{"id":30534,"date":"2026-03-17T20:03:05","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:03:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobank-stratejistleri-uyariyor-kanadanin-gsyhsi-2025-4uncu-ceyrekte-06-geriledi-yillik-bazda-07-artisa-ragmen-stoklar-asagi-cekti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T20:03:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:03:05","slug":"rabobank-stratejistleri-uyariyor-kanadanin-gsyhsi-2025-4uncu-ceyrekte-06-geriledi-yillik-bazda-07-artisa-ragmen-stoklar-asagi-cekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobank-stratejistleri-uyariyor-kanadanin-gsyhsi-2025-4uncu-ceyrekte-06-geriledi-yillik-bazda-07-artisa-ragmen-stoklar-asagi-cekti\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank stratejistleri uyar\u0131yor: Kanada\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019si 2025 4\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte %0,6 geriledi; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %0,7 art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen stoklar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti"},"content":{"rendered":"Kanada\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019si (Gayri Safi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la: ekonomide \u00fcretilen toplam mal ve hizmet de\u011feri) 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00e7eyrekten \u00e7eyre\u011fe %0,6 gerilerken, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %0,7 artt\u0131. \u00c7eyreklik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ana nedeni, \u015firketlerin stoklar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131yd\u0131; \u00f6zellikle imalat ve toptan ticarette stok erimesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\n\nStok seviyeleri (\u015firketlerin elindeki sat\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f \u00fcr\u00fcn miktar\u0131) 2020\u2019den bu yana ilk kez y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda geriledi. T\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 ve ihracat s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa destek verdi; iki kalemde de m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.\n\n<h3>\u0130ran \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve K\u0131sa Vadede GSYH Deste\u011fi<\/h3>\n\u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor. Bu durum, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n enerji ihracat\u0131n\u0131n parasal de\u011ferini art\u0131rabilir ve k\u0131sa vadede GSYH\u2019yi destekleyebilir. Ancak i\u00e7 talep (\u00fclke i\u00e7indeki t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m) \u00fczerindeki toplam etki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir.\n\nYak\u0131t maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131, hane b\u00fct\u00e7eleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r ve zorunlu olmayan (ertelenebilir) harcamalar\u0131 azaltabilir. Enerji maliyetleri bir\u00e7ok \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetin fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131d\u0131k\u00e7a, ekonomi genelinde t\u00fcketici talebi zay\u0131flayabilir.\n\n\u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrerken WTI ham petrol (ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye 2022\u2019deki ilk enerji \u015fokundan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu geli\u015fme Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi; Kanada dolar\u0131 y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli bir tarihe kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7) kullanarak CAD\u2019de (Kanada dolar\u0131) y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon kurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u0131\u015f ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131 (ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithalat fiyatlar\u0131na g\u00f6re durumu) net enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Kanada i\u00e7in iyile\u015fiyor.\n\n<h3>Enflasyon ve Politika A\u00e7maz\u0131<\/h3>\nHane harcamalar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilme art\u0131k bir tahmin de\u011fil. Statistics Canada\u2019n\u0131n \u015eubat 2026 T\u00dcFE raporu (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) man\u015fet enflasyonun %3,8\u2019e yeniden h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ana kayna\u011f\u0131 enerjiydi. Bu durum t\u00fcketiciyi do\u011frudan etkiledi: Ocak ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %0,5 ile beklenmedik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi ve zay\u0131fl\u0131k a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 harcama kalemlerinden geldi. Bu tablo, akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin di\u011fer harcamalar\u0131 \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d do\u011fruluyor.\n\nBu dinamik Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (BoC) zor bir noktaya getiriyor; 1970\u2019lerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen stagflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 (y\u00fcksek enflasyon + zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme) hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. BoC, mart ba\u015f\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temel faiz oran\u0131) sabit tuttu ancak kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyona dair endi\u015felerini vurgulad\u0131; b\u00f6ylece \u015fimdilik faiz indirimi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 rafa kald\u0131rd\u0131. BoC Gecelik Faiz Oran\u0131 vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (gelecekteki faiz seviyesine dair s\u00f6zle\u015fme) opsiyon stratejileri, ileriki toplant\u0131lara ili\u015fkin artan belirsizli\u011fi fiyatlamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.\n\nHisse taraf\u0131nda bu ortam, sekt\u00f6rel ayr\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor. S&#038;P\/TSX sekt\u00f6r endeksleri (Kanada borsas\u0131ndaki sekt\u00f6r performans\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeksler) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlarla \u201cpair trade\u201d (iki varl\u0131kta e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak birinde uzun, di\u011ferinde k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak farktan yararlanma) kurulabilir. Enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7lenme s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; 2026\u2019da y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana genel piyasay\u0131 %12 geride b\u0131rakacak \u015fekilde geride b\u0131rakt\u0131 (daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi). Bu da enerji \u00fcreticilerinde uzun (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan) pozisyon al\u0131p, Kanada hanelerindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa en duyarl\u0131 olan iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim hisselerinde k\u0131sa (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan) pozisyon almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kanada GSYH\u2019si 4\u00c725\u2019te stok erimesiyle %0,6 darald\u0131. \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 petrol\u00fc 110 dolara ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131p CAD\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon %3,8; BoC s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Enerji hisseleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30534\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}