{"id":30566,"date":"2026-03-18T01:02:38","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T01:02:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/piyasalar-fomc-kararini-beklerken-dolar-endeksi-020-geriledi-10000-seviyesi-asilamayinca-9950-9960-bandina-dogru-yeniden-cekildi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T01:02:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T01:02:38","slug":"piyasalar-fomc-kararini-beklerken-dolar-endeksi-020-geriledi-10000-seviyesi-asilamayinca-9950-9960-bandina-dogru-yeniden-cekildi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/piyasalar-fomc-kararini-beklerken-dolar-endeksi-020-geriledi-10000-seviyesi-asilamayinca-9950-9960-bandina-dogru-yeniden-cekildi\/","title":{"rendered":"Piyasalar FOMC karar\u0131n\u0131 beklerken Dolar Endeksi %0,20 geriledi; 100,00 seviyesi a\u015f\u0131lamay\u0131nca 99,50\u201399,60 band\u0131na do\u011fru yeniden \u00e7ekildi"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,20 gerileyerek 99,50\u201399,60 band\u0131na indi; 100,00 seviyesini yeniden a\u015fmay\u0131 ba\u015faramad\u0131. Hareket, ge\u00e7en hafta 100,54 ile yakla\u015f\u0131k on ay\u0131n zirvesine kadar g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan geldi. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00e7ar\u015famba 18:00 GMT\u2019de yap\u0131lacak.\n\n100,50 \u00fczerindeki deneme geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve fiyat yeniden 100,00\u2019da tak\u0131ld\u0131. 100,00 civar\u0131nda iki mumlu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f formasyonu, son y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131 sonras\u0131 ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nCME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re faizde de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %94. G\u00f6zler, Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti\u2019ne (Fed\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon ve i\u015fsizlik tahminleri) ve \u201cdot plot\u201da (Fed yetkililerinin gelecek faiz patikas\u0131na dair noktasal tahmin grafi\u011fi) \u00e7evrildi. \u0130ran gerilimi ve petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretmesi sonras\u0131, \u00f6nceki medyan patika (tahminlerin ortas\u0131) 2026\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) tek indirim \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.\n\nGoldman Sachs bir sonraki faiz indirimi beklentisini eyl\u00fcle \u00e7ekti. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (piyasada politika faizine dair beklentiyi yans\u0131tan kontratlar) ise ilk indirimin en erken aral\u0131kta olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Dot plot 2026 i\u00e7in \u201cindirim yok\u201d mesaj\u0131na d\u00f6nerse DXY yeniden 100,00\u2019a y\u00f6nelmek isteyebilir; \u201cbir indirim\u201d korunursa DXY 99,00\u201399,44 band\u0131n\u0131 test edebilir.\n\nG\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flemlerde DXY 99,62 seviyesindeydi; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) \u00fczerinde, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 100,50 civar\u0131nda; destek 98,40\u2019ta, ard\u0131ndan 97,80 ve 96,85 seviyelerinde. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell da \u00e7ar\u015famba 18:30 GMT\u2019de konu\u015facak.\n\nFed karar\u0131na bir g\u00fcn kala piyasa bekle-g\u00f6r modunda. Dolar Endeksi 100 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bir sonraki ad\u0131m konusunda karars\u0131z oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir harekete zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir.\n\nAs\u0131l belirleyici, yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u201cdot plot\u201d olabilir; bu tablo bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi sinyalini tamamen ortadan kald\u0131rabilir. Benzer bir durum Haziran 2023\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Beklenenden daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) dot plot dolar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle 100,50\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimal dahilinde. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Dolar Endeksi \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.\n\nPowell b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye dair kayg\u0131l\u0131 bir ton kullan\u0131r ya da projeksiyonlarda bir faiz indirimi b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131rsa dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 olas\u0131. Bu, 99,00 seviyesinin destek olarak izlenebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu senaryoda sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak veya 100,00 civar\u0131nda vadeli i\u015flem satmak (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) daha ak\u0131ll\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.\n\nPetrol fiyat\u0131 bu tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n merkezinde. 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda Brent petrol\u00fcn birka\u00e7 haftada 90 dolar civar\u0131ndan 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 hat\u0131rlanmal\u0131; \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 mevcut durum benzer enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) korkular\u0131n\u0131 canland\u0131r\u0131yor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 petrol bask\u0131s\u0131, dolar\u0131 hem \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131k) olarak hem de daha y\u00fcksek faiz beklentileri nedeniyle destekliyor.\n\nYar\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131n\u0131n sonucu belirsiz; bu da oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fcksek olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. B\u00f6yle bir ortam, Euro gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6viz paritelerinde opsiyon straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynama) stratejisi i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli olabilir. Bu strateji, dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefler.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed \u00f6ncesi DXY 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Dot plot \u201c\u015fahinle\u015firse\u201d 100,50 k\u0131r\u0131labilir; \u201cbir indirim\u201d korunursa 99,00\u201399,44 testte. Petrol\/\u0130ran gerilimi volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor, opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30566","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30566"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30566\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30566"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}