{"id":30495,"date":"2026-03-17T08:05:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T08:05:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rbanin-faiz-artirimina-ragmen-aud-zayiflarken-aud-jpy-asya-islemlerinde-11250-civarina-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T08:05:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T08:05:13","slug":"rbanin-faiz-artirimina-ragmen-aud-zayiflarken-aud-jpy-asya-islemlerinde-11250-civarina-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rbanin-faiz-artirimina-ragmen-aud-zayiflarken-aud-jpy-asya-islemlerinde-11250-civarina-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ra\u011fmen, AUD zay\u0131flarken AUD\/JPY Asya i\u015flemlerinde 112,50 civar\u0131na geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/JPY Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde \u00f6nceki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi ve 112,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) faiz karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131.\n\nRBA, Mart ay\u0131nda politika faizini (Resmi Nakit Faizi – piyasadaki gecelik faiz oran\u0131) 3,85\u2019ten %4,10\u2019a y\u00fckseltti. Piyasalar, bir sonraki ad\u0131mlara dair sinyal i\u00e7in Ba\u015fkan Michele Bullock\u2019un bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 izliyor.\n\n

RBA Enflasyon Bask\u0131s\u0131 ve Faiz G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek Avustralya\u2019da enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Avustralya ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalmas\u0131, RBA\u2019ya enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131rken b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye verilecek zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama alan\u0131 tan\u0131yor.\n\nJapon Yeni\u2019nin, Japon yetkililerin olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla destek bulmas\u0131 halinde AUD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir. Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, piyasalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yetkililerin d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 dahil harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.\n\nJaponya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2 hedefine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve politikan\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in belirlenece\u011fini ifade etti. BoJ\u2019un Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc faizi %0,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya para politikas\u0131n\u0131 sertle\u015ftirme) se\u00e7ene\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakabilir.\n\nAUD\/JPY\u2019de 112,50 seviyesi \u00e7evresinde belirgin bir \u00e7eki\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. RBA, son toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %4,35\u2019te sabit tutarak s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu korudu. Bunun nedeni, 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde %3,5 olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen y\u00fcksek enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde devam etmesi. Bu \u015fahin duru\u015f (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faizde gev\u015femeye yana\u015fmayan yakla\u015f\u0131m), Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\n

Opsiyon Pozisyonlanmas\u0131 ve M\u00fcdahale Riski<\/h3>\nBu politika fark\u0131\u2014BoJ faizinin yaln\u0131zca %0,25 olmas\u0131\u2014paritenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrinin ana nedeni. T\u00fcrev (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in AUD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u00d6nemli faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (getiri fark\u0131) ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemi (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m) yapanlar\u0131 \u00e7ekmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Bu strateji, olas\u0131 kazanca kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flarken maksimum riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlar.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131n dikkatli olmak gerekiyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc parite Japonya\u2019n\u0131n resmi m\u00fcdahale ilgisini \u00e7ekebilecek bir b\u00f6lgede i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2024 ve 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen m\u00fcdahaleler (yetkililerin kura do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131mla etkisi) hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Japon otoritelerin Yen\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131na tahamm\u00fcl\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar (yetkililerin piyasay\u0131 y\u00f6nlendiren a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu durum parite i\u00e7in bir tavan olu\u015fturuyor ve ani bir ters harekete kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: riski azaltma) amac\u0131yla sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek haline getiriyor.\n\nM\u00fcdahale riski, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan her iki y\u00f6nde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen straddle veya strangle gibi opsiyon stratejilerini kullanabilir. (Straddle: ayn\u0131 vade\/ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call+put; Strangle: ayn\u0131 vade\/farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call+put.) AUD\/JPY bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %11,5\u2019e yakla\u015farak bu belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.\n\nArka planda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin yeniden y\u00fckselmesi, WTI ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolara do\u011fru itti. (WTI: ABD referans petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc.) Avustralya b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki (petrol gibi ham madde fiyatlar\u0131) bu art\u0131\u015f hem ekonomiyi hem de Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Bu da RBA\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n zamanda faiz indirimine gitmesinin zor olabilece\u011fine dair temel bir gerek\u00e7e sunuyor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AUD\/JPY 112,50\u2019de kritik e\u015fikte: RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin faizi ve petrol destekli AUD, BoJ\u2019un d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiziyle carry trade\u2019i canl\u0131 tutuyor. Ancak Japon m\u00fcdahale riski, y\u00fckseli\u015fe tavan ve oynakl\u0131\u011fa zemin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30495"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30495\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}