{"id":30546,"date":"2026-03-17T20:12:44","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:12:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/scotiabank-stratejistleri-usd-cad-yatay-bandini-koruyor-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-guc-ve-dar-getiri-farklari-kanada-dolarini-destekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T20:12:44","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:12:44","slug":"scotiabank-stratejistleri-usd-cad-yatay-bandini-koruyor-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-guc-ve-dar-getiri-farklari-kanada-dolarini-destekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/scotiabank-stratejistleri-usd-cad-yatay-bandini-koruyor-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-guc-ve-dar-getiri-farklari-kanada-dolarini-destekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Scotiabank stratejistleri: USD\/CAD yatay band\u0131n\u0131 koruyor; petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7 ve dar getiri farklar\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Scotiabank, Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Kuzey Amerika i\u015flemlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yatay seyretti\u011fini, \u00e7apraz kurlarda (USD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki paritelerde) ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. Deste\u011fin, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve dar getiri farklar\u0131yla (iki \u00fclkenin tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131) ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtilirken, USD\/CAD paritesinde 1,37 \u00fczerinin diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ifade edildi.\n\nBanka, USD\/CAD i\u00e7in \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201d (ekonomik temellere g\u00f6re olmas\u0131 beklenen seviye) tahminini 1,34\u2019\u00fcn orta band\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, spot (anl\u0131k) kurun 1,37 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu belirtti; bu da CAD\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli (ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferine g\u00f6re zay\u0131f) oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Kanada\u2019dan veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, yaln\u0131zca mevcut konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; veriler \u015eubat\u2019ta daralman\u0131n (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn) h\u0131z kesti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.\n\nPiyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ve Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) toplant\u0131lar\u0131 var. BoC\u2019den \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d (ne s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ne gev\u015feme sinyali) bir mesaj, Fed\u2019den ise \u201ctemkinli g\u00fcvercinlik\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yerine ileride indirim ihtimalini daha fazla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan ton) bekleniyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde momentuma (fiyat\u0131n hareket g\u00fcc\u00fcne) \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d denirken, RSI\u2019\u0131n (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131p yakla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) 50\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131.\n\nFiyat hareketi 1,37 \u00fczerinin diren\u00e7, 1,35\u2019in hemen alt\u0131n\u0131n ise taban (deste\u011fin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi seviye) oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131; trendi izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r) 1,3697 seviyesinde. Yak\u0131n vadeli bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 (kurun s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 alan) 1,3650\u20131,3720 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nUSD\/CAD paritesinin 1,37 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, bunun da 1,34\u2019\u00fcn orta band\u0131ndaki temel \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201d tahminine g\u00f6re pahal\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Fiyat\u0131n 1,3650\u20131,3720 gibi dar bir aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131, yukar\u0131da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 oldu\u011funu do\u011fruluyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, piyasan\u0131n bir sonraki belirgin hareket i\u00e7in net bir kataliz\u00f6r (fiyat\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7irecek geli\u015fme) bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nKanada dolar\u0131na destek, WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yla art\u0131yor; bu, Kanada ekonomisi i\u00e7in olumlu. ABD ve Kanada 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131 da olduk\u00e7a dar kald\u0131; son d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k 35 baz puan (bp: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 35 bp = %0,35) seviyesinde. Bu durum, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren \u00f6nemli kanallardan birini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu fakt\u00f6rler, paritenin zamanla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.\n\nBu istikrarl\u0131 bant i\u00e7inde, opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 satmak (opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 satarak prim geliri hedeflemek) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 1,3720 \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ve 1,3650 alt\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) satarak \u201ciron condor\u201d (dar bantta kalma beklentisiyle iki taraftan prim toplayan, risk\/\u00f6d\u00fcl\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyon stratejisi) kurulabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Bu pozisyon, parite \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi\/sonras\u0131 bant i\u00e7inde kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.\n\n2025 sonuna d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hem Fed\u2019in hem BoC\u2019nin enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in faizleri sabit tuttu\u011fu hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n \u015eubat T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7 ile y\u00f6netilebilir g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi, BoC\u2019ye n\u00f6tr duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme alan\u0131 veriyor. Fed\u2019den bu hafta gelebilecek temkinli g\u00fcvercin bir tonun, pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itebilecek tetikleyici olabilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>G\u00f6zler Fed\u2013BoC\u2019de: Scotiabank\u2019a g\u00f6re USD\/CAD 1,37\u2019de diren\u00e7le s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131, \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201d 1,34 orta band\u0131. Petrol 85$+ CAD\u2019i destekliyor; 1,3650\u20131,3720 band\u0131nda iron condor \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30546","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30546"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30546\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30546"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30546"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30546"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}