{"id":30549,"date":"2026-03-17T22:02:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T22:02:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/inging-stratejisti-ewa-manthey-alba-ve-qatalumdaki-kesintilerin-korfez-aluminyum-arzini-sikilastirarak-bolgesel-uretimi-etkiledigini-soyluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T22:02:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T22:02:08","slug":"inging-stratejisti-ewa-manthey-alba-ve-qatalumdaki-kesintilerin-korfez-aluminyum-arzini-sikilastirarak-bolgesel-uretimi-etkiledigini-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/inging-stratejisti-ewa-manthey-alba-ve-qatalumdaki-kesintilerin-korfez-aluminyum-arzini-sikilastirarak-bolgesel-uretimi-etkiledigini-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"INGING stratejisti Ewa Manthey, Alba ve Qatalum\u2019daki kesintilerin K\u00f6rfez al\u00fcminyum arz\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak b\u00f6lgesel \u00fcretimi etkiledi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) \u00fcretim kesintileri ve Qatalum\u2019un operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131, al\u00fcminyum arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc daraltt\u0131. Alba, y\u0131ll\u0131k 1,6 milyon tonluk kapasitesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %19\u2019una denk gelen 1\u20133 numaral\u0131 reduksiyon (elektrolizle al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretim) hatlar\u0131n\u0131 kademeli olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor; Qatalum ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 kapasiteyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.\n\nK\u00f6rfez\u2019deki eritme tesisleri (smelter; al\u00fcminyum \u00fcretim fabrikas\u0131) deniz yoluyla d\u00fczenli al\u00fcmina (al\u00fcminyum oksit; boksitten \u00fcretilen ve al\u00fcminyum yap\u0131m\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan ara madde) sevkiyat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ve sadece 3\u20134 haftal\u0131k stok tutuyor. K\u00f6rfez, k\u00fcresel al\u00fcmina \u00fcretiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %3\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc ve boksitin (al\u00fcminyumun ana cevheri) yakla\u015f\u0131k %1\u2019ini \u00fcretiyor; bu da ithal ham maddeye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\n\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftas\u0131na girdi; bu da normal stok tamponunun (beklenmedik aksamalara kar\u015f\u0131 elde tutulan ek stok) \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015f kesintiye u\u011framaya devam ederse, stoklar azald\u0131k\u00e7a 1\u20132 hafta i\u00e7inde daha fazla \u00fcretim kesintisi ba\u015flayabilir.\n\nING, al\u00fcminyum senaryolar\u0131n\u0131 petrol piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin son \u00e7er\u00e7evesiyle uyumlu olacak \u015fekilde g\u00fcncelledi ve biraz daha s\u0131k\u0131 denge varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 yapt\u0131. \u015eiddetli aksama senaryosunda fiyatlar\u0131n 4.000 dolar\/tonun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, temel senaryo Mart\u2019ta ciddi deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aksamalar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fan\u0131p ikinci \u00e7eyrek boyunca kademeli olarak hafiflemesini ve Alba ile Qatalum\u2019da ilave k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 varsay\u0131yor.\n\nLME (Londra Metal Borsas\u0131) al\u00fcminyum fiyatlar\u0131 \u015fimdiden tepki verdi; son iki haftada %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek ton ba\u015f\u0131na 2.850 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ancak tablo k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015firse g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek seviyelere k\u0131yasla h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Piyasa, uzun s\u00fcrecek ve a\u011f\u0131r bir kesintinin (prolonged outage; \u00fcretim\/tedarikte uzun s\u00fcreli duru\u015f) fiyatlar\u0131 4.000 dolar\/tonun \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fi riskini tam olarak fiyatlam\u0131\u015f de\u011fil.\n\nBu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, olas\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in vadeli i\u015flemlerle (futures; ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) uzun pozisyon (long; fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) almay\u0131 veya al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Nisan ve May\u0131s vadeli \u00fcr\u00fcnler \u00f6zellikle kritik; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc stoklar\u0131n t\u00fckenmesinin beklendi\u011fi d\u00f6nemi kaps\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (volatility; fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) ana tetikleyicisi olacak.\n\nAncak temel senaryoda, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aksamalar\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrek boyunca azalmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131. Diplomatik ilerleme sa\u011flan\u0131r ve deniz yollar\u0131 beklenenden \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rsa, fiyatlar \u00fczerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 h\u0131zla zay\u0131flar. Bu, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonun ana riski oldu\u011fundan, jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrekli izlenmesi gerekir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski al\u00fcminyumda alarm zillerini \u00e7ald\u0131rd\u0131: Alba %19\u2019luk kapasiteyi k\u0131s\u0131yor, Qatalum %60\u2019ta. 3\u20134 haftal\u0131k stok h\u0131zla eriyor; LME %8 y\u00fckseldi, aksama s\u00fcrerse 4.000$\/ton g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30549","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30549"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30549\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30549"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30549"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30549"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}