{"id":30635,"date":"2026-03-18T18:07:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T18:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/yu-orta-dogudaki-catismaya-ragmen-em-carry-tradeleri-direncli-su-anda-yalnizca-inr-ve-ron-dusuk-pozisyonlu-kaliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T18:07:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T18:07:13","slug":"yu-orta-dogudaki-catismaya-ragmen-em-carry-tradeleri-direncli-su-anda-yalnizca-inr-ve-ron-dusuk-pozisyonlu-kaliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/yu-orta-dogudaki-catismaya-ragmen-em-carry-tradeleri-direncli-su-anda-yalnizca-inr-ve-ron-dusuk-pozisyonlu-kaliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Yu: Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ra\u011fmen EM carry trade\u2019leri diren\u00e7li; \u015fu anda yaln\u0131zca INR ve RON d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck pozisyonlu kal\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ra\u011fmen geli\u015fen \u00fclke (EM) d\u00f6vizlerinde *carry trade* i\u015flemleri diren\u00e7li kald\u0131. Yeterli veri bulunan 12 y\u00fcksek getirili EM para birimi i\u00e7inde \u015fu anda yaln\u0131zca INR ve RON \u201cyeterince tutulmayan\u201d (piyasada pozisyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalan, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n az ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131) kategorisinde.\n\nCarry performans\u0131na en b\u00fcy\u00fck destek olarak \u201creel faiz\u201d g\u00f6steriliyor. *Reel faiz*, faizin enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f h\u00e2lidir; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc cinsinden kazanc\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131r. K\u00fcresel enflasyonun y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, bir\u00e7ok EM merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n arz \u015foku (\u00f6zellikle enerji gibi maliyetleri art\u0131ran ani d\u0131\u015f \u015fok) d\u00f6neminde, son d\u00f6nemde kazand\u0131klar\u0131 \u201cpolitika g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi\u201d (piyasalar\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadele iradesine inanmas\u0131) nedeniyle sert faiz indirimlerinden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nBir di\u011fer unsur da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimlerine diren\u00e7 g\u00f6sterebilmesi. Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc karar\u0131 \u00f6rnek veriliyor; IDR\u2019nin, INR ve RON\u2019a kat\u0131l\u0131p \u201cyeterince tutulmayan\u201d b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7me riski en y\u00fcksek para birimi oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.\n\nBank Indonesia karar\u0131n\u0131 \u201cd\u0131\u015f dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme\u201d \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde sundu. Politika dayana\u011f\u0131 olarak kurun istikrar\u0131 i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla kuru dengelemesi) ve yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekmeyi (yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n tahvil\/hisse gibi menkul k\u0131ymet al\u0131m\u0131) vurgulad\u0131.\n\n\u00c7o\u011fu EM merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n benzer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m izlemesi bekleniyor ve y\u00fcksek getirili para birimlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131nda h\u00e2l\u00e2 net al\u0131m var. TRY, \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek *nominal faiz* (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f, ilan edilen faiz oran\u0131) olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bu durum, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrerse s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131n (devletin fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 destek\/indirim) b\u00fct\u00e7eye maliyeti ve maliye politikas\u0131 (kamu harcamalar\u0131-gelirleri) kaynakl\u0131 endi\u015felerle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.\n\nMetin ayr\u0131ca, enerji fiyatlar\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli m\u00fcdahaleye piyasan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tolerans\u0131 oldu\u011funu not ediyor. Bunu, geli\u015fen ve \u201cfrontier\u201d (likiditesi ve piyasa derinli\u011fi daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck) ekonomilerde kemer s\u0131kma (harcama kesintisi\/vergilerle b\u00fct\u00e7e toparlama) veya karneleme (t\u00fcketimi idari olarak s\u0131n\u0131rlama) ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jeopolitik gerilim EM carry trade\u2019i bozmad\u0131: 12 y\u00fcksek getirili para biriminde yaln\u0131z INR ve RON zay\u0131f pozisyonlu. Reel faiz ve Fed\u2019in indirime direnci destek. IDR riskli; TRY sat\u0131\u015fta.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30635"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30635\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}