{"id":30634,"date":"2026-03-18T18:06:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T18:06:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-ingilterede-istihdamin-zayiflamasini-issizligin-53e-yukselmesini-ve-ucret-artislarinin-ivme-kaybetmesini-bekliyor-boenin-gevseme-egiliminin-surmesi-ongorul\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T18:06:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T18:06:27","slug":"td-securities-ingilterede-istihdamin-zayiflamasini-issizligin-53e-yukselmesini-ve-ucret-artislarinin-ivme-kaybetmesini-bekliyor-boenin-gevseme-egiliminin-surmesi-ongorul","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-ingilterede-istihdamin-zayiflamasini-issizligin-53e-yukselmesini-ve-ucret-artislarinin-ivme-kaybetmesini-bekliyor-boenin-gevseme-egiliminin-surmesi-ongorul\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de istihdam\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131, i\u015fsizli\u011fin %5,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesini ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ivme kaybetmesini bekliyor; BoE\u2019nin gev\u015feme e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities, \u0130ngiltere i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n (i\u015f piyasas\u0131n\u0131n durumu) daha da yumu\u015famas\u0131n\u0131, istihdam\u0131n (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n) d\u00fc\u015fmesini ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Kurum, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 %5,3 seviyesinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu oran kendi COVID d\u00f6nemindeki zirve tahminiyle ayn\u0131.\n\n\u015eirket, istihdamdaki \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi -20 bin olarak tahmin ediyor. Piyasa beklentisi 14 bin, \u00f6nceki veri 52 bindi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 i\u00e7in tahmin %5,3; piyasa %5,2, \u00f6nceki veri %5,2.\n\n<h3>\u00dccret Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n\u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n (maa\u015flardaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin) yava\u015flamas\u0131, ancak g\u00f6stergeler genelinde y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Man\u015fet ortalama haftal\u0131k kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n (AWE: \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n haftal\u0131k ortalama geliri) %3,8 (3m\/y: son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fimi) olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasa %3,9, \u00f6nceki veri %4,2.\n\n\u0130kramiyeler hari\u00e7 ortalama haftal\u0131k kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n %4,0 (3m\/y) olmas\u0131, piyasa ile ayn\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki %4,2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r ikramiyeler hari\u00e7 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n %3,5 (3m\/y) olmas\u0131 bekleniyor; piyasa ile ayn\u0131, \u00f6nceki %3,4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde.\n\nNot, daha zay\u0131f i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerini, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) politika gev\u015fetmesini (faiz indirimi veya daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fi) destekleyen ko\u015fullarla ili\u015fkilendiriyor. Ayr\u0131ca k\u0131sa vadede oda\u011f\u0131n, yaln\u0131zca \u0130ngiltere verileri de\u011fil, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon etkilerine (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskine) kayabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.\n\n<h3>Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u0130\u00e7in Piyasa Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\nBu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sert bir yumu\u015fama tam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi (ONS) verilerine g\u00f6re \u0130ngiltere\u2019de i\u015fsizlik, Ocak 2026\u2019ya kadarki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda daha diren\u00e7li bir seviye olan %4,5\u2019te kald\u0131. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7, BoE\u2019ye bu y\u0131l \u015fu ana kadar faizleri sabit tutmak i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e verdi. Bu da 2025\u2019te beklenenden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel ekonomik tabloya i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131n \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi y\u00fcksek kald\u0131; ikramiyeler hari\u00e7 ortalama haftal\u0131k kazan\u00e7lar \u015fu anda %3,9. Bu \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k\u201d (kolay gerilemeyen y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f), \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyonun) h\u00e2l\u00e2 %2,8 civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle birlikte, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temkinli duru\u015funu a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. 2025\u2019te g\u00fcndemde olan \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik enflasyon endi\u015feleri ise kal\u0131c\u0131 bir enerji fiyat \u015fokuna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi enstr\u00fcmanlar) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu tablo, yak\u0131n zamanda h\u0131zl\u0131 ve derin faiz indirimleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n BoE\u2019nin yaz toplant\u0131lar\u0131na dair daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi yanl\u0131s\u0131) beklentilerine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak bir f\u0131rsat olabilir. Gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn (faiz indirimlerinin) daha ge\u00e7 ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde SONIA vadeli i\u015flemleriyle (Sterlin gecelik faizine dayal\u0131 vadeli kontratlar) pozisyon almak, \u00f6rne\u011fin May\u0131s yerine 2026 3. \u00e7eyrek, mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m.\n\nSterlin varl\u0131klar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) ana tema olmaya devam ediyor; bu da opsiyon stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130\u015f piyasas\u0131n\u0131n diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n \u00fccret bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131, BoE\u2019nin politika hatas\u0131 riskini (yanl\u0131\u015f zamanda yanl\u0131\u015f faiz karar\u0131) kayda de\u011fer k\u0131l\u0131yor. Gelecek Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (MPC) toplant\u0131lar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda oynakl\u0131kta olas\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131, FTSE 100 \u00fczerinde straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte alma; b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketine oynama) almak etkili bir strateji olabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BoE\u2019de \u201cerken faiz indirimi\u201d hayali s\u00f6n\u00fcyor: TD, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de istihdam -20 bin, i\u015fsizlik %5,3 ve \u00fccretlerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yava\u015flama bekliyor; piyasa, SONIA ve sterlinde oynakl\u0131\u011fa odaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30634"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30634\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}