{"id":30530,"date":"2026-03-17T16:04:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T16:04:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbanktan-fritsch-iran-catismasi-sirasinda-altin-5-geriledi-guclu-dolar-ve-fed-beklentileri-altini-baskiladi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T16:04:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T16:04:58","slug":"commerzbanktan-fritsch-iran-catismasi-sirasinda-altin-5-geriledi-guclu-dolar-ve-fed-beklentileri-altini-baskiladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbanktan-fritsch-iran-catismasi-sirasinda-altin-5-geriledi-guclu-dolar-ve-fed-beklentileri-altini-baskiladi\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019tan Fritsch: \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda alt\u0131n %5 geriledi; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve Fed beklentileri alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n, troy ons ba\u015f\u0131na 5.000 dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f iki bu\u00e7uk hafta \u00f6nce ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri fiyat yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 geriledi.\n\nDaha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131 fiyat\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Alt\u0131n ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren ve alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131 takip eden fonlar) para giri\u015fi yerine para \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nSon d\u00f6nemde alt\u0131n, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lense bile zaman zaman y\u00fckselebiliyordu. Bu kez, ABD\u2019de faiz indirimi beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ek bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.\n\nGe\u00e7en hafta sonu itibar\u0131yla Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemleri (piyasan\u0131n Fed politika faizinin gelece\u011fine dair fiyatlamas\u0131), y\u0131l sonuna kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) bir indirimi bile fiyatlamaz hale geldi. Sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana fiyatlamadan neredeyse 50 baz puanl\u0131k indirim beklentisi silindi.\n\nBu de\u011fi\u015fim, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) riskleriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Daha az faiz indirimi ya da daha y\u00fcksek faiz, alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n \u201cf\u0131rsat maliyetini\u201d (faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n yerine faiz veren \u00fcr\u00fcnleri se\u00e7memenin maliyeti) art\u0131r\u0131r.\n\nPiyasalar faiz indirimi beklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse alt\u0131n y\u00fckselebilir. Ancak sava\u015f\u0131n ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fine dair belirsizlik ve petrol arz\u0131nda aksama riski (petrol tedarikinin bozulmas\u0131 ihtimali) Fed\u2019in temkinli kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.\n\nBu nedenle yakla\u015fan FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 veren kurulun toplant\u0131s\u0131) alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131na yeni bir destek sa\u011flamas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.\n\nAlt\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde de\u011ferini korumas\u0131 beklenen varl\u0131k) gibi davranmamas\u0131, fiyat\u0131n 5.000 dolar civar\u0131nda zorlanmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k %5. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011ferlenme besliyor. Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) son d\u00f6nemde 107,5 ile aylard\u0131r en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu, alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.\n\nPiyasa, Fed beklentilerini sert \u015fekilde yeniden fiyatlad\u0131 ve bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in beklenen faiz indirimlerinin neredeyse 50 baz puanl\u0131k k\u0131sm\u0131 fiyatlardan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bunun do\u011frudan nedeni, artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesi. Ge\u00e7en haftaki \u015eubat 2026 T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7en veri) verisi de beklentilerin \u00fczerinde, %3,8 geldi. 2022\u2019deki h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, alt\u0131n \u201cta\u015f\u0131ma maliyeti\u201d artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterir; yani faiz y\u00fckselince alt\u0131n elde tutmak g\u00f6rece daha az cazip olur.\n\nSon iki haftan\u0131n verileri de bu havay\u0131 do\u011fruluyor: b\u00fcy\u00fck alt\u0131n ETF\u2019lerinden net 3 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde para \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 izlendi. Oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) da y\u00fcksek; VIX (ABD borsas\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k endeksi) 28 civar\u0131nda. Bu da opsiyon (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00fczerinden do\u011frudan uzun ya da k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131 pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor. B\u00f6yle bir ortamda alt\u0131n i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, y\u00fcksek maliyet ve prim erimesi (\u00f6dedi\u011finiz opsiyon priminin zamanla de\u011fer kaybetmesi) nedeniyle pahal\u0131 bir strateji olabilir.\n\nOpsiyonlar\u0131n pahal\u0131 oldu\u011fu bu ko\u015fullarda, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131ktan ve yatay ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011filimli fiyattan faydalanan stratejiler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. 5.200 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki seviyelerde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: \u015fu anki fiyata g\u00f6re k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) spread\u2019i satmak, prim (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) toplarken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Bu pozisyon, vade sonunda alt\u0131n 5.200 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.\n\nD\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi i\u00e7in ana risk yakla\u015fan FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131. Piyasa genel olarak temkinli bir ton bekliyor; ancak beklenmedik \u015fekilde \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (dovish: faiz indirimi ve gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) mesajlar, faiz indirimi ihtimalini yeniden canland\u0131rarak sert bir ters hareket yaratabilir. Bu nedenle, olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemlerde pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bu toplant\u0131 riski dikkate al\u0131narak ayarlanmal\u0131.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alt\u0131nda g\u00fcvenli liman \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131: 5.000 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunma zor. \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla %5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve ETF \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor; Fed indirim beklentisi silindi, FOMC\u2019den destek beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30530","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30530"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30530\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30530"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30530"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30530"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}