{"id":30615,"date":"2026-03-18T13:05:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T13:05:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbanktan-pfister-eur-usd-opsiyonlari-yeniden-savas-oncesi-donemdeki-kaliplara-benziyor-volatilite-ve-risk-reversal-dinamikleri-sifirlaniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T13:05:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T13:05:28","slug":"commerzbanktan-pfister-eur-usd-opsiyonlari-yeniden-savas-oncesi-donemdeki-kaliplara-benziyor-volatilite-ve-risk-reversal-dinamikleri-sifirlaniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbanktan-pfister-eur-usd-opsiyonlari-yeniden-savas-oncesi-donemdeki-kaliplara-benziyor-volatilite-ve-risk-reversal-dinamikleri-sifirlaniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019tan Pfister: EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131 yeniden sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemdeki kal\u0131plara benziyor; volatilite ve risk-reversal dinamikleri s\u0131f\u0131rlan\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019tan Michael Pfister, EUR\/USD (Euro\/Dolar) <i>opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131<\/i> (gelecekte belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) de\u011ferlendirerek, <i>z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k<\/i> (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanma) ile <i>risk reversal<\/i> (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011f\u0131n \u201cKurtulu\u015f G\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00fczene yeniden yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Pfister, nisan ay\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen kayman\u0131n yaln\u0131zca EUR\/USD\u2019de de\u011fil di\u011fer d\u00f6viz \u00e7iftlerinde de etkili oldu\u011funu, ancak di\u011fer paritelerde bu etkinin daha k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ekliyor.\n\n\u00d6nceki d\u00fczende, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma talebinin de artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Bu durum, EUR-USD risk reversal\u2019\u0131n daha negatif seviyelere inmesiyle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.\n\n<h3>Implied Volatility And Risk Reversals<\/h3>\n\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana, EUR\/USD\u2019de bu ili\u015fkinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor. Bunu, euronun ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen unsurlara ba\u011fl\u0131yor; bu da dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 <i>hedge<\/i> (riskten korunma i\u015flemi) talebini art\u0131rabiliyor.\n\nAyr\u0131ca piyasalar\u0131n, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n <i>g\u00fcvenli liman<\/i> (belirsizlikte talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) \u00f6zelli\u011fini korudu\u011fu uzun d\u00f6nemli dengeye geri d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fmesi i\u00e7in genellikle art arda \u015foklar gerekti\u011fini savunuyor.\n\nPiyasa, belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi tan\u0131d\u0131k d\u00fczene geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan bu yana EUR\/USD\u2019de z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yeniden artmas\u0131, eurodaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma talebiyle tekrar ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket ediyor. Bu, 2025\u2019te k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine bozulan eski dinami\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor.\n\nBu de\u011fi\u015fimi, euronun zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc <i>temel nedenler<\/i> (makro veriler ve ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm) besliyor. Bu ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, Almanya IFO \u0130\u015f \u0130klimi endeksinin beklenti d\u0131\u015f\u0131 89,5\u2019e geriledi\u011fini, Euro B\u00f6lgesi 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin de %0,1\u2019e indirildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Avrupa\u2019daki bu zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, euroyu elde tutmay\u0131 daha az cazip hale getiriyor.\n\n<h3>Options Market Implications<\/h3>\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD ekonomisi diren\u00e7 g\u00f6stermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve bu da dolar\u0131n \u00e7ekicili\u011fini art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u015eubat 2026\u2019ya ait son ABD enflasyon verisi %3,3 ile y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rken, bu durum yak\u0131n vadede Fed\u2019in (<i>ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131<\/i>) faiz indirimi beklentilerini azalt\u0131yor ve ABD <i>tahvil getirilerini<\/i> (faiz\/kazan\u00e7 oran\u0131) destekliyor. ABD ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131ndaki bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm fark\u0131, pariteyi y\u00f6nlendiren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir etken.\n\nOpsiyon piyasas\u0131nda bu alg\u0131 net. EUR\/USD\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k risk reversal daha negatif b\u00f6lgeye indi ve son olarak -0,60 seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu, eurodaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan <i>put<\/i>lar\u0131n (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7\/koruma sa\u011flayan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) <i>call<\/i>lara (y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan al\u0131m opsiyonu) g\u00f6re belirgin bi\u00e7imde daha pahal\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir. Nisan 2025\u2019te ba\u015flayan ilk de\u011fi\u015fimden sonra da ayn\u0131 ili\u015fki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015fti.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu tablo, ABD dolar\u0131nda devam eden ya da yeniden h\u0131zlanan g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye g\u00f6re pozisyon alman\u0131n daha makul oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunman\u0131n art\u0131k \u201cters\u201d bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, piyasan\u0131n yeniden buldu\u011fu dengeyle uyumlu oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131. Bu nedenle EUR\/USD d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden yararlanan stratejiler\u2014put almak veya <i>put spread<\/i> (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki put ile kurulan, maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) kurmak\u2014mevcut opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131 ve makro ortamla daha uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Opsiyon cephesinde eski d\u00fczen geri mi d\u00f6n\u00fcyor? Commerzbank, EUR\/USD\u2019de z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u2013risk reversal ba\u011f\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fti\u011fini, euro zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla putlar\u0131n pahaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, dolar lehine pozisyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30615\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}