPiyasalar BoJ\u2019nin Nisan gibi erken bir tarihte faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi ihtimalini fiyatl\u0131yor. ECB ve BoJ beklentileri y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in EUR\/JPY k\u0131sa vadede yatay seyrini (konsolidasyon: dar bantta dalgalanma) korudu. \n\n

Konsolidasyondan Yeni Bir D\u00f6neme<\/h3> \n2025\u2019in bu d\u00f6nemine geri gidersek, ECB faizi %2\u2019de, BoJ %0,75\u2019teyken EUR\/JPY\u2019de dar bir bant analiz ediyorduk. Piyasa temkinliydi; gelecekteki ad\u0131mlar\u0131 bekliyor ancak 183,50 civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yordu. Bu sakin bekleyi\u015f d\u00f6nemi art\u0131k geride kald\u0131. \n\nECB\u2019nin mevduat faizi art\u0131k %3,25 seviyesinde. 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru yap\u0131lan faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 (enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in gerekli g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n \u201cflash\u201d (\u00f6nc\u00fc\/ilk) tahminine g\u00f6re 2026 \u015eubat\u2019ta man\u015fet HICP enflasyonu %2,5. Bu seviye, ECB\u2019nin faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde net bir sinyal vermesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Daha y\u00fcksek faizin s\u00fcrmesi euroya destek veriyor. \n\nBoJ taraf\u0131nda da normalle\u015fme (ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz d\u00f6neminden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) somutla\u015ft\u0131 ve politika faizi %1,0\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. 2026 ilkbahar\u0131ndaki \u201cshunto\u201d \u00fccret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri (Japonya\u2019da toplu \u00fccret pazarl\u0131klar\u0131) ortalama %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde maa\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. \u015eubat\u2019ta Tokyo \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (Tokyo\u2019da \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen, oynak kalemlerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon) %2,2 oldu. BoJ art\u0131k sadece s\u00f6ylemde de\u011fil, ad\u0131m atarak da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan bir \u00e7izgide; bu da yen i\u00e7in iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk (hem de\u011fer kazanma hem de\u011fer kaybetme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131) yarat\u0131yor. \n\nHer iki merkez bankas\u0131 da kriz d\u00f6nemi \u201cdip\u201d seviyelerinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen dalgalanma) 2025 ba\u015f\u0131na k\u0131yasla belirgin artt\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (derivatives: fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerinden oynakl\u0131k al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz veriler sert hareketleri tetikleyebilir. EUR\/JPY\u2019de uzun straddle (fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z, b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejisi) 192,00-196,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamada etkili olabilir. \n\nFaiz fark\u0131 (interest rate differential: iki para biriminin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) h\u00e2l\u00e2 geni\u015f olsa da art\u0131k daha hareketli. Sadece \u201ccarry trade\u201d (faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck para birimiyle bor\u00e7lan\u0131p faizi y\u00fcksek olana yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131mak yerine, forward rate agreement\/FRA (ileride uygulanacak faizi bug\u00fcn sabitleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullanarak ECB ile BoJ politikalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fine dair daha hedefli pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, BoJ\u2019nin olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n ECB\u2019nin y\u00fcksek faizi koruma kapasitesini a\u015f\u0131p a\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131na daha net oynama imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EUR\/JPY 183,50\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; g\u00f6zler ECB-BoJ faiz kararlar\u0131nda. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu toparlan\u0131rken piyasa BoJ\u2019de erken art\u0131\u015f, ECB\u2019de bekle-g\u00f6r fiyatl\u0131yor; volatilite ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30636","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30636","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30636"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30636\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}