{"id":30538,"date":"2026-03-17T20:06:41","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:06:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobanktan-jane-foley-g10-toplantilari-ve-bojun-olasi-sikilasma-adimlari-kapsaminda-yen-icin-zit-yonlu-risklere-dikkat-cekti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T20:06:41","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:06:41","slug":"rabobanktan-jane-foley-g10-toplantilari-ve-bojun-olasi-sikilasma-adimlari-kapsaminda-yen-icin-zit-yonlu-risklere-dikkat-cekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobanktan-jane-foley-g10-toplantilari-ve-bojun-olasi-sikilasma-adimlari-kapsaminda-yen-icin-zit-yonlu-risklere-dikkat-cekti\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019tan Jane Foley, G10 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 ve BoJ\u2019un olas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ad\u0131mlar\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda yen i\u00e7in z\u0131t y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere dikkat \u00e7ekti"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019un K\u0131demli D\u00f6viz (FX) Stratejisti Jane Foley, G10 merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) olas\u0131 politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Japon yenini de\u011ferlendiriyor. Rabobank, USD\/JPY tahminlerini 6 aya kadar yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelledi ve 1 ayl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde paritenin (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki kur) mevcut seviyelere yak\u0131n kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.\n\nBanka, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 belirsizlik nedeniyle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca BoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ueda \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir tonunu korusa bile USD\/JPY\u2019de olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.\n\n<h3>Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 Politika Arka Plan\u0131<\/h3>\nBoJ, Mart 2024\u2019ten bu yana para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu d\u00f6nemde politika faizini negatif b\u00f6lgeden \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131 ve QQE\u2019den (niceliksel ve niteliksel parasal geni\u015fleme: merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131yla piyasaya para vermesi) kademeli uzakla\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen, \u201creel faiz\u201d (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f faiz) \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcne g\u00f6re politika duru\u015fu h\u00e2l\u00e2 destekleyici; yani para ko\u015fullar\u0131 ekonomiyi ikinci planda da olsa desteklemeye devam ediyor.\n\nEkonomist anketleri, ithal enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen BoJ\u2019un bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda (H1) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Sendikal\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n ilkbahar \u00fccret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden (Japonya\u2019da \u201cshunto\u201d: \u015firketlerle yap\u0131lan toplu \u00fccret pazarl\u0131klar\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, t\u00fcketimi ve \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen bir unsur olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nYendeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ithalat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itiyor. Maliye Bakan\u0131 Katayama da kurdaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cs\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdahale\u201dyi (yetkililerin kur hakk\u0131nda y\u00f6nlendirme yaparak piyasay\u0131 etkilemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) art\u0131rd\u0131. Rapora g\u00f6re m\u00fcdahale endi\u015fesi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160 seviyesini yeniden denemesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Ayr\u0131ca nisan ay\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler, k\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\n\n2025\u2019in bu d\u00f6nemine d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir BoJ ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma vard\u0131. Piyasa, m\u00fcdahale riskine odaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu da USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160 seviyesine yak\u0131n bir b\u00f6lgede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yordu. Bu durum, yende iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc ve gergin bir fiyatlama ortam\u0131 olu\u015fturuyordu.\n\n<h3>T\u00fcrev \u00dcr\u00fcnler Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\nBu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve BoJ 2025\u2019te politika faizini iki kez art\u0131rarak mevcut %0,50 seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bunda kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon etkili oldu; son veriler enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 %2,3 seviyesinde seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ayr\u0131ca son \u201cshunto\u201d \u00fccret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden yine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar geldi. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi USD\/JPY 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ancak yetkililerin devreye girmesiyle parite tekrar 155 band\u0131na do\u011fru geriledi.\n\nBug\u00fcn t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) %4,25 seviyesindeki faizi ile BoJ\u2019un faizi aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck fark \u201ccarry trade\u201di (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p getirisi y\u00fcksek para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ortamda \u201cyen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 satmak\u201d (volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131: kurun sakin kalaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan opsiyon\/t\u00fcrev stratejileri) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yukar\u0131da m\u00fcdahale endi\u015fesi, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da carry trade talebi pariteyi belirli bir bantta tutuyor. Bunu USD\/JPY\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %6,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu seviye tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.\n\nOynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu sakinlikten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cshort strangle\u201d (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu satarak, kurun bantta kalmas\u0131ndan prim toplama) veya \u201ciron condor\u201d (daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 risk hedefleyen, d\u00f6rt opsiyonla kurun bir aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131na oynayan yap\u0131) gibi. Ancak risk \u015fu: Piyasa BoJ\u2019un yeniden sert ad\u0131m atma iste\u011fini hafife al\u0131yor olabilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda gelebilecek s\u00fcrpriz \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir a\u00e7\u0131klama, USD\/JPY\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ve oynakl\u0131kta s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7abilir.\n\nBu nedenle daha temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m, bu pozisyonlar\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 uzun vadeli JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) alarak \u201chedge etmek\u201dtir (korunma: olumsuz harekete kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta yapmak). B\u00f6ylece BoJ\u2019un beklenenden agresif bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne girece\u011fi sinyali gelirse yenin aniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flan\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, parite bantta kal\u0131rken prim toplamaya devam etmeyi, ayn\u0131 zamanda merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n duru\u015fundaki olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fime haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: Rabobank\u2019a g\u00f6re g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve BoJ belirsizli\u011fi USD\/JPY\u2019yi k\u0131sa vadede bantta tutabilir. M\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, carry trade talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 besliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30538","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30538"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30538\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30538"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30538"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30538"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}