{"id":30569,"date":"2026-03-18T02:02:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T02:02:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dolarin-zayiflamasiyla-eur-usd-yukseliyor-piyasalar-fed-ve-ecbden-gelecek-politika-mesajlarini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T02:02:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T02:02:08","slug":"dolarin-zayiflamasiyla-eur-usd-yukseliyor-piyasalar-fed-ve-ecbden-gelecek-politika-mesajlarini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dolarin-zayiflamasiyla-eur-usd-yukseliyor-piyasalar-fed-ve-ecbden-gelecek-politika-mesajlarini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla EUR\/USD y\u00fckseliyor; piyasalar Fed ve ECB\u2019den gelecek politika mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmesiyle Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci g\u00fcnde y\u00fckseldi. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131ndan, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131na kayd\u0131. Parite 1,1466 civar\u0131ndaki g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan 1,1546\u2019ya yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.\n\nABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 100 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalamay\u0131nca 99,50 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Fed, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak; beklenti faizin %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fmemesi.\n\n

Fed Y\u00f6nlendirmesi Ve Piyasa Fiyatlamas\u0131<\/h3>\nPiyasalar, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyona (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) etkisine ili\u015fkin y\u00f6nlendirmesini izliyor. Y\u0131l sonuna kadar yaln\u0131zca yakla\u015f\u0131k 25 baz puan (faizde 0,25 puan) indirim fiyatlan\u0131yor; bu oran ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 50 baz puan\u0131n (0,50 puan) \u00fczerindeydi.\n\nCME FedWatch verileri, Fed\u2019in Nisan, Haziran ve Temmuz toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda faizi sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Eyl\u00fcl, yakla\u015f\u0131k %50,8 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz indirimi i\u00e7in en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihtimal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nFed\u2019in g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f Ekonomik Projeksiyon \u00d6zeti ve \u201cdot plot\u201du (Fed yetkililerinin gelecekteki faiz beklentilerini g\u00f6steren nokta grafi\u011fi) da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ECB Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc karar verecek ve \u00fc\u00e7 ana faizi (mevduat faizi, refinansman faizi, marjinal fonlama faizi) de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi bekleniyor.\n\nY\u00fcksek Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k nedeniyle Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini yava\u015flatabilir ve enflasyonu daha y\u00fcksek tutabilir. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesinde piyasalar ECB\u2019nin 2026\u2019ya kadar beklemede kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, son fiyatlama Temmuz gibi erken bir tarihte olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi Enflasyonu Ve ECB G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nECB karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verisi de yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.\n\n2025\u2019e geri bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasa ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131na ve bunun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 petrol \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n verece\u011fi tepkilere odaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fed\u2019in faiz indirim beklentileri neredeyse ortadan kalkarken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ECB\u2019den s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu durum, sonraki aylarda belirgin bir \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n\u201d (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi) zeminini haz\u0131rlad\u0131.\n\nFed, enerji maliyetlerinin besledi\u011fi kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru faizi art\u0131rmak zorunda kald\u0131 ve tepe seviye %4,50 oldu. ABD\u2019de \u015eubat 2026 enflasyon raporu, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim) %3,1\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n art\u0131k bir \u201cgev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn\u201d (faiz indirim s\u00fcrecinin) ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekiyor. D\u00fc\u015fen faizlerden yararlanan se\u00e7enekli i\u015flemler (opsiyon stratejileri) daha cazip hale geliyor; \u00f6rne\u011fin Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak.\n\nECB de 2025\u2019te, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle enerji kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 faiz art\u0131rmak zorunda kald\u0131. Ancak Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu daha inat\u00e7\u0131 kald\u0131; \u015eubat 2026 verisi %2,6. Bu, ECB\u2019nin yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirmesini Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha az olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD ile Avrupa aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7lar) kullanmas\u0131na zemin olu\u015fturabilir.\n\nFed\u2019in daha sert politikas\u0131 ve ABD ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla, 2025\u2019teki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6neminde 1,15 civar\u0131nda olan EUR\/USD paritesi \u015fu anda 1,0750 civar\u0131nda. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma), jeopolitik riskten \u00e7ok merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fiminin zamanlamas\u0131na odakland\u0131. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed\u2019in ECB\u2019ye g\u00f6re faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesiyle, euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi beklentisi i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar zay\u0131flay\u0131nca EUR\/USD iki g\u00fcnd\u00fcr y\u00fckseldi; g\u00f6zler Fed-ECB kararlar\u0131nda. Petrol \u015foku indirim beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fclerken, piyasa Powell mesaj\u0131 ve ECB\u2019de s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30569\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}