{"id":30604,"date":"2026-03-18T10:03:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T10:03:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/hazine-bakani-jim-chalmers-iran-savasi-ihtimalinin-enflasyonu-025-puan-artirabilecegi-ve-gsyhyi-daha-da-dusurebilecegi-uyarisinda-bulundu\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T10:03:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T10:03:59","slug":"hazine-bakani-jim-chalmers-iran-savasi-ihtimalinin-enflasyonu-025-puan-artirabilecegi-ve-gsyhyi-daha-da-dusurebilecegi-uyarisinda-bulundu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/hazine-bakani-jim-chalmers-iran-savasi-ihtimalinin-enflasyonu-025-puan-artirabilecegi-ve-gsyhyi-daha-da-dusurebilecegi-uyarisinda-bulundu\/","title":{"rendered":"Hazine Bakan\u0131 Jim Chalmers, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin enflasyonu 0,25 puan art\u0131rabilece\u011fi ve GSYH\u2019yi daha da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu"},"content":{"rendered":"Avustralya Hazine\u2019si (Treasury), \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin iki senaryo modelledi: petrol\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131da (H1: y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 6 ay\u0131) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolarda kalmas\u0131 ya da 120 dolara y\u00fckselip \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nmesinin \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l s\u00fcrmesi. Bir hafta \u00f6nceki modele g\u00f6re g\u00fcncellenen veriler, man\u015fet enflasyona (toplam enflasyon) ilave 0,25 puan eklendi\u011fini ve GSYH (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkinin iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nK\u0131sa vadeli senaryoda man\u015fet enflasyonun zirvesinin 0,75 puan daha y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. \u00dcretimin (ekonomik faaliyet) y\u0131l ortas\u0131 civar\u0131nda %0,2 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor.\n\n

Short Term Scenario Implications<\/h3>\nUzayan senaryoda man\u015fet enflasyonun zirvesinin 1,25 puan daha y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. GSYH\u2019nin 2027\u2019de %0,6 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131 ve 2029\u2019da da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma olmayan senaryoya g\u00f6re (referans patika) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.\n\nGSYH etkisinin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla, kalan k\u0131sm\u0131 ise daha geni\u015f ekonomik etkilerle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda AUD\/USD %0,22 art\u0131da 0,7120 seviyesindeydi.\n\n2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki Hazine modeline bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, enflasyonun %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fcst\u00fcnde zirve yapaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc art\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f durumda. 2025 Aral\u0131k \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin son veriler man\u015fet enflasyonu %4,3 g\u00f6sterdi ve bu durum Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) i\u015fini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k, faiz oran\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemleri\/t\u00fcrevlerinde (faiz beklentisini fiyatlayan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) merkez bankas\u0131ndan \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015funun (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 politika e\u011filimi) fiyatlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; ayr\u0131ca bu y\u0131l ek bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riski de az\u0131msanmayacak d\u00fczeyde.\n\nPetrol\u00fcn 100 dolar oldu\u011fu k\u0131sa vadeli senaryo fiilen devrede; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Brent ham petrol, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimlerin s\u00fcrmesiyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu durum enerji piyasalar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek tuttu; Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX: petrol opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen \u201cbeklenen oynakl\u0131k\u201d g\u00f6stergesi) 12 ay\u0131n zirvesinde. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleme) almak gibi.\n\nGSYH \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etki (yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,2 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahmin edilen), art\u0131k ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck g\u00f6stergelere de yans\u0131yor. \u015eubat 2026\u2019da iki y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerileyen son i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcven anketlerinde bu bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu ortam temkin gerektiriyor: i\u00e7 pazara duyarl\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel hisselerde (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye hassas sekt\u00f6rler) \u201ck\u0131sa\u201d pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleme) ve y\u00fcksek fiyatlardan faydalanan emtia ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131nda (madencilik\/enerji gibi) \u201cuzun\u201d pozisyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\n

Market And Currency Volatility<\/h3>\nY\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 normalde Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekler; ancak k\u00fcresel riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. 2025\u2019te bu kayg\u0131lar ilk modellendi\u011finde 0,7120 seviyesinde olan AUD\/USD, \u015fimdi g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 0,6750 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorlan\u0131yor. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, paritede 1 ayl\u0131k \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %11\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not etmeli; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha sert fiyat hareketleri beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol \u015foku Avustralya\u2019y\u0131 vuruyor: Hazine, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla Brent\u2019in 100-120$ senaryolar\u0131nda enflasyon zirvesinin 0,75-1,25 puan artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, GSYH kayb\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; RBA\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fi zor, AUD oynak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30604"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30604\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}