{"id":30518,"date":"2026-03-17T13:05:24","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T13:05:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/societe-generale-stratejistleri-hurmuz-uzerinden-petrol-akisinin-sert-dustugunu-ve-uretim-kesintilerinin-hizlandigini-bildiriyor-kuresel-arz-soklari-derinlesiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T13:05:24","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T13:05:24","slug":"societe-generale-stratejistleri-hurmuz-uzerinden-petrol-akisinin-sert-dustugunu-ve-uretim-kesintilerinin-hizlandigini-bildiriyor-kuresel-arz-soklari-derinlesiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/societe-generale-stratejistleri-hurmuz-uzerinden-petrol-akisinin-sert-dustugunu-ve-uretim-kesintilerinin-hizlandigini-bildiriyor-kuresel-arz-soklari-derinlesiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Societe Generale stratejistleri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00fczerinden petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve \u00fcretim kesintilerinin h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiriyor; k\u00fcresel arz \u015foklar\u0131 derinle\u015fiyor"},"content":{"rendered":"H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn (mb\/g) seviyesinde oldu\u011fu tahmin ediliyor; bu, ortalama seviyelere g\u00f6re 19,5 mb\/g daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. B\u00f6lgesel boru hatlar\u0131yla (petrol\u00fc deniz yoluna girmeden karadan ta\u015f\u0131yan hatlar) y\u00f6nlendirme yap\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k 17 mb\/g petrol fiilen piyasaya ula\u015fam\u0131yor.\n\nYeniden y\u00f6nlendirme se\u00e7enekleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan ihracat k\u0131s\u0131tlan\u0131yor ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki rafineri kapasitesinin (ham petrol\u00fc benzin, motorin, jet yak\u0131t\u0131 gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlere \u00e7eviren tesislerin kapasitesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 mb\/g\u2019lik k\u0131sm\u0131 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kald\u0131. Bu durum, i\u015fletme k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ve altyap\u0131ya y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi; \u00fcr\u00fcn arz\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 itiyor.\n\nAvrupa, \u00fcr\u00fcn stoklar\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131yor ve ticari ile stratejik depolarda (\u015firketlerin ve devletin acil durum i\u00e7in tuttu\u011fu depolar) yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyon varil jet yak\u0131t\u0131 bulunduruyor. Bu miktar, K\u00f6rfez kaynakl\u0131 jet arz\u0131nda 300 bin varil\/g\u00fcnl\u00fck (kb\/g) a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 birka\u00e7 ay kar\u015f\u0131layabilir.\n\nK\u00f6rfez\u2019in Avrupa, Afrika ve Asya\u2019ya arz\u0131 nedeniyle orta distilatlarda (\u00f6zellikle motorin ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131 gibi \u201corta\u201d a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131ktaki \u00fcr\u00fcnler) bask\u0131 art\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, Kuzeydo\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n petrokimya sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde (kimyasal \u00fcretimde kullan\u0131lan sanayi) nafta (petrokimya i\u00e7in ham madde olarak kullan\u0131lan hafif petrol \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc) taraf\u0131nda da s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. BAE ve Katar\u2019dan LPG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f petrol gaz\u0131; propan\/b\u00fctan kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131 yak\u0131t) sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ise propan piyasas\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor.\n\nKapat\u0131lan \u00fcretim (shut-in: g\u00fcvenlik, teknik ya da lojistik nedenlerle zorunlu olarak durdurulan \u00fcretim) 7 mb\/g seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor ve g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde \u00e7ift haneli seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Daha y\u00fcksek \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131 ve politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda yeniden dengeye ge\u00e7i\u015fi h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor.\n\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 neredeyse durma noktas\u0131na gelirken, ilk tepki ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok daha yukar\u0131 gidece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek olur. Brent zaten varil ba\u015f\u0131na 155 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, 2025 sonundaki k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli s\u0131\u00e7ramadan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (future: ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131malar\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 ile artan oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendirmeleri g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.\n\nK\u00f6rfez\u2019de rafineri kapasitesindeki g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 milyon varillik kay\u0131p, \u00fcr\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 ham petrolden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve rafineri marjlar\u0131nda (ham petrol ile \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyat\u0131 fark\u0131ndan do\u011fan k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k) f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. 3:2:1 crack spread (rafineri k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge: 3 varil ham petrolden 2 varil benzin ve 1 varil motorin \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla hesaplanan \u00fcr\u00fcn-ham fark\u0131) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine f\u0131rlad\u0131; modern d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir seviye. Bu fark\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in benzin ve motorin vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun, ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan) pozisyonlarla i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\nAvrupa\u2019n\u0131n stok tamponu (beklenmedik arz \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 elde tutulan stok) \u00f6zellikle motorin ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131 gibi orta distilatlarda beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 eriyor. Son Euroilstock verileri, \u015eubat 2026\u2019da 15 milyon varillik stok \u00e7ekili\u015fini (draw: stoktan kullan\u0131m) do\u011frulad\u0131; bu, kay\u0131tlardaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Bu, b\u00f6lge k\u00fcresel piyasadan ikame varil (yerine konacak yeni tedarik) bulmak i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek fiyat vermek zorunda kal\u0131rken, gasoil (Avrupa\u2019da motorin t\u00fcr\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcn) ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131 swaplar\u0131nda (swap: belirli d\u00f6nem\/\u015fartlarda fiyat\u0131 sabitleyen t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n giderek daha k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nSanayi \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in kritik piyasalarda da s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k belirgin; \u00f6zellikle Asya\u2019n\u0131n petrokimya sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in nafta taraf\u0131nda. Benzer \u015fekilde, LPG sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 propan fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rat\u0131yor; bu da \u0131s\u0131nma ve sanayi kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 etkiliyor. Bu tablo, Brent\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 nafta swaplar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon gibi belirli \u00fcr\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck t\u00fcrev i\u015flemlerin (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fme) y\u00fcksek getiri sunabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n

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Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131; g\u00fcnl\u00fck 17 mb\/g piyasaya ula\u015fam\u0131yor. K\u00f6rfez rafinerileri 2 mb\/g devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131 u\u00e7uyor. Brent 155$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde; crack spread rekor, stoklar eriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30518","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30518","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30518"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30518\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30518"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30518"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30518"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}