{"id":30552,"date":"2026-03-17T22:04:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T22:04:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/scotiabank-zayif-almanya-zew-verisine-ragmen-getiri-farklari-ve-iyilesen-risk-istahinin-destegiyle-eur-usdnin-sinirli-yukselmesi-bekleniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T22:04:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T22:04:28","slug":"scotiabank-zayif-almanya-zew-verisine-ragmen-getiri-farklari-ve-iyilesen-risk-istahinin-destegiyle-eur-usdnin-sinirli-yukselmesi-bekleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/scotiabank-zayif-almanya-zew-verisine-ragmen-getiri-farklari-ve-iyilesen-risk-istahinin-destegiyle-eur-usdnin-sinirli-yukselmesi-bekleniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Scotiabank: Zay\u0131f Almanya ZEW verisine ra\u011fmen getiri farklar\u0131 ve iyile\u015fen risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle EUR\/USD\u2019nin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi ve Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc **yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f** (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften sonra al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi) sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. Hareket, Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131nda da s\u00fcrd\u00fc; parite **piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131n** (risk i\u015ftah\u0131\/ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi) deste\u011fiyle toparlanmay\u0131 geni\u015fletti.\n\nAlmanya\u2019n\u0131n ZEW yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveni anketi beklentilerin belirgin alt\u0131nda geldi. Bu anket, **sanayi \u00fcretimi** i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 12\u201318 ay sonras\u0131na i\u015faret eden **\u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge** (ekonomide gelecek e\u011filimi \u00f6nceden ima eden veri) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.\n\n

Piyasa Havas\u0131 Fiyat\u0131 Belirliyor<\/h3>\nZay\u0131f ZEW verisine ra\u011fmen EUR\/USD\u2019nin tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; ana belirleyici yine piyasa havas\u0131 oldu. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 faizlere kayd\u0131. ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi sakin seyrederken, piyasada getirilerin **a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc** hareket etme ihtimali (tahvil faizinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi) konu\u015fuluyor.\n\nAlmanya\u2019da **Bund** (Almanya devlet tahvili) ZEW verisi sonras\u0131 hareketlendi. Ayr\u0131ca Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc **\u201changing man doji\u201d** g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: Bu, fiyat\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde iki y\u00f6ne de gidip kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fa yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu ve \u00e7o\u011fu zaman **d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali** olarak yorumlanan bir **mum formasyonu**dur. **Getiri farklar\u0131n\u0131n** (\u00fclkelerin tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu belirtildi; bu durum euroya destek verdi.\n\nOpsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131 da temkinli bir tablo \u00e7izdi. **Risk reversal** (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu primleri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131larak piyasan\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne korunma istedi\u011fini g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) verileri, euroda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunman\u0131n daha pahal\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. K\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n, genel piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015fmeye devam edip etmemesine ba\u011fl\u0131; bu olursa EUR\/USD, son d\u00f6nemde jeopolitik risklerle ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri alabilir.\n\nEuro, Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan dolara kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131yor; hareketin iyi destek buldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu iyimserli\u011fi **temellerden** (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon, veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131) \u00e7ok piyasa havas\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar zay\u0131f ekonomik sinyalleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6rmezden geliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Almanya\u2019n\u0131n Mart ZEW yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveni 15,2 ile 20,5 beklentisinin belirgin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; buna ra\u011fmen euro g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc durdu.\n\n

Tahvil Faizleri ve Opsiyonlar Temkine \u0130\u015faret Ediyor<\/h3>\nBu hareketin ana s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisi olarak tahvil piyasalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k **Hazine tahvili faizi** yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,6 ile Almanya 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund faizinin (%2,9) olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde. Ancak piyasa, bu fark\u0131n daralmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Genel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, ABD faizlerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nmeye daha yatk\u0131n oldu\u011fu; bunun dolar\u0131n **faiz avantaj\u0131n\u0131** azalt\u0131p EUR\/USD\u2019yi destekleyebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.\n\nGeriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu toparlanma, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri alma hareketi gibi duruyor. S\u00f6z konusu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, 2025\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde jeopolitik gerginli\u011fin artmas\u0131yla h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu endi\u015feler zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a piyasa havas\u0131 toparland\u0131 ve euro kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri ald\u0131.\n\nT\u00fcrev i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, EUR\/USD\u2019nin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ya da yatay kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryolarda fayda sa\u011flayan yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin **zarar-kesin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money)** sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p **prim** (opsiyonun pe\u015fin fiyat\u0131) toplamak gibi. Ancak temkin gerekiyor: Risk reversal verileri, eurodaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin bir ek prim \u00f6dendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da k\u0131sa vadeli hava olumlu olsa bile, b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular\u0131n olas\u0131 bir ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 **hedge** (riski azaltmak i\u00e7in koruma i\u015flemi) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131yor.\n

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Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD, zay\u0131f Almanya ZEW verisine ra\u011fmen risk i\u015ftah\u0131yla y\u00fckseli\u015fini koruyor. Odak tahvil faizlerinde: ABD-Almanya 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131 euroyu destekleyebilir. Opsiyonlar temkinli seyrediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30552","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30552"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30552\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}