{"id":30571,"date":"2026-03-18T02:03:24","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T02:03:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ocak-ayinda-abdnin-aylik-butce-acigi-95-milyar-dolardan-308-milyar-dolara-cikarak-derinlesti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T02:03:24","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T02:03:24","slug":"ocak-ayinda-abdnin-aylik-butce-acigi-95-milyar-dolardan-308-milyar-dolara-cikarak-derinlesti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ocak-ayinda-abdnin-aylik-butce-acigi-95-milyar-dolardan-308-milyar-dolara-cikarak-derinlesti\/","title":{"rendered":"Ocak ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin ayl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 95 milyar dolardan 308 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131karak derinle\u015fti"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019nin ayl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki -95 milyar dolardan Ocak ay\u0131nda -308 milyar dolara geriledi. Bu, ayl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nOcak verisi, \u00f6nceki -95 milyar dolarl\u0131k seviyeye k\u0131yasla a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 213 milyar dolar artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Rakamlar milyar ABD dolar\u0131 cinsinden.\n\nOcak\u2019taki -308 milyar dolarl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (kamu gelir-gider fark\u0131n\u0131n eksiye d\u00f6nmesi), \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in devletin daha fazla bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131 do\u011fdu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasan\u0131n bu yeni borcu (Hazine\u2019nin \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahvilleri) sindirmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaten g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Ge\u00e7en haftaki zay\u0131f 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili ihalesinde \u201cbid-to-cover\u201d oran\u0131 (verilen toplam teklifin sat\u0131lan tahvil tutar\u0131na oran\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 talebin zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir) sadece 2,3 oldu. Bu tablo, faiz oranlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini ve faizlerin y\u00fckselmesine oynayan opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7lar) daha cazip hale getirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nBu mali bask\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 da zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) \u015eubat raporunda %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti. Mart ba\u015f\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131ya ait tutanaklar (Fed\u2019in toplant\u0131 notlar\u0131) kurulun b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi; bu da yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n bir ay \u00f6nce fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re azalt\u0131yor. Faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 art\u0131k ana senaryo; bu da getiri e\u011frisinin (farkl\u0131 vadelerde tahvil faizlerinin seviyesi) yatay ya da ters (k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin uzun vadelerden y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131) kalmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan i\u015flemlerin iyi performans g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nDevlet harcamalar\u0131 ile temkinli Fed aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131) belirgin bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. VIX endeksi (S&#038;P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 16 civar\u0131nda seyrederken bu ortamda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda VIX vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileride belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) veya b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde opsiyonlarla oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na pozisyon almak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.\n\nHisse senedi piyasalar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle faizlere duyarl\u0131 teknoloji ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri, yeniden fiyatlamaya (beklentilere g\u00f6re de\u011ferlerin h\u0131zla ayarlanmas\u0131na) a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Y\u00fckselen iskonto oranlar\u0131 (gelecekteki nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcne indirgemede kullan\u0131lan faiz) de\u011ferleme bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, uzun vade etkisi y\u00fcksek varl\u0131klar (geliri daha \u00e7ok gelece\u011fe yay\u0131lan \u015firketler; \u201cuzun duration\u201d benzetmesi) daha fazla zarar g\u00f6rebilir. Nasdaq 100 \u00fczerinde koruyucu put (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) stratejileri, y\u00fckselen faizlerin tetikleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u015eok b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131: ABD\u2019de denge Ocak\u2019ta -308 milyar $\u2019a indi; bor\u00e7lanma art\u0131yor, tahvil talebi zay\u0131f. Enflasyon y\u00fcksek, Fed temkinli: faizler yukar\u0131, volatilite ve Nasdaq\u2019ta yeniden fiyatlama riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30571"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30571\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}