{"id":30545,"date":"2026-03-17T20:12:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-artan-abd-2-yillik-tahvil-getirilerinin-makro-kosullari-degistirmesiyle-altinin-politika-kaynakli-ters-ruzgarlarla-karsi-karsiya-oldugu-uyarisinda-bulundu\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T20:12:00","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:12:00","slug":"td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-artan-abd-2-yillik-tahvil-getirilerinin-makro-kosullari-degistirmesiyle-altinin-politika-kaynakli-ters-ruzgarlarla-karsi-karsiya-oldugu-uyarisinda-bulundu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-artan-abd-2-yillik-tahvil-getirilerinin-makro-kosullari-degistirmesiyle-altinin-politika-kaynakli-ters-ruzgarlarla-karsi-karsiya-oldugu-uyarisinda-bulundu\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities\u2019ten Daniel Ghali, artan ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirilerinin makro ko\u015fullar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmesiyle alt\u0131n\u0131n politika kaynakl\u0131 ters r\u00fczg\u00e2rlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu"},"content":{"rendered":"ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizleri \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hareket, **stagflasyon** (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131f seyrederken enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) riski alt\u0131nda ABD para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in alt\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla etkilenece\u011fi belirtiliyor.\n\n**Paran\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131** (para biriminin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015fmesi) temas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 pozisyonlar, 13F bildirimlerine (ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131m kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n hangi varl\u0131klar\u0131 tuttu\u011funu g\u00f6steren resmi raporlar) g\u00f6re kalabal\u0131k hale geldi. Fiziki alt\u0131nla desteklenen (fonun kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kasada ger\u00e7ek alt\u0131n tutulan) en pop\u00fcler alt\u0131n ETF\u2019si, kurumlar taraf\u0131ndan tarihte en \u00e7ok tutulan ETF seviyesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %67\u2019si kadar tutuluyor.\n\n

Alt\u0131n \u0130\u00e7in De\u011fi\u015fen Makro Zemin<\/h3>\nPara arz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yeniden ekonominin geneline daha yak\u0131n bir h\u0131za d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Faiz piyasalar\u0131 daha uzun bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d d\u00f6nemini fiyatl\u0131yor; beklenen **nihai faiz** (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcde ula\u015fmas\u0131 beklenen en y\u00fcksek politika faizi) seviyesine do\u011fru alan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\nFed\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair endi\u015felerin, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 onay s\u00fcrecindeki son engeller nedeniyle azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Lisa Cook davas\u0131yla ilgili ABD Y\u00fcksek Mahkemesi karar\u0131n\u0131n 2\u20133 ay i\u00e7inde gelmesi bekleniyor.\n\nMerkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 destekleyici bir unsur; ancak resmi al\u0131mlar\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131 son bir y\u0131lda geriledi. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, K\u00f6rfez ekonomileri \u00fczerindeki etkiler nedeniyle resmi sekt\u00f6r al\u0131mlar\u0131nda daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle ili\u015fkilendirildi\u011fi belirtiliyor.\n\nABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 2024 sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez %3,95\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca, alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n **f\u0131rsat maliyeti** (alt\u0131n yerine faiz getiren varl\u0131kta kal\u0131nsayd\u0131 elde edilecek getiriden vazge\u00e7me) belirgin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131yor. Bu, tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019in politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutaca\u011f\u0131 stagflasyon ortam\u0131ndan daha \u00e7ok endi\u015fe etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. **Getiri sa\u011flamayan** (faiz \u00f6demeyen) alt\u0131n i\u00e7in bu durum, cazibeyi azalt\u0131yor.\n\n

Alt\u0131nda Olas\u0131 \u0130\u015flem Konumlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\nParan\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 temal\u0131 i\u015flem \u00e7ok uzam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; son iki y\u0131lda kurumsal kat\u0131l\u0131m \u00e7ok artt\u0131. En b\u00fcy\u00fck alt\u0131n destekli ETF\u2019deki pozisyonlar y\u00fcksek kalsa da, 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyrek 13F verileri 2024 ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri ilk kez kurumlar\u0131n net azalt\u0131ma gitti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riski azaltmaya y\u00f6nelmi\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n2026\u2019n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyre\u011fine yakla\u015f\u0131rken alt\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen ana dayanaklar da zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in ge\u00e7en ayki verisi, M2 para arz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,1 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. M2 (nakit ve kolayca harcanabilir mevduatlar gibi geni\u015f para g\u00f6stergesi) bu seviyede kal\u0131nca, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta paran\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 korkusunu besleyen y\u00fcksek oranlardan uzakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca faiz piyasalar\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den \u00f6nce faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir itici g\u00fcc\u00fc azalt\u0131yor.\n\nEn istikrarl\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar bile yava\u015fl\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011fi raporu, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n net al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrektir azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki onay oturumlar\u0131ndan sonra Fed ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair siyasi risklerin azalmas\u0131yla, alt\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nemli bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d gerek\u00e7esi de zay\u0131flad\u0131.\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, i\u015flem yapanlar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ya da yatay seyre haz\u0131rlanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. B\u00fcy\u00fck alt\u0131n ETF\u2019lerinde **put opsiyonu** (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131) almak veya **put debit spread** (daha pahal\u0131 bir put al\u0131p daha ucuz bir put satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 strateji) kurmak, fiyat\u0131n 2.300 $\/ons deste\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle faydalanma yolu sunar. Daha az negatif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fte olanlar i\u00e7in, 2.450 $\/ons civar\u0131ndaki son zirvelerin \u00fczerinde **call credit spread** (bir call sat\u0131p daha yukar\u0131dan bir call alarak prim geliri hedefleyen, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 strateji) satmak, alt\u0131n\u0131n bu politika r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckselmekte zorlanmas\u0131 durumunda prim geliri sa\u011flayabilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz %3,95\u2019i a\u015farak stagflasyon fiyatl\u0131yor; alt\u0131n\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti y\u00fckseldi. 13F\u2019ler kalabal\u0131k \u201cparan\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve indirim beklentisi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30545","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30545","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30545"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30545\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30545"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30545"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30545"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}