{"id":30572,"date":"2026-03-18T04:01:34","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T04:01:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-yari-mali-tesvikin-cinin-2026-basindaki-yatirim-toparlanmasini-guclendirdigini-ve-petrol-fiyat-sokunun-etkilerini-yumusattigini-soyledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T04:01:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T04:01:34","slug":"td-securities-yari-mali-tesvikin-cinin-2026-basindaki-yatirim-toparlanmasini-guclendirdigini-ve-petrol-fiyat-sokunun-etkilerini-yumusattigini-soyledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-yari-mali-tesvikin-cinin-2026-basindaki-yatirim-toparlanmasini-guclendirdigini-ve-petrol-fiyat-sokunun-etkilerini-yumusattigini-soyledi\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities, yar\u0131 mali te\u015fvikin \u00c7in\u2019in 2026 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131m toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini ve petrol fiyat \u015fokunun etkilerini yumu\u015fatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi"},"content":{"rendered":"\u00c7in ekonomisi 2026\u2019ya olumlu ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130lk iki aya ait veriler, sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131nda (makine, ekipman ve altyap\u0131 gibi uzun vadeli varl\u0131klara yap\u0131lan harcama) toparlanmaya i\u015faret etti. Bu toparlanma, yar\u0131 maliye politikas\u0131yla (b\u00fct\u00e7e d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ama kamu destekli harcamalar ve kamuya ba\u011fl\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131n finansman\u0131) ili\u015fkilendirildi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n faaliyet, imalat ve ihracat \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kald\u0131.\n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131, \u00fcreticilerin girdi maliyetleri (ham madde ve enerji gibi \u00fcretim i\u00e7in gereken maliyetler) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risk olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131. Bu durum y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde \u00fcretimi olumsuz etkileyebilir.\n\n<h3>B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye Y\u00f6nelik Politika E\u011filimi<\/h3>\nPolitika oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlamaktan (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmaktan) \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemeye kaymas\u0131 bekleniyordu. Bu da para politikas\u0131ndan (faiz ve kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131) ziyade maliye politikas\u0131na (kamu harcamalar\u0131 ve vergiler) daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilmesi anlam\u0131na geliyordu.\n\n2026 GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la) tahmini %4,6\u2019da korundu. Petrole ba\u011fl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, bunu dengelemek i\u00e7in maliye tedbirlerine alan olmas\u0131 bekleniyordu.\n\nFinancial Times r\u00f6portaj\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, ABD\u2013\u00c7in ili\u015fkilerine dair soru i\u015faretleri yaratt\u0131. Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00c7in ziyaretini iptal etmesi ihtimali, yeniden g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri (ithalata ek vergi) ve piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) riskine ba\u011fland\u0131.\n\n\u00c7in ekonomisi, \u00f6zellikle devlet destekli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n imalat ve ihracat\u0131 canland\u0131rmas\u0131yla y\u0131la g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir giri\u015f yapt\u0131. Ocak ve \u015eubat sanayi \u00fcretimi verileri, y\u0131ll\u0131k %5,5 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek piyasa beklentisini (konsens\u00fcs tahmin) a\u015ft\u0131. Bu temel g\u00fc\u00e7, \u00c7in hisseleri i\u00e7in nispeten sa\u011flam bir zemin sa\u011flasa da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n art\u0131k fiyatlamas\u0131 gereken \u00f6nemli riskler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Piyasa Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Tetikleyen Unsurlar<\/h3>\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, artan girdi maliyetleri \u00fczerinden sanayi \u015firketlerini do\u011frudan etkiledi\u011fi i\u00e7in ba\u015fl\u0131ca endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekte teslim edilmek \u00fczere belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye 2024 sonlar\u0131ndan beri kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu da \u00fcreticilerin k\u00e2r marj\u0131 (sat\u0131\u015ftan kalan k\u00e2r oran\u0131) \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ortamda, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi i\u015fleyen \u201csatma hakk\u0131\u201d) daha anlaml\u0131 bir ara\u00e7 haline geliyor.\n\nPekin\u2019in, %4,6\u2019l\u0131k GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefini korumak i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak (krediyi zorla\u015ft\u0131rmak) yerine mali destek ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte bu yakla\u015f\u0131m 2025\u2019teki politika \u00e7izgisiyle uyumluydu; o d\u00f6nemde PBoC (\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131) zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131n\u0131 (bankalar\u0131n mevduat\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda tutma oran\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek kredi geni\u015flemesini desteklemi\u015f ve zay\u0131flayan gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne destek vermi\u015fti. Bu politika fark\u0131, yuan \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir; USD\/CNH\u2019nin y\u00fckseli\u015fine y\u00f6nelik opsiyonlar (kur y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu nedenle daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n\nAncak oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in en yak\u0131n tetikleyici, Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00c7in ziyareti karar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015fmas\u0131. \u0130ptal, ili\u015fkilerde sert bozulma sinyali verir ve daha \u00f6nce 300 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc etkileyen yeni tarifeler endi\u015fesiyle piyasalarda sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Hang Seng endeksine ba\u011fl\u0131 oynakl\u0131k ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011ferlenen \u00fcr\u00fcnler) korunmay\u0131 veya b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00c7in ETF\u2019lerinde vadesiz\/uzak kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda belirlenen fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; k\u0131sa vadeli koruma) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7in 2026\u2019ya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131: yat\u0131r\u0131m ve sanayi \u00fcretimi (%5,5) toparlan\u0131yor, %4,6 GSYH hedefi korunuyor. Ancak 95$ Brent, Trump-tarife riski ve yuan bask\u0131s\u0131 oynakl\u0131k yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30572","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30572"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30572\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30572"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30572"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30572"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}