{"id":30550,"date":"2026-03-17T22:03:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T22:03:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-ticaret-kazanimlari-ve-emeklilik-fonlarinin-kur-riskinden-korunmasinin-jeopolitik-riskleri-golgede-birakmasiyla-bolunmus-rba-oylamasi-sonrasi-audnin-guclenmesini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T22:03:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T22:03:03","slug":"td-securities-ticaret-kazanimlari-ve-emeklilik-fonlarinin-kur-riskinden-korunmasinin-jeopolitik-riskleri-golgede-birakmasiyla-bolunmus-rba-oylamasi-sonrasi-audnin-guclenmesini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-ticaret-kazanimlari-ve-emeklilik-fonlarinin-kur-riskinden-korunmasinin-jeopolitik-riskleri-golgede-birakmasiyla-bolunmus-rba-oylamasi-sonrasi-audnin-guclenmesini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities, ticaret kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 ve emeklilik fonlar\u0131n\u0131n kur riskinden korunmas\u0131n\u0131n jeopolitik riskleri g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla, b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f RBA oylamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 AUD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities stratejistleri Prashant Newnaha ve Alex Loo, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) karar\u0131n\u0131n 5\u2019e 4 gibi k\u0131l pay\u0131 oy fark\u0131yla \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (AUD) di\u011fer G10 para birimlerinden daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Faiz deste\u011finin, kurulun 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bps; faizde y\u00fczde 0,25\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 onaylamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fini belirtiyorlar.\n\nAUD\u2019deki g\u00fcc\u00fc, \u201cticaret hadlerinde\u201d (d\u0131\u015f sat\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f al\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na oran\u0131; \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaretten elde etti\u011fi kazanc\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) olumlu bir \u015foka ve Avustralyal\u0131 emeklilik fonlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz riskine kar\u015f\u0131 daha fazla \u201ckorunma\u201d (hedging; kur dalgalanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonu dengeleme) yapmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yorlar. Ayr\u0131ca Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n Katar ve ABD\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n 3. b\u00fcy\u00fck LNG \u00fcreticisi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. (LNG: s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz; ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in so\u011futularak s\u0131v\u0131 hale getirilen do\u011fal gaz.)\n\n

Makro Zeminde De\u011fi\u015fim<\/h3>\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi nedeniyle ABD Dolar\u0131 daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse, AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,69 civar\u0131nda al\u0131c\u0131 bulmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar. \u00c7aprazlarda (crosses; USD d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 fiyat\u0131) ise, ticaret hadleri etkisi ve \u00c7in\u2019e k\u0131yasla ABD\u2019ye maruz kalma farklar\u0131 nedeniyle AUD\/CAD\u2019in gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar.\n\nYaz\u0131da, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.\n\n2025\u2019te AUD i\u00e7in olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze d\u00f6n\u00fcp bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, Mart 2026 itibar\u0131yla tablo net \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti. Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131rma d\u00f6neminden uzakla\u015ft\u0131 ve verilere ba\u011fl\u0131 bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d sinyali veriyor. Bu durum, para birimine destek veren ana unsurlardan birini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l inceledi\u011fimiz 5\u2019e 4 oyla gelen art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 bir duru\u015f.\n\nLNG ihracat\u0131ndan gelen olumlu ticaret hadleri \u015foku da belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131. Avustralya \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun son verileri, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde LNG ihracat de\u011ferinin kuzey yar\u0131mk\u00fcrede \u0131l\u0131man ge\u00e7en k\u0131\u015f nedeniyle y\u00fczde 4,2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da 2025\u2019te g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnen temel hik\u00e2yeyi zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.\n\n

AUD \u0130\u00e7in \u0130\u015flem Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\nAUD\/USD \u015fu anda 0,6750 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, daha \u00f6nce g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 0,6900 seviyesi art\u0131k diren\u00e7 konumuna ge\u00e7ti. \u201cT\u00fcrev\u201d (derivative; de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa, \u00f6rne\u011fin kur\/emtia\/faize ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar, AUD\/USD\u2019de \u201cput spread\u201d (belirli vadede kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden yararlanan, iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonunun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 strateji) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; hedef 0,6600 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareket olabilir. Bu strateji riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar ve \u201cgetiri farklar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d (yield differentials; iki \u00fclkenin faiz\/bono getirisi aras\u0131ndaki fark) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc desteklemesine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131r.\n\nAvustralyal\u0131 emeklilik fonlar\u0131ndan gelen yap\u0131sal kur korunma ak\u0131mlar\u0131 (hedging flows; kur riskine kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fczenli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m kaynakl\u0131 ak\u0131\u015flar) AUD\u2019ye bir miktar talep sa\u011flasa da, de\u011fi\u015fen faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc dengelemekte yetersiz kal\u0131yor. Bu ak\u0131mlar kal\u0131c\u0131 bir trend yerine k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri yarat\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bunlar\u0131, bir sonraki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirebilir.\n\n2025\u2019te AUD\/CAD\u2019in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczeltme yapaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00c7in\u2019in \u015eubat 2026 imalat PMI verisi (Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index; sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi, 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralma anlam\u0131na gelir) 49,8 ile daralma b\u00f6lgesinde kal\u0131yor ve Avustralya Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD ekonomisinin diren\u00e7li g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekliyor. AUD\/CAD \u201cvadeli i\u015flem\u201d (futures; ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) satmak veya opsiyonlarla k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc (short; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle) pozisyon almak h\u00e2l\u00e2 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RBA\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131l pay\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 AUD i\u00e7in tablo tersine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor: faiz deste\u011fi eriyor, LNG kaynakl\u0131 ticaret hadleri zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. AUD\/USD\u2019de 0,69 diren\u00e7; 0,66 hedefli put spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. AUD\/CAD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi korunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30550"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30550\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}